Analysing cognitive test data: Distributions and non-parametric random effects

An important assumption in many linear mixed models is that the conditional distribution of the response variable is normal. This assumption is violated when the models are fitted to an outcome variable that counts the number of correctly answered questions in a questionnaire. Examples include investigations of cognitive decline where models are fitted to Mini Mental State Examination scores, the most widely used test to measure global cognition. Mini Mental State Examination scores take integer values in the 0–30 range, and its distribution has strong ceiling and floor effects. This article explores alternative distributions for the outcome variable in mixed models fitted to mini mental state examination scores from a longitudinal study of ageing. Model fit improved when a beta-binomial distribution was chosen as the distribution for the response variable

Statistical Inference for Valued-Edge Networks: Generalized Exponential Random Graph Models

Across the sciences, the statistical analysis of networks is central to the production of knowledge on relational phenomena. Because of their ability to model the structural generation of networks, exponential random graph models are a ubiquitous means of analysis. However, they are limited by an inability to model networks with valued edges. We solve this problem by introducing a class of generalized exponential random graph models capable of modeling networks whose edges are valued, thus greatly expanding the scope of networks applied researchers can subject to statistical analysis

Percentile reference values for anthropometric body composition indices in European children from the IDEFICS study

INTRODUCTION: To characterise the nutritional status in children with obesity or wasting conditions, European anthropometric reference values for body composition measures beyond the body mass index (BMI) are needed. Differentiated assessment of body composition in children has long been hampered by the lack of appropriate references. OBJECTIVES: The aim of our study is to provide percentiles for body composition indices in normal weight European children, based on the IDEFICS cohort (Identification and prevention of Dietary-and lifestyle-induced health Effects in Children and infantS). METHODS: Overall 18 745 2.0-10.9-year-old children from eight countries participated in the study. Children classified as overweight/obese or underweight according to IOTF (N = 5915) were excluded from the analysis. Anthropometric measurements (BMI (N = 12 830); triceps, subscapular, fat mass and fat mass index (N = 11 845-11 901); biceps, suprailiac skinfolds, sum of skinfolds calculated from skinfold thicknesses (N = 8129-8205), neck circumference (N = 12 241); waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio (N = 12 381)) were analysed stratified by sex and smoothed 1st, 3rd, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 97th and 99th percentile curves were calculated using GAMLSS. RESULTS: Percentile values of the most important anthropometric measures related to the degree of adiposity are depicted for European girls and boys. Age-and sex-specific differences were investigated for all measures. As an example, the 50th and 99th percentile values of waist circumference ranged from 50.7-59.2 cm and from 51.3-58.7 cm in 4.5-to < 5.0-year-old girls and boys, respectively, to 60.6-74.5 cm in girls and to 59.9-76.7 cm in boys at the age of 10.5-10.9 years. CONCLUSION: The presented percentile curves may aid a differentiated assessment of total and abdominal adiposity in European children

Alternative regression models to assess increase in childhood BMI

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Body mass index (BMI) data usually have skewed distributions, for which common statistical modeling approaches such as simple linear or logistic regression have limitations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Different regression approaches to predict childhood BMI by goodness-of-fit measures and means of interpretation were compared including generalized linear models (GLMs), quantile regression and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). We analyzed data of 4967 children participating in the school entry health examination in Bavaria, Germany, from 2001 to 2002. TV watching, meal frequency, breastfeeding, smoking in pregnancy, maternal obesity, parental social class and weight gain in the first 2 years of life were considered as risk factors for obesity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>GAMLSS showed a much better fit regarding the estimation of risk factors effects on transformed and untransformed BMI data than common GLMs with respect to the generalized Akaike information criterion. In comparison with GAMLSS, quantile regression allowed for additional interpretation of prespecified distribution quantiles, such as quantiles referring to overweight or obesity. The variables TV watching, maternal BMI and weight gain in the first 2 years were directly, and meal frequency was inversely significantly associated with body composition in any model type examined. In contrast, smoking in pregnancy was not directly, and breastfeeding and parental social class were not inversely significantly associated with body composition in GLM models, but in GAMLSS and partly in quantile regression models. Risk factor specific BMI percentile curves could be estimated from GAMLSS and quantile regression models.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>GAMLSS and quantile regression seem to be more appropriate than common GLMs for risk factor modeling of BMI data.</p

