How Water Subsidies Affect Air Quality in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

The members of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC) have successfully addressed all water resource problems throughout the region from the supply side. That is, GCC nations have dealt with water scarcity by increasing the supply of water and continuing to provide subsidized water. However, there are few efforts to address and improve urban water supplies through metering, pricing and other efficiency measures to reduce water demand. Instead, the needed potable water comes from the construction of desalination plants that are energy intensive and contribute to air pollution. This paper examines how water subsidies might affect water consumption in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, and how changes in consumption can in turn affect production levels, which determine total emissions of NOx, SOx, particulate matter, and CO2 into the atmosphere from desalination plants.Master of Science in Environmental Engineerin

Effect of domestic water use on air pollutant emissions in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Abstract The members of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf have typically addressed water scarcity problems by building energy-intensive desalination plants. Few efforts have addressed water scarcity through metering, pricing, and other efficiency measures to reduce demand. This paper examines how decreased leakage in the water distribution system and decreased residential water use in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, could decrease air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from desalination plants. We developed a probabilistic model to predict the effects of water use reductions on pollutant emissions from Abu Dhabi's major independent water and power plants, which use a combination of multi-stage flash distillation and multi-effect distillation to produce fresh water from seawater drawn from the Arabian Gulf. We examine three categories of scenarios for reducing water use: increasing the price signal to residential users, instituting demand management programs among residential users, and reducing water loss in the distribution system. Our analysis suggests that water conservation price incentives could reduce air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions by 1% to 5%, depending on assumptions about how households respond to the incentives. Demand-side management programs curbing per capita water use to levels typical of the Singapore or the UK would curb emissions by 10% or 11%, respectively. Reducing water loss during distribution from the current high level of 35% to 15% (similar to loss rates in other developed nations) could cut emissions by more than 3%. Overall, our analysis suggests that high per capita water use contributes to ambient air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in Abu Dhabi

Reducing Emergency Department Visits for Acute Gastrointestinal Illnesses in North Carolina (USA) by Extending Community Water Service

BACKGROUND: Previous analyses have suggested that unregulated private drinking water wells carry a higher risk of exposure to microbial contamination than regulated community water systems. In North Carolina, ~35% of the state's population relies on private wells, but the health impact associated with widespread reliance on such unregulated drinking water sources is unknown. OBJECTIVES: We estimated the total number of emergency department visits for acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) attributable to microbial contamination in private wells in North Carolina per year, the costs of those visits, and the potential health benefits of extending regulated water service to households currently relying on private wells for their drinking water. METHODS: We developed a population intervention model using 2007-2013 data from all 122 North Carolina emergency departments along with microbial contamination data for all 2,120 community water systems and for 16,138 private well water samples collected since 2008. RESULTS: An estimated 29,400 (95% CI: 26,600, 32,200) emergency department visits per year for acute gastrointestinal illness were attributable to microbial contamination in drinking water, constituting approximately 7.3% (95% CI: 6.6, 7.9%) of all AGI-related visits. Of these attributable cases, 99% (29,200; 95% CI: 26,500, 31,900) were associated with private well contamination. The estimated statewide annual cost of emergency department visits attributable to microbiological contamination of drinking water is 40.2 million USD (95% CI: 2.58 million USD, 193 million USD), of which 39.9 million USD (95% CI: 2.56 million USD, 192 million USD) is estimated to arise from private well contamination. An estimated 2,920 (95% CI: 2,650, 3,190) annual emergency department visits could be prevented by extending community water service to 10% of the population currently relying on private wells. CONCLUSIONS: This research provides new evidence that extending regulated community water service to populations currently relying on private wells may decrease the population burden of acute gastrointestinal illness. CITATION: DeFelice NB, Johnston JE, Gibson JM. 2016. Reducing emergency department visits for acute gastrointestinal illnesses in North Carolina (USA) by extending community water service. Environ Health Perspect 124:1583-1591; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP160

