Dealing with missing standard deviation and mean values in meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: a systematic review

Background: Rigorous, informative meta-analyses rely on availability of appropriate summary statistics or individual participant data. For continuous outcomes, especially those with naturally skewed distributions, summary information on the mean or variability often goes unreported. While full reporting of original trial data is the ideal, we sought to identify methods for handling unreported mean or variability summary statistics in meta-analysis. Methods: We undertook two systematic literature reviews to identify methodological approaches used to deal with missing mean or variability summary statistics. Five electronic databases were searched, in addition to the Cochrane Colloquium abstract books and the Cochrane Statistics Methods Group mailing list archive. We also conducted cited reference searching and emailed topic experts to identify recent methodological developments. Details recorded included the description of the method, the information required to implement the method, any underlying assumptions and whether the method could be readily applied in standard statistical software. We provided a summary description of the methods identified, illustrating selected methods in example meta-analysis scenarios. Results: For missing standard deviations (SDs), following screening of 503 articles, fifteen methods were identified in addition to those reported in a previous review. These included Bayesian hierarchical modelling at the meta-analysis level; summary statistic level imputation based on observed SD values from other trials in the meta-analysis; a practical approximation based on the range; and algebraic estimation of the SD based on other summary statistics. Following screening of 1124 articles for methods estimating the mean, one approximate Bayesian computation approach and three papers based on alternative summary statistics were identified. Illustrative meta-analyses showed that when replacing a missing SD the approximation using the range minimised loss of precision and generally performed better than omitting trials. When estimating missing means, a formula using the median, lower quartile and upper quartile performed best in preserving the precision of the meta-analysis findings, although in some scenarios, omitting trials gave superior results. Conclusions: Methods based on summary statistics (minimum, maximum, lower quartile, upper quartile, median) reported in the literature facilitate more comprehensive inclusion of randomised controlled trials with missing mean or variability summary statistics within meta-analyses

The Relative Importance of Clinical, Economic, Patient Values and Feasibility Criteria in Cancer Drug Reimbursement in Canada:A Revealed Preferences Analysis of Recommendations of the Pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review 2011–2017

Background: Most Canadian provinces and territories rely on the pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review (pCODR) to provide recommendations regarding public reimbursement of cancer drugs. The pCODR review process considers four dimensions of value—clinical benefit, economic evaluation, patient-based values and adoption feasibility—but they do not define weights for individual decision criteria or an acceptable threshold for any of the criteria. Given this implicit review process, it is of interest to understand which factors appear to carry the most weight in pCODR recommendations using a revealed preferences approach. Methods: Using publicly available decision summaries (n = 91) describing submissions and resulting recommendations 2011–2017, we extracted ten attributes that characterized each submission. Using logistic regression, we identified statistically significant attributes and estimated their relative impact in final recommendations. Results: Clinical aspects appear to carry the greatest weight in the decision to reject or not reject, along with aspects of patient value (treatments with no alternatives were less likely to be rejected). Cost effectiveness does not appear to play a role in the initial decision to reject or not reject but is critical in full versus conditional approvals. There is evidence of a maximum acceptable threshold of around $Can140,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Conclusion: A set of factors driving pCODR recommendations is identifiable, supporting the consistency of the review process. However, the implicit nature of the review process and the difficulty of extracting and interpreting some of the attribute levels used in the analysis suggests that the process may still lack full transparency

Balancing equity and efficiency in the Dutch basic benefits package using the principle of proportional shortfall

Economic evaluations are increasingly used to inform decisions regarding the allocation of scarce health care resources. To systematically incorporate societal preferences into these evaluations, quality-adjusted life year gains could be weighted according to some equity principle, the most suitable of which is a matter of frequent debate. While many countries still struggle with equity concerns for priority setting in health care, the Netherlands has reached a broad consensus to use the concept of proportional shortfall. Our study evaluates the concept and its support in the Dutch health care context. We discuss arguments in the Netherlands for using proportional shortfall and difficulties in transitioning from principle to practice. In doing so, we address universal issues leading to a systematic consideration of equity concerns for priority setting in health care. The article thus has relevance to all countries struggling with the formalization of equity concerns for priority setting

Molecular Genetic Features of Polyploidization and Aneuploidization Reveal Unique Patterns for Genome Duplication in Diploid Malus