Factors affecting patterns of tick parasitism on forest rodents in tick-borne encephalitis risk areas, Germany

Identifying factors affecting individual vector burdens is essential for understanding infectious disease systems. Drawing upon data of a rodent monitoring programme conducted in nine different forest patches in southern Hesse, Germany, we developed models which predict tick (Ixodes spp. and Dermacentor spp.) burdens on two rodent species Apodemus flavicollis and Myodes glareolus. Models for the two rodent species were broadly similar but differed in some aspects. Patterns of Ixodes spp. burdens were influenced by extrinsic factors such as season, unexplained spatial variation (both species), relative humidity and vegetation cover (A. flavicollis). We found support for the ‘body mass’ (tick burdens increase with body mass/age) and for the ‘dilution’ hypothesis (tick burdens decline with increasing rodent densities) and little support for the ‘sex-bias’ hypothesis (both species). Surprisingly, roe deer densities were not correlated with larvae counts on rodents. Factors influencing the mean burden did not significantly explain the observed dispersion of tick counts. Co-feeding aggregations, which are essential for tick-borne disease transmission, were mainly found in A. flavicollis of high body mass trapped in areas with fast increase in spring temperatures. Locally, Dermacentor spp. appears to be an important parasite on A. flavicollis and M. glareolus. Dermacentor spp. was rather confined to areas with higher average temperatures during the vegetation period. Nymphs of Dermacentor spp. mainly fed on M. glareolus and were seldom found on A. flavicollis. Whereas Ixodes spp. is the dominant tick genus in woodlands of our study area, the distribution and epidemiological role of Dermacentor spp. should be monitored closely

C-reactive protein reference percentiles among pre-adolescent children in Europe based on the IDEFICS study population

OBJECTIVES: C-reactive protein (CRP) is involved in a wide range of diseases. It is a powerful marker for inflammatory processes used for diagnostic and monitoring purposes. We aimed to establish reference values as data on the distribution of serum CRP levels in young European children are scarce. SUBJECTS: Reference values of high-sensitivity CRP concentrations were calculated for 9855 children aged 2.0-10.9 years, stratified by age and sex. The children were recruited during the population-based European IDEFICS study (Identification and prevention of Dietary-and lifestyle-induced health Effects in Children and infantS) with 18 745 participants recruited from 2007 to 2010. RESULTS: In 44.1 % of the children, CRP values were below or equal the detection limit of 0.2 mg/l. Median CRP concentrations showed a slight negative age trend in boys and girls, whereas serum CRP values were slightly higher in girls than in boys across all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our population-based reference values of CRP may guide paediatric practice as elevated values may require further investigation or treatment. Therefore, the presented reference values represent a basis for clinical evaluation and for future research on risk assessment of diseases associated with increased CRP levels among children

Percentiles of fasting serum insulin, glucose, HbA1c and HOMA-IR in pre-pubertal normal weight European children from the IDEFICS cohort