Use of temperature to improve West Nile virus forecasts

Ecological and laboratory studies have demonstrated that temperature modulates West Nile virus (WNV) transmission dynamics and spillover infection to humans. Here we explore whether inclusion of temperature forcing in a model depicting WNV transmission improves WNV forecast accuracy relative to a baseline model depicting WNV transmission without temperature forcing. Both models are optimized using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams: mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. Each coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of WNV for 110 outbreak years from among 12 geographically diverse United States counties. The temperature-forced model improves forecast accuracy for much of the outbreak season. From the end of July until the beginning of October, a timespan during which 70% of human cases are reported, the temperature-forced model generated forecasts of the total number of human cases over the next 3 weeks, total number of human cases over the season, the week with the highest percentage of infectious mosquitoes, and the peak percentage of infectious mosquitoes that on average increased absolute forecast accuracy 5%, 10%, 12%, and 6%, respectively, over the non-temperature forced baseline model. These results indicate that use of temperature forcing improves WNV forecast accuracy and provide further evidence that temperature influences rates of WNV transmission. The findings provide a foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal WNV outbreaks and their use as a quantitative decision support tool for public health officials and mosquito control programs

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus(WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input

Annual cancer risks from chemicals in North Carolina community water systems

<p>Motivated partly by concerns about cancer, the U.S. Congress in 1986 amended the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) by requiring that community water systems monitor 81 chemicals and remove those detected at concentrations above health-based standards. No prior research has used the resulting 30 years of monitoring data to analyze cancer risks from chemicals in US drinking water. To fill this gap, this paper uses chemical monitoring data from North Carolina's (NC's) 2,120 community water systems along with a risk assessment approach commonly applied in global burden of disease studies to quantify cancer risks of regulated chemicals in drinking water. The results indicate that 0.30% of NC cancer deaths are attributable to regulated drinking water contaminants and that the average annual individual risk is 7.2 × 10⁻⁶. More than 99% of this risk arises from disinfection by-products, with the remaining risk mostly attributable to arsenic and alpha particle radiation. In no water system does the combined risk from chemicals other than disinfection by-products, arsenic, or alpha particles exceed 10⁻⁴. The results suggest that regulated chemicals pose very low cancer risks and that risks from chemicals other than disinfection by-products, arsenic, and alpha particles are negligible in NC community water systems.</p

Neighborhood-level disparities and subway utilization during the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City

Neighborhood disadvantage and capacity to socially distance have been discussed as factors involved in COVID-19 disparities. Here, the authors develop an inequity index on zip code-level infections, and examine differences in neighborhood utilization of subways in New York City

A Spatially Resolved and Environmentally Informed Forecast Model of West Nile Virus in Coachella Valley, California

Abstract West Nile virus (WNV) is the most significant arbovirus in the United States in terms of both morbidity and mortality. West Nile exists in a complex transmission cycle between avian hosts and the arthropod vector, Culex spp. mosquitoes. Human spillover events occur when humans are bitten by an infected mosquito and predicting these rates of infection and therefore the risk to humans may be associated with fluctuations in environmental conditions. In this study, we evaluate the hydrological and meteorological drivers associated with mosquito biology and viral development to determine if these associations can be used to forecast seasonal mosquito infection rates with WNV in the Coachella Valley of California. We developed and tested a spatially resolved ensemble forecast model of the WNV mosquito infection rate in the Coachella Valley using 17 years of mosquito surveillance data and North American Land Data Assimilation System‐2 environmental data. Our multi‐model inference system indicated that the combination of a cooler and dryer winter, followed by a wetter and warmer spring, and a cooler than normal summer was most predictive of the prevalence of West Nile positive mosquitoes in the Coachella Valley. The ability to make accurate early season predictions of West Nile risk has the potential to allow local abatement districts and public health entities to implement early season interventions such as targeted adulticiding and public health messaging before human transmission occurs. Such early and targeted interventions could better mitigate the risk of WNV to humans