Polyploidization results in genome duplication and is an important step in evolution and speciation. The Malus genome confirmed that this genus was derived through auto-polyploidization, yet the genetic and meiotic mechanisms for polyploidization, particularly for aneuploidization, are unclear in this genus or other woody perennials. In fact the contribution of aneuploidization remains poorly understood throughout Plantae. We add to this knowledge by characterization of eupolyploidization and aneuploidization in 27,542 F1 seedlings from seven diploid Malus populations using cytology and microsatellite markers. We provide the first evidence that aneuploidy exceeds eupolyploidy in the diploid crosses, suggesting aneuploidization is a leading cause of genome duplication. Gametes from diploid Malus had a unique combinational pattern; ova preserved euploidy exclusively, while spermatozoa presented both euploidy and aneuploidy. All non-reduced gametes were genetically heterozygous, indicating first-division restitution was the exclusive mode for Malus eupolyploidization and aneuploidization. Chromosome segregation pattern among aneuploids was non-uniform, however, certain chromosomes were associated for aneuploidization. This study is the first to provide molecular evidence for the contribution of heterozygous non-reduced gametes to fitness in polyploids and aneuploids. Aneuploidization can increase, while eupolyploidization may decrease genetic diversity in their newly established populations. Auto-triploidization is important for speciation in the extant Malus. The features of Malus polyploidization confer genetic stability and diversity, and present heterozygosity, heterosis and adaptability for evolutionary selection. A protocol using co-dominant markers was proposed for accelerating apple triploid breeding program. A path was postulated for evolution of numerically odd basic chromosomes. The model for Malus derivation was considerably revised. Impacts of aneuploidization on speciation and evolution, and potential applications of aneuploids and polyploids in breeding and genetics for other species were evaluated in depth. This study greatly improves our understanding of evolution, speciation, and adaptation of the Malus genus, and provides strategies to exploit polyploidization in other species

The spatial range of peripheral collinear facilitation

Contrast detection thresholds for a central Gabor patch (target) can be modulated by the presence of co-oriented and collinear high contrast Gabors flankers. In foveal vision collinear facilitation can be observed for target-to-flankers relative distances beyond two times the wavelength (λ) of the Gabor's carrier, while for shorter relative distances (<2λ) there is suppression. These modulatory influences seem to disappear after 12λ. In this study, we measured contrast detection thresholds for different spatial frequencies (1, 4 and 6 cpd) and target-to-flankers relative distances ranging from 6 to 16λ, but with collinear configurations presented in near periphery at 4° of eccentricity. Results showed that in near periphery collinear facilitation extends beyond 12λ for the higher spatial frequencies tested (4 and 6 cpd), while it decays already at 10λ for the lowest spatial frequency used (i.e., 1 cpd). In addition, we found that increasing the spatial frequency the peak of collinear facilitation shifts towards larger target-to-flankers relative distances (expressed as multiples of the stimulus wavelength), an effect never reported neither for near peripheral nor for central vision. The results suggest that the peak and the spatial extent of collinear facilitation in near periphery depend on the spatial frequency of the stimuli used

Selecting Forecasting Methods

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods

Conscious perception and the modulatory role of dopamine: no effect of the dopamine D2 agonist cabergoline on visual masking, the attentional blink, and probabilistic discrimination

Rationale Conscious perception is thought to depend on global amplification of sensory input. In recent years, striatal dopamine has been proposed to be involved in gating information and conscious access, due to its modulatory influence on thalamocortical connectivity. Objectives Since much of the evidence that implicates striatal dopamine is correlational, we conducted a double-blind crossover pharmacological study in which we administered cabergoline—a dopamine D2 agonist—and placebo to 30 healthy participants. Under both conditions, we subjected participants to several well-established experimental conscious-perception paradigms, such as backward masking and the attentional blink task. Results We found no evidence in support of an effect of cabergoline on conscious perception: key behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) findings associated with each of these tasks were unaffected by cabergoline. Conclusions Our results cast doubt on a causal role for dopamine in visual perception. It remains an open possibility that dopamine has causal effects in other tasks, perhaps where perceptual uncertainty is more prominent

Synaptic NMDA receptor activity boosts intrinsic antioxidant defenses

Intrinsic antioxidant defenses are important for neuronal longevity. We found that in rat neurons, synaptic activity, acting via NMDA receptor (NMDAR) signaling, boosted antioxidant defenses by making changes to the thioredoxin-peroxiredoxin (Prx) system. Synaptic activity enhanced thioredoxin activity, facilitated the reduction of overoxidized Prxs and promoted resistance to oxidative stress. Resistance was mediated by coordinated transcriptional changes; synaptic NMDAR activity inactivated a previously unknown Forkhead box O target gene, the thioredoxin inhibitor Txnip. Conversely, NMDAR blockade upregulated Txnip in vivo and in vitro, where it bound thioredoxin and promoted vulnerability to oxidative damage. Synaptic activity also upregulated the Prx reactivating genes Sesn2 (sestrin 2) and Srxn1 (sulfiredoxin), via C/EBPβ and AP-1, respectively. Mimicking these expression changes was sufficient to strengthen antioxidant defenses. Trans-synaptic stimulation of synaptic NMDARs was crucial for boosting antioxidant defenses; chronic bath activation of all (synaptic and extrasynaptic) NMDARs induced no antioxidative effects. Thus, synaptic NMDAR activity may influence the progression of pathological processes associated with oxidative damage