The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand

This paper estimates the effects on energy and oil demand of changes in income and oil prices, for 96 of the world's largest countries, in per-capita terms. We examine three important issues: the asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in oil prices; the asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in income; and the different speeds of demand adjustment to changes in price and in income. Its main conclusions are the following: (1) OECD demand responds much more to increases in oil prices than to decreases; ignoring this asymmetric price response will bias downward the estimated income elasticity; (2) demand's response to income decreases in many non-OECD countries is not necessarily symmetric to its response to income increases; ignoring this asymmetric income response will bias the estimated income elasticity; (3) the speed of demand adjustment is faster to changes in income than to changes in price; ignoring this difference will bias upward the estimated response to income changes. Using correctly specified equations for energy and oil demand, the long-run elasticity for increases in income is about 0.55 for OECD energy and oil, and 1.0 or higher for Non-OECD Oil Exporters, Income Growers and perhaps all Non-OECD countries. These income elasticity estimates are significantly higher than current estimates used by the US Department of Energy. Our estimates for the OECD countries are also higher than those estimated recently by Schmalensee-Stoker-Judson (1998) and Holtz-Eakin and Selden (1995), who ignore the asymmetric effects of prices on demand. Higher income elasticities, of course, will increase projections of energy and oil demand, and of carbon dioxide emissions.ENERGY DEMAND; OIL DEMAND; ASYMMETRY; IRREVERSIBILITY; INCOME ELASTICITY

How Likely is the Consensus Projection of Oil Production Doubling in the Persian Gulf?

We examine a consensus in most recent long-term projections of the world oil market that OPEC oil capacity and production will increase rapidly over the next two decades to unprecedented levels, more than doubling in the Persian Gulf by 2020. Such projections are not based on behavioral analysis of Gulf countries' decisions; they are merely the calculated residual demand for OPEC oil, the difference between projected world oil demand and non-OPEC supply. We focus especially on the detailed projections of the International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO-2001) by the Energy Information Administration within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Their projections exhibit only minimal price-responsiveness, which leads to conclusion that the underlying model is internally inconsistent. If it accurately represents the price-responsiveness of world oil demand and non-OPEC supply, then both the Reference Case and the High Price Case project future oil prices that are far too low - because these cases rely on supply behavior by Gulf producers that is not in their own self-interest. The IEO-2001 projections of world oil prices could be reasonable, but only if world oil demand and/or non-OPEC supply are much more price-responsive than are represented in their numerical projections. Then, using an updated version of the model from Gately (1995), we demonstrate that the effect of greater priceresponsiveness for world oil demand and non-OPEC supply is to make faster output growth - not higher prices - the reliable path to higher OPEC revenue. We conclude with comments about the plausibility of consensus projections. Oil price in the range $20 to$25 (1999 $/barrel) is plausible, but it requires substantial growth in non-OPEC supply and much greater priceresponsiveness than is assumed in IEO-2001. Projections that Persian Gulf capacity and output will double by 2020, however, seem very implausible. It requires not only that Gulf producers experience high price-responsiveness to any slowdown in their output growth, but also that aggressive output growth must make them significantly better off than more modest expansion efforts. However, it was shown in Gately (1995) that discounted export revenue for the Gulf countries is relatively insensitive over a fairly wide range of output-growth strategies: modest output growth will do just about as well as aggressive growth.OPEC OIL OUTPUT; OPEC CAPACITY; OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS

Virtual worlds as a tool to facilitate weight management for young people.

Childhood obesity is a serious problem in the UK, with around 20% of children aged 10-11 being overweight or obese. Lifestyle interventions can be effective, but there is limited evidence of their effectiveness in delivering sustained weight loss. The present research explored potential of web-based, 3-dimensional virtual worlds (VWs) for facilitation of weight-management, well-being and patient and public involvement (PPI) for young people. Attendees of a weight management camp took part in induction sessions for use of the VW of Second Life. All participants successfully learned how to interact with one another and navigate the virtual environment. Participant appraisals of Second Life were varied. Some found it complicated and difficult to use, and some found it fun and the majority stated that they would choose to use VWs again. There is considerable potential for use of VWs to promote weight management, and Second Life or a similar VW could be used to deliver this. Potential barriers include members of the target sample having limited access to computers with necessary system requirements for running VWs, and that some may find VW-based educational experiences unappealing or challenging to navigate. For some however, VWs may provide a useful mode for provision of education, PPI and support relating to weight management

