Sub-kilometre scale distribution of snow depth on Arctic sea ice from Soviet drifting stations

The sub-kilometre scale distribution of snow depth on Arctic sea ice impacts atmosphere-ice fluxes of energy and mass, and is of importance for satellite estimates of sea-ice thickness from both radar and lidar altimeters. While information about the mean of this distribution is increasingly available from modelling and remote sensing, the full distribution cannot yet be resolved. We analyse 33 539 snow depth measurements from 499 transects taken at Soviet drifting stations between 1955 and 1991 and derive a simple statistical distribution for snow depth over multi-year ice as a function of only the mean snow depth. We then evaluate this snow depth distribution against snow depth transects that span first-year ice to multiyear ice from the MOSAiC, SHEBA and AMSR-Ice field campaigns. Because the distribution can be generated using only the mean snow depth, it can be used in the downscaling of several existing snow depth products for use in flux modelling and altimetry studies

Multisensory Oddity Detection as Bayesian Inference

A key goal for the perceptual system is to optimally combine information from all the senses that may be available in order to develop the most accurate and unified picture possible of the outside world. The contemporary theoretical framework of ideal observer maximum likelihood integration (MLI) has been highly successful in modelling how the human brain combines information from a variety of different sensory modalities. However, in various recent experiments involving multisensory stimuli of uncertain correspondence, MLI breaks down as a successful model of sensory combination. Within the paradigm of direct stimulus estimation, perceptual models which use Bayesian inference to resolve correspondence have recently been shown to generalize successfully to these cases where MLI fails. This approach has been known variously as model inference, causal inference or structure inference. In this paper, we examine causal uncertainty in another important class of multi-sensory perception paradigm – that of oddity detection and demonstrate how a Bayesian ideal observer also treats oddity detection as a structure inference problem. We validate this approach by showing that it provides an intuitive and quantitative explanation of an important pair of multi-sensory oddity detection experiments – involving cues across and within modalities – for which MLI previously failed dramatically, allowing a novel unifying treatment of within and cross modal multisensory perception. Our successful application of structure inference models to the new ‘oddity detection’ paradigm, and the resultant unified explanation of across and within modality cases provide further evidence to suggest that structure inference may be a commonly evolved principle for combining perceptual information in the brain

Brief communication: Conventional assumptions involving the speed of radar waves in snow introduce systematic underestimates to sea ice thickness and seasonal growth rate estimates

Pan-Arctic sea ice thickness has been monitored over recent decades by satellite radar altimeters such as CryoSat-2, which emits Ku-band radar waves that are assumed in publicly available sea ice thickness products to penetrate overlying snow and scatter from the ice&ndash;snow interface. Here we examine two expressions for the time delay caused by slower radar wave propagation through the snow layer and related assumptions concerning the time evolution of overlying snow density. Two conventional treatments introduce systematic underestimates of up to 15&thinsp;cm into ice thickness estimates and up to 10&thinsp;cm into thermodynamic growth rate estimates over multi-year ice in winter. Correcting these biases would impact a wide variety of model projections, calibrations, validations and reanalyses. </div

Characteristics of outdoor falls among older people: A qualitative study

Background Falls are a major threat to older people’s health and wellbeing. Approximately half of falls occur in outdoor environments but little is known about the circumstances in which they occur. We conducted a qualitative study to explore older people’s experiences of outdoor falls to develop understanding of how they may be prevented. Methods We conducted nine focus groups across the UK (England, Wales, and Scotland). Our sample was from urban and rural settings and different environmental landscapes. Participants were aged 65+ and had at least one outdoor fall in the past year. We analysed the data using framework and content analyses. Results Forty-four adults aged 65 – 92 took part and reported their experience of 88 outdoor falls. Outdoor falls occurred in a variety of contexts, though reports suggested the following scenarios may have been more frequent: when crossing a road, in a familiar area, when bystanders were around, and with an unreported or unknown attribution. Most frequently, falls resulted in either minor or moderate injury, feeling embarrassed at the time of the fall, and anxiety about falling again. Ten falls resulted in fracture, but no strong pattern emerged in regard to the contexts of these falls. Anxiety about falling again appeared more prevalent among those that fell in urban settings and who made more visits into their neighbourhood in a typical week. Conclusions This exploratory study has highlighted several aspects of the outdoor environment that may represent risk factors for outdoor falls and associated fear of falling. Health professionals are recommended to consider outdoor environments as well as the home setting when working to prevent falls and increase mobility among older people

Self versus Environment Motion in Postural Control

To stabilize our position in space we use visual information as well as non-visual physical motion cues. However, visual cues can be ambiguous: visually perceived motion may be caused by self-movement, movement of the environment, or both. The nervous system must combine the ambiguous visual cues with noisy physical motion cues to resolve this ambiguity and control our body posture. Here we have developed a Bayesian model that formalizes how the nervous system could solve this problem. In this model, the nervous system combines the sensory cues to estimate the movement of the body. We analytically demonstrate that, as long as visual stimulation is fast in comparison to the uncertainty in our perception of body movement, the optimal strategy is to weight visually perceived movement velocities proportional to a power law. We find that this model accounts for the nonlinear influence of experimentally induced visual motion on human postural behavior both in our data and in previously published results

