Seismic source characterization of the Alpine foreland in the context of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by PEGASOS Expert Group 1 (EG1a)

Seismic source characterization is performed as part of the PEGASOS project for the assessment of the seismic hazard at the 4 sites of the Swiss Nuclear Power Plants. The analysis is performed according to the Level 4 procedures for expert elicitation defined in the guidelines of the US Nuclear Regulatory Committee whereby the quantification of uncertainties plays a crucial role. According to our analysis, which is one amongst four that were performed in the frame of PEGASOS, the most important epistemic uncertainty is related to the question as to weather basement-rooted faults at the margins of pre-existing Permo-Carboniferous troughs are prone for compressive or transpressive reactivation under the present-day stress field or not. The question after the present-day style of deformation in the Alpine foreland (thick-skinned versus thin-skinned) is closely related to this key question. Together with the consideration of uncertainties regarding the mapping of seismogenic zones and/or line sources alternative zonations are presented in form of a logic tree with 21 branches. Area sources play a predominant role in the working area located at the margin of a diffuse plate boundary. Earthquake recurrence relationships are discussed by taking into account a series of uncertainties. These concern the evaluation of b-values and the evaluation of a-values once the b-values were fixed. Both parameters in the Gutenberg-Richter law are based on non-perfect and incomplete catalogue data that were carefully analysed beforehand. Since PEGASOS demanded an analysis of annual probabilities down to one event in 107years, the question after the value of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude Mmax and related error in Mmax estimates plays a crucial role. We estimate Mmax by using geological as well as statistical methods. Mmax = 6.9 cannot be excluded in most areas, in the Basel area Mmax = 7.3 is possible. Uncertainties in a, b and Mmax are again discussed in form of a logic tree, this time with 18 branches. Hence the final logic tree has 378 branches and represents the seismic source characterization input into PSHA that takes account of all uncertainties we are aware o

Seismic hazard for the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Part 2: broadband scenarios at the Fier Compressor Station (Albania)

AbstractTo ensure environmental and public safety, critical facilities require rigorous seismic hazard analysis to define seismic input for their design. We consider the case of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which is a pipeline that transports natural gas from the Caspian Sea to southern Italy, crossing active faults and areas characterized by high seismicity levels. For this pipeline, we develop a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for the broader area, and, for the selected critical sites, we perform deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA), by calculating shaking scenarios that account for the physics of the source, propagation, and site effects. This paper presents a DSHA for a compressor station located at Fier, along the Albanian coastal region. Considering the location of the most hazardous faults in the study site, revealed by the PSHA disaggregation, we model the ground motion for two different scenarios to simulate the worst-case scenario for this compressor station. We compute broadband waveforms for receivers on soft soils by applying specific transfer functions estimated from the available geotechnical data for the Fier area. The simulations reproduce the variability observed in the ground motion recorded in the near-earthquake source. The vertical ground motion is strong for receivers placed above the rupture areas and should not be ignored in seismic designs; furthermore, our vertical simulations reproduce the displacement and the static offset of the ground motion highlighted in recent studies. This observation confirms the importance of the DSHA analysis in defining the expected pipeline damage functions and permanent soil deformations

Seismic source characterization of the Alpine foreland in the context of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by PEGSOS Expert Group 1 (EG1a)

Seismic source characterization is performed as part of the PEGASOS project for the assessment of the seismic hazard at the 4 sites of the Swiss Nuclear Power Plants. The analysis is performed according to the Level 4 procedures for expert elicitation defined in the guidelines of the US Nuclear Regulatory Committee whereby the quantification of uncertainties plays a crucial role. According to our analysis, which is one amongst four that were performed in the frame of PEGASOS, the most important epistemic uncertainty is related to the question as to weather basement-rooted faults at the margins of pre-existing Permo-Carboniferous troughs are prone for compressive or transpressive reactivation under the present-day stress field or not. The question after the present-day style of deformation in the Alpine foreland (thick-skinned versus thin-skinned) is closely related to this key question. Together with the consideration of uncertainties regarding the mapping of seismogenic zones and/or line sources alternative zonations are presented in form of a logic tree with 21 branches. Area sources play a predominant role in the working area located at the margin of a diffuse plate boundary. Earthquake recurrence relationships are discussed by taking into account a series of uncertainties. These concern the evaluation of b-values and the evaluation of a-values once the b-values were fixed. Both parameters in the Gutenberg-Richter law are based on non-perfect and incomplete catalogue data that were carefully analysed beforehand. Since PEGASOS demanded an analysis of annual probabilities down to one event in 107 years, the question after the value of the maximum possible earthquake magnitude Mmax and related error in Mmax estimates plays a crucial role. We estimate Mmax by using geological as well as statistical methods. Mmax = 6.9 cannot be excluded in most areas, in the Basel area Mmax = 7.3 is possible. Uncertainties in a, b and Mmax are again discussed in form of a logic tree, this time with 18 branches. Hence the final logic tree has 378 branches and represents the seismic source characterization input into PSHA that takes account of all uncertainties we are aware of. Betr. u.a. Erdbebengefährdung in der Region Base

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Characterization of the expected seismic damage for a critical infrastructure: the case of the oil pipeline in Friuli Venezia Giulia (NE Italy)

Seismic codes using the performance-based approach for seismic design of critical and important structures generally refer to seismic hazard which takes into account a lower exceedance probability than that used for ordinary buildings. In the present study, the seismic hazard for an oil pipeline, located in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy), has been calculated in terms of PGA and PGV with a 2475-year return period, and compared with estimates calculated with the standard 475-year return period used for ordinary buildings. The results, referring to three soil types (rock, stiff soil, and soft soil), have been combined through GIS technology in a single map (soil seismic hazard map) on the basis of the local lithological characterization. The major earthquakes considered in the study have been associated with the linear sources found in the database of Italian seismic sources, considering the characteristic earthquake model. The regional seismogenic zonation has been added to the linear sources in order to consider minor seismicity as described by the Gutenberg-Richter model. Quaternary faults in the broader Trieste area, long enough to justify, at least, a characteristic magnitude of 6, have been added in the source model to take into account unlikely but possible unknown sources. The Transalpine Oil Pipeline, which connects Trieste (Italy) to Ingolstadt (Germany), is the crude-oil distribution system considered in the present study. It consists of a storage tank, compressor stations, and buried pipeline. For the characterization of the expected damage to the infrastructure in case of an earthquake, we have used underground pipeline seismic vulnerability curves that relate a performance indicator, such as the reparation rate (number of ruptures per kilometre), with a representative ground motion parameter (e.g., PGA or PGV). In this study, we have considered as performance indicator the consequences of a rupture in the pipeline caused by a seismic event