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to present age-and sex-specific reference values of insulin, glucose, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and the homeostasis model assessment to quantify insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) for pre-pubertal children. METHODS: The reference population consists of 7074 normal weight 3- to 10.9-year-old pre-pubertal children from eight European countries who participated in at least one wave of the IDEFICS ('identification and prevention of dietary-and lifestyle-induced health effects in children and infants') surveys (2007-2010) and for whom standardised laboratory measurements were obtained. Percentile curves of insulin (measured by an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay), glucose, HbA1c and HOMA-IR were calculated as a function of age stratified by sex using the general additive model for location scale and shape (GAMLSS) method. RESULTS: Levels of insulin, fasting glucose and HOMA-IR continuously show an increasing trend with age, whereas HbA1c shows an upward trend only beyond the age of 8 years. Insulin and HOMA-IR values are higher in girls of all age groups, whereas glucose values are slightly higher in boys. Median serum levels of insulin range from 17.4 and 13.2 pmol l(-1) in 3-< 3.5-year-old girls and boys, respectively, to 53.5 and 43.0 pmol l(-1) in 10.5-< 11-year-old girls and boys. Median values of glucose are 4.3 and 4.5 mmol l(-1) in the youngest age group and 49.3 and 50.6 mmol l(-1) in the oldest girls and boys. For HOMA-IR, median values range from 0.5 and 0.4 in 3-< 3.5-year-old girls and boys to 1.7 and 1.4 in 10.5-< 11-year-old girls and boys, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides the first standardised reference values for an international European children's population and provides the, up to now, largest data set of healthy pre-pubertal children to model reference percentiles for markers of insulin resistance. Our cohort shows higher values of Hb1Ac as compared with a single Swedish study while our percentiles for the other glucose metabolic markers are in good accordance with previous studies

Reference values of whole-blood fatty acids by age and sex from European children aged 3-8 years

OBJECTIVES: To establish reference values for fatty acids (FA) especially for n-3 and n-6 long-chain polyunsaturated FAs (LC PUFA) in whole-blood samples from apparently healthy 3-8-year-old European children. The whole-blood FA composition was analysed and the age-and sex-specific distribution of FA was determined. DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: Blood samples for FA analysis were taken from 2661 children of the IDEFICS (identification and prevention of dietary-and lifestyle-induced health effects in children and infants) study cohort. Children with obesity (n = 454) and other diseases that are known to alter the FA composition (n = 450) were excluded leaving 1653 participants in the reference population. MEASUREMENTS: The FA composition of whole blood was analysed from blood drops by a rapid, validated gas chromatographic method. RESULTS: Pearson correlation coefficients showed an age-dependent increase of C18:2n-6 and a decrease of C18:1n-9 in a subsample of normal weight boys and girls. Other significant correlations with age were weak and only seen either in boys or in girls, whereas most of the FA did not show any age dependence. For age-dependent n-3 and n-6 PUFA as well as for other FA that are correlated with age (16:0, C18:0 and C18:1n-9) percentiles analysed with the general additive model for location scale and shape are presented. A higher median in boys than in girls was observed for C20:3n-6, C20:4n-6 and C22:4n-6. CONCLUSIONS: Given the reported associations between FA status and health-related outcome, the provision of FA reference ranges may be useful for the interpretation of the FA status of children in epidemiological and clinical studies

Reference values of bone stiffness index and C-terminal telopeptide in healthy European children

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Quantitative ultrasound measurements and bone metabolic markers can help to monitor bone health and to detect impaired skeletal development. Population-based reference values for children may serve as a basis for preventive measures to reduce the risk of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures in later life. This is the first paper providing age-, sex-and height-specific reference values for bone stiffness index (SI) and serum carboxy-terminal cross-linking telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX) in healthy, apparently prepubertal children. SUBJECTS/METHODS: In the population-based IDEFICS baseline survey (2007-2008) and follow-up (2009-2010), 18 745 children from eight European countries were newly recruited. A total of 10 791 2-10.9-year-old and 1646 3-8.9-year-old healthy children provided data on SI of the right and left calcaneus and serum CTX, respectively. Furthermore, height and weight were measured. Percentile curves were calculated using the General Additive Model for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to model the distribution of SI and CTX depending on multiple covariates while accounting for dispersion, skewness, and the kurtosis of this distribution. RESULTS: SI was negatively associated with age and height in children aged 2-5 years, whereas a positive association was observed in children aged 6-10 years. The dip in SI occurred at older age for higher SI percentiles and was observed earlier in taller children than in smaller children. The CTX reference curves showed a linear-positive association with age and height. No major sex differences were observed for the SI and CTX reference values. CONCLUSION: These reference data lay the ground to evaluate bone growth and metabolism in prepubertal children in epidemiological and clinical settings. They may also inform clinical practice to monitor skeletal development and to assess adverse drug reactions during medical treatments