Large Scale Structure of the Universe

Galaxies are not uniformly distributed in space. On large scales the Universe displays coherent structure, with galaxies residing in groups and clusters on scales of ~1-3 Mpc/h, which lie at the intersections of long filaments of galaxies that are >10 Mpc/h in length. Vast regions of relatively empty space, known as voids, contain very few galaxies and span the volume in between these structures. This observed large scale structure depends both on cosmological parameters and on the formation and evolution of galaxies. Using the two-point correlation function, one can trace the dependence of large scale structure on galaxy properties such as luminosity, color, stellar mass, and track its evolution with redshift. Comparison of the observed galaxy clustering signatures with dark matter simulations allows one to model and understand the clustering of galaxies and their formation and evolution within their parent dark matter halos. Clustering measurements can determine the parent dark matter halo mass of a given galaxy population, connect observed galaxy populations at different epochs, and constrain cosmological parameters and galaxy evolution models. This chapter describes the methods used to measure the two-point correlation function in both redshift and real space, presents the current results of how the clustering amplitude depends on various galaxy properties, and discusses quantitative measurements of the structures of voids and filaments. The interpretation of these results with current theoretical models is also presented.Comment: Invited contribution to be published in Vol. 8 of book "Planets, Stars, and Stellar Systems", Springer, series editor T. D. Oswalt, volume editor W. C. Keel, v2 includes additional references, updated to match published versio

Cue Integration in Categorical Tasks: Insights from Audio-Visual Speech Perception

Previous cue integration studies have examined continuous perceptual dimensions (e.g., size) and have shown that human cue integration is well described by a normative model in which cues are weighted in proportion to their sensory reliability, as estimated from single-cue performance. However, this normative model may not be applicable to categorical perceptual dimensions (e.g., phonemes). In tasks defined over categorical perceptual dimensions, optimal cue weights should depend not only on the sensory variance affecting the perception of each cue but also on the environmental variance inherent in each task-relevant category. Here, we present a computational and experimental investigation of cue integration in a categorical audio-visual (articulatory) speech perception task. Our results show that human performance during audio-visual phonemic labeling is qualitatively consistent with the behavior of a Bayes-optimal observer. Specifically, we show that the participants in our task are sensitive, on a trial-by-trial basis, to the sensory uncertainty associated with the auditory and visual cues, during phonemic categorization. In addition, we show that while sensory uncertainty is a significant factor in determining cue weights, it is not the only one and participants' performance is consistent with an optimal model in which environmental, within category variability also plays a role in determining cue weights. Furthermore, we show that in our task, the sensory variability affecting the visual modality during cue-combination is not well estimated from single-cue performance, but can be estimated from multi-cue performance. The findings and computational principles described here represent a principled first step towards characterizing the mechanisms underlying human cue integration in categorical tasks

Motion direction, speed and orientation in binocular matching

The spatial differences between the images seen by the two eyes, called binocular disparities, can be used to recover the volumetric (three-dimensional) aspects of a scene. The computation of disparity depends upon the correct identi®cation of corresponding features in the two images. Understanding what image features are used by the brain to solve this matching problem is one of the main issues in stereoscopic vision. Many cortical neurons in visual areas V1 (ref. 2), MT (refs 3, 4) and MST (refs 5, 6) that are tuned to binocular disparity are also tuned to orientation, motion direction and speed. Although psychophysical work has shown that motion direction can facilitate binocular matching, the psychophysical literature on the role of orientation is mixed^8,9 , and it has been argued that speed differences are ineffective in aiding correspondence^7. Here we use a different psychophysical paradigm to show that the visual system uses similarities in orientation, motion direction and speed to achieve binocular correspondence. These results indicate that cells that multiplex orientation, motion direction, speed and binocular disparity may help to solve the binocular matching problem

Continuous Evolution of Statistical Estimators for Optimal Decision-Making

In many everyday situations, humans must make precise decisions in the presence of uncertain sensory information. For example, when asked to combine information from multiple sources we often assign greater weight to the more reliable information. It has been proposed that statistical-optimality often observed in human perception and decision-making requires that humans have access to the uncertainty of both their senses and their decisions. However, the mechanisms underlying the processes of uncertainty estimation remain largely unexplored. In this paper we introduce a novel visual tracking experiment that requires subjects to continuously report their evolving perception of the mean and uncertainty of noisy visual cues over time. We show that subjects accumulate sensory information over the course of a trial to form a continuous estimate of the mean, hindered only by natural kinematic constraints (sensorimotor latency etc.). Furthermore, subjects have access to a measure of their continuous objective uncertainty, rapidly acquired from sensory information available within a trial, but limited by natural kinematic constraints and a conservative margin for error. Our results provide the first direct evidence of the continuous mean and uncertainty estimation mechanisms in humans that may underlie optimal decision making

RNA-seq Analysis Reveals That an ECF σ Factor, AcsS, Regulates Achromobactin Biosynthesis in Pseudomonas syringae pv. syringae B728a

Iron is an essential micronutrient for Pseudomonas syringae pv. syringae strain B728a and many other microorganisms; therefore, B728a has evolved methods of iron acquirement including the use of iron-chelating siderophores. In this study an extracytoplasmic function (ECF) sigma factor, AcsS, encoded within the achromobactin gene cluster is shown to be a major regulator of genes involved in the biosynthesis and secretion of this siderophore. However, production of achromobactin was not completely abrogated in the deletion mutant, implying that other regulators may be involved such as PvdS, the sigma factor that regulates pyoverdine biosynthesis. RNA-seq analysis identified 287 genes that are differentially expressed between the AcsS deletion mutant and the wild type strain. These genes are involved in iron response, secretion, extracellular polysaccharide production, and cell motility. Thus, the transcriptome analysis supports a role for AcsS in the regulation of achromobactin production and the potential activity of both AcsS and achromobactin in the plant-associated lifestyle of strain B728a