Geographic profiling in Nazi Berlin: fact and fiction

Geographic profiling uses the locations of connected crime sites to make inferences about the probable location of the offender’s ‘anchor point’ (usually a home, but sometimes a workplace). We show how the basic ideas of the method were used in a Gestapo investigation that formed the basis of a classic German novel about domestic resistance to the Nazis during the Second World War. We use modern techniques to re-analyse this case, and show that these successfully locate the Berlin home address of Otto and Elise Hampel, who had distributed hundreds of anti-Nazi postcards, after analysing just 34 of the 214 incidents that took place before their arrest. Our study provides the first empirical evidence to support the suggestion that analysis of minor terrorism-related acts such as graffiti and theft could be used to help locate terrorist bases before more serious incidents occur

Spatial targeting of infectious disease control: identifying multiple, unknown sources

non compliant version, depositor contacte

Prebiotic Homochirality as a Critical Phenomenon

The development of prebiotic homochirality on early-Earth or another planetary platform may be viewed as a critical phenomenon. It is shown, in the context of spatio-temporal polymerization reaction networks, that environmental effects -- be them temperature surges or other external disruptions -- may destroy any net chirality previously produced. In order to understand the emergence of prebiotic homochirality it is important to model the coupling of polymerization reaction networks to different planetary environments.Comment: 6 Pages, 1 Figure, In Press: Origins of Life and Evolution of Biosphere

Mechanography assessment of fall risk in older adults: the Vietnam Osteoporosis Study

Background Jumping mechanography is a technology for quantitatively assessing muscular function and balance in older adults. This study sought to define the association between jumping mechanography parameters and fall risk in Vietnamese individuals. Methods The study involved 375 women and 244 men aged 50 years and older, who were recruited from the general population in Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam). The individuals had been followed for 2 years. At baseline, Esslinger Fitness index (EFI), jumping power, force, velocity of lower limbs, and the ability to maintain balance were measured by a Leonardo Mechanograph Ground Reaction Force system (Novotec Medical, Pforxheim, Germany). The incidence of falls during the follow-up period was ascertained from self-report. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyse the association between jumping mechanography parameters and fall risk. Results The average age of participants at baseline was 56.7 years (SD 5.85). During the 2 year follow-up, 92 falls were reported, making the incidence of fall at ~15% [95% confidence interval (CI), 12.1 to 18.2]. The incidence of fall increased with advancing age, and women had a higher incidence than men (17.6% vs. 10.7%; P = 0.024). In univariate analysis, maximal velocity [odds ratio (OR) 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.82], maximal force (OR 0.83; 95% CI, 0.65 to 1.04), and maximal power (OR 0.68; 95% CI, 0.52 to 0.88) were each significantly associated with fall risk. EFI was not significantly associated with fall risk (OR 1.09; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.39). However, in a multiple logistic regression model, greater maximum velocity was associated with lower odds of fall (OR 0.38; 95% CI, 0.16 to 0.92). Conclusions These data suggest that jumping mechanography is a useful tool for assessing fall risk in older adults of Vietnamese background

Formation of Ultracold Molecules by Merging Optical Tweezers

We demonstrate the formation of a single RbCs molecule during the merging of two optical tweezers, one containing a single Rb atom and the other a single Cs atom. Both atoms are initially predominantly in the motional ground states of their respective tweezers. We confirm molecule formation and establish the state of the molecule formed by measuring its binding energy. We find that the probability of molecule formation can be controlled by tuning the confinement of the traps during the merging process, in good agreement with coupled-channel calculations. We show that the conversion efficiency from atoms to molecules using this technique is comparable to magnetoassociation

Isgur-Wise function in a QCD inspired potential model with confinement as parent in the Variationally Improved Perturbation Theory (VIPT)

We have recently reported the calculation of slope and curvature of Isgur-Wise function based on Variationally Improved Perturbation Theory (VIPT) in a QCD inspired potential model. In that work, Coulombic potential was taken as the parent while the linear one as the perturbation.In this work, we choose the linear one as the parent with Coulombic one as the perturbation and see the consequences. Keywords: VIPT,Isgur-Wise function, charge radii and convexity pa- rameter

How does reviewing the evidence change veterinary surgeons' beliefs regarding the treatment of ovine footrot? A quantitative and qualitative study

Footrot is a widespread, infectious cause of lameness in sheep, with major economic and welfare costs. The aims of this research were: (i) to quantify how veterinary surgeons’ beliefs regarding the efficacy of two treatments for footrot changed following a review of the evidence (ii) to obtain a consensus opinion following group discussions (iii) to capture complementary qualitative data to place their beliefs within a broader clinical context. Grounded in a Bayesian statistical framework, probabilistic elicitation (roulette method) was used to quantify the beliefs of eleven veterinary surgeons during two one-day workshops. There was considerable heterogeneity in veterinary surgeons’ beliefs before they listened to a review of the evidence. After hearing the evidence, seven participants quantifiably changed their beliefs. In particular, two participants who initially believed that foot trimming with topical oxytetracycline was the better treatment, changed to entirely favour systemic and topical oxytetracycline instead. The results suggest that a substantial amount of the variation in beliefs related to differences in veterinary surgeons’ knowledge of the evidence. Although considerable differences in opinion still remained after the evidence review, with several participants having non-overlapping 95% credible intervals, both groups did achieve a consensus opinion. Two key findings from the qualitative data were: (i) veterinary surgeons believed that farmers are unlikely to actively seek advice on lameness, suggesting a proactive veterinary approach is required (ii) more attention could be given to improving the way in which veterinary advice is delivered to farmers. In summary this study has: (i) demonstrated a practical method for probabilistically quantifying how veterinary surgeons’ beliefs change (ii) revealed that the evidence that currently exists is capable of changing veterinary opinion (iii) suggested that improved transfer of research knowledge into veterinary practice is needed (iv) identified some potential obstacles to the implementation of veterinary advice by farmers

The High-Superior-Tension Technique: Evolution of Lipoabdominoplasty

Because abdominoplasty is associated with complications such as seroma and necrosis as well as epigastric bulging and a suprapubic scar located too high, the demand for this procedure is not as high as it otherwise might be. However, although these negative effects were common many years ago, their incidence has decreased dramatically with modern abdominoplastic techniques. One approach using a combination of abdominoplasty and liposuction or lipoabdominoplasty has resolved many of the problems faced with earlier techniques, offering aesthetically pleasing results and excellent reliability. The keys to successful lipoabdominoplasty, first developed as the high-superior-tension technique, are extensive liposuction, preservation of lymphatic trunks, preaponeurotic epigastric dissection, major muscle fascia plication, two high-tension paraumbilical sutures, hypogastric tension sutures, and closure of the dead spaces. The most recent updates to this technique are described in this article

Mid-Upper Arm Circumference based Nutrition Programming: evidence for a new approach in regions with high burden of Acute Malnutrition

In therapeutic feeding programs (TFP), mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) shows advantages over weight-for-height Z score (WHZ) and is recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) as an independent criterion for screening children 6-59 months old. Here we report outcomes and treatment response from a TFP using MUAC ≤118 mm or oedema as sole admission criteria for severe acute malnutrition (SAM)