Geophysical features of permafrost in the Canadian Beaufort Sea

第6回極域科学シンポジウム分野横断セッション：[IA] 急変する北極気候システム及びその全球的な影響の総合的解明―GRENE北極気候変動研究事業研究成果報告2015―11月19日（木）　国立極地研究所１階交流アトリウ

Imaging the P‐Wave Velocity Structure of Arctic Subsea Permafrost Using Laplace‐Domain Full‐Waveform Inversion

Climate change in the Arctic has recently become a major scientific issue, and detailed information on the degradation of subsea permafrost on continental shelves in the Arctic is critical for understanding the major cause and effects of global warming, especially the release of greenhouse gases. The subsea permafrost at shallow depths beneath the Arctic continental shelves has significantly higher P‐wave velocities than the surrounding sediments. The distribution of subsea permafrost on Arctic continental shelves has been studied since the 1970s using seismic refraction methods. With seismic refraction data, the seismic velocity and the depth of the upper boundary of subsea permafrost can be determined. However, it is difficult to identify the lower boundary and the internal shape of permafrost. Here, we present two‐dimensional P‐wave velocity models of the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea by applying the Laplace‐domain full‐waveform inversion method to acquired multichannel seismic reflection data. With the inverted P‐wave velocity model, we identify anomalous high seismic velocities that originated from the subsea permafrost. Information on the two‐dimensional distribution of subsea permafrost on the Arctic continental shelf area, including the upper and lower bounds of subsea permafrost, are presented. Also, the two‐dimensional P‐wave velocity model allows us to estimate the thawing pattern and the shape of subsea permafrost structures. Our proposed P‐wave velocity models were verified by comparison with the previous distribution map of subsea permafrost from seismic refraction analyses, geothermal modeling, and well‐log data

Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties an vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO2 and CH4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH4/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon–climate modeling efforts

Effectiveness of preoperative staging in rectal cancer: digital rectal examination, endoluminal ultrasound or magnetic resonance imaging?

In rectal cancer, preoperative staging should identify early tumours suitable for treatment by surgery alone and locally advanced tumours that require therapy to induce tumour regression from the potential resection margin. Currently, local staging can be performed by digital rectal examination (DRE), endoluminal ultrasound (EUS) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Each staging method was compared for clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness. The accuracy of high-resolution MRI, DRE and EUS in identifying favourable, unfavourable and locally advanced rectal carcinomas in 98 patients undergoing total mesorectal excision was compared prospectively against the resection specimen pathological as the gold standard. Agreement between each staging modality with pathology assessment of tumour favourability was calculated with the chance-corrected agreement given as the kappa statistic, based on marginal homogenised data. Differences in effectiveness of the staging modalities were compared with differences in costs of the staging modalities to generate cost effectiveness ratios. Agreement between staging and histologic assessment of tumour favourability was 94% for MRI (kappa=0.81, s.e.=0.05; kappa(W)=0.83), compared with very poor agreements of 65% for DRE (kappa=0.08, s.e.=0.068, kappa(W)=0.16) and 69% for EUS (kappa=0.17, s.e.=0.065, kappa(W)=0.17). The resource benefits resulting from the use of MRI rather than DRE was 67164 UK pounds and 92244 UK pounds when MRI was used rather than EUS. Magnetic resonance imaging dominated both DRE and EUS on cost and clinical effectiveness by selecting appropriate patients for neoadjuvant therapy and justifies its use for local staging of rectal cancer patients

A decade of remotely sensed observations highlight complex processes linked to coastal permafrost bluff erosion in the Arctic

Eroding permafrost coasts are likely indicators and integrators of changes in the Arctic System as they are susceptible to the combined effects of declining sea ice extent, increases in open water duration, more frequent and impactful storms, sea-level rise, and warming permafrost. However, few observation sites in the Arctic have yet to link decadal-scale erosion rates with changing environmental conditions due to temporal data gaps. This study increases the temporal fidelity of coastal permafrost bluff observations using near-annual high spatial resolution (<1 m) satellite imagery acquired between 2008–2017 for a 9 km segment of coastline at Drew Point, Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska. Our results show that mean annual erosion for the 2007–2016 decade was 17.2 m yr−1, which is 2.5 times faster than historic rates, indicating that bluff erosion at this site is likely responding to changes in the Arctic System. In spite of a sustained increase in decadal-scale mean annual erosion rates, mean open water season erosion varied from 6.7 m yr−1 in 2010 to more than 22.0 m yr−1 in 2007, 2012, and 2016. This variability provided a range of coastal responses through which we explored the different roles of potential environmental drivers. The lack of significant correlations between mean open water season erosion and the environmental variables compiled in this study indicates that we may not be adequately capturing the environmental forcing factors, that the system is conditioned by long-term transient effects or extreme weather events rather than annual variability, or that other not yet considered factors may be responsible for the increased erosion occurring at Drew Point. Our results highlight an increase in erosion at Drew Point in the 21st century as well as the complexities associated with unraveling the factors responsible for changing coastal permafrost bluffs in the Arctic

DEVELOPMENTS IN GEOPHYSICAL WELL LOG ACQUISITION AND INTERPRETATION IN GAS HYDRATE SATURATED RESERVOIRS

There has been a dramatic increase in both the amount and type of geophysical well log data acquired in gas hydrate saturated rocks. Data has been acquired in both offshore and Arctic environments; its availability has shed light on the applicability of current tools and the potential usefulness of recently developed and developing technologies. Some of the more interesting areas of interest are related to the usefulness of nuclear elemental spectroscopy data and the comparison of thermal and epithermal neutron porosity measurements, the measurement of in-situ permeability, the interpretation of electrical borehole image and borehole sonic data. A key parameter for reservoir characterization and simulation is formation permeability. A reasonable understanding of this property is key to the development of future gas hydrate production. Typical applications of borehole image data are an appreciation of a reservoir’s geological environment. In hydrate saturated reservoirs, borehole images can also be used to assist in the understanding of the gas migratory path to the hydrate bearing formation. This paper presents a review of some of the current state of the art geophysical log measurements and their application in hydrate saturated reservoirs..Non UBCUnreviewe