The use of commitment techniques to support weight loss maintenance in obese adolescents

Objectives: Obesity is a rising problem in adolescents related to unhealthy behaviours. Commitment devises are one type of behavioural intervention that may help people change their behaviours. The current pilot trial tests whether commitment devices delivered via text message help adolescents maintain their recent weight loss. Methods: During a 12-week pilot trial adolescents who attended a weight loss camp were randomly assigned to either received text messages that contained only information, i.e., advice, about weight loss management (n=13) or asked for them to commit to following the same advise (n=14). Results: The BMI of the adolescents in the commitment group did not change. In contrast, the BMI of adolescents in the information group increased. A linear regression revealed that group was a significant predictor of BMI change. A logistic regression revealed that adolescents in the information group were nearly eight times more likely to regain weight than those in the commitment group. Conclusions: This is the first study with adolescents to show weight maintenance using a commitment device. The results suggest that commitment devices can help adolescents maintain their recent weight loss

Measuring perceived exercise capability and investigating its relationship with childhood obesity: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: According to the COM-B ('Capability', 'Opportunity', 'Motivation' and 'Behaviour') model of behaviour, three factors are essential for behaviour to occur: capability, opportunity and motivation. Obese children are less likely to feel capable of exercising. The implementation of a new methodological approach to investigate the relationship between perceived exercise capability (PEC) and childhood obesity was conducted, which involved creating a new instrument, and demonstrating how it can be used to measure obesity intervention outcomes. SUBJECTS/METHODS: A questionnaire aiming to measure perceived exercise capability, opportunity and motivation was systematically constructed using the COM-B model and administered to 71 obese children (aged 9-17 years (12.24±0.2.01), body mass index (BMI) standard deviation scores (SDS) 2.80±0.660) at a weight-management camp in northern England. Scale validity and reliability was assessed. Relationships between PEC, as measured by the questionnaire, and BMI SDS were investigated for the children at the weight-management camp, and for 45 Spanish schoolchildren (aged 9-13 years, (10.52±1.23), BMI SDS 0.80±0.99). A pilot study, demonstrating how the questionnaire can be used to measure the effectiveness of an intervention aiming to bring about improved PEC for weight-management camp attendees, was conducted. No participants withdrew from these studies. RESULTS: The questionnaire domain (exercise capability, opportunity and motivation) composite scales were found to have adequate internal consistency (a=0.712-0.796) and construct validity (χ(2)/degrees of freedom=1.55, root mean square error of approximation=0.072, comparative fit index=0.92). Linear regression revealed that low PEC was associated with higher baseline BMI SDS for both UK (b=-0.289, P=0.010) and Spanish (b=-0.446, P=0.047) participants. Pilot study findings provide preliminary evidence for PEC improvements through intervention being achievable, and measurable using the questionnaire. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence is presented for reliability and validity of the questionnaire, and for feasibility of its use in the context of a childhood obesity intervention. Future research could investigate the link between PEC and childhood obesity further

Slay: An Exploration and Review of Queer Horror

Many tropes of horror films are widely recognized even by those who aren't fans of the genre. Despite this, it seems the queer themes and tropes often seen in such films are not acknowledged nearly as much. Horror media can tell us a great deal about the culture of the time as well as provide a unique space for the creation of 'outsider art'. This paper argues, through the use of queer and feminist theory, as well as through a selection of film reviews, that queerness and horror are inherently intertwined. Whether by villainizing queerness, or representing the queer experience, queerness will always find a way into horror media.Purchase College SUNYMedia StudiesBachelor of ArtsMcGlotten, Shak

Testing the efficacy of voluntary urban greenhouse gas emissions inventories

Drawing from an original dataset of urban metropolitan carbon footprints, we explore the correlations between national level climate change commitments and subnational level inventories. We ask: Does voluntary reporting allow a city to perform better than national average? Does ambitiousness in commitment have an impact on performance in footprint reduction? Does having long-term commitments affect performance in footprint reduction? Do binding national level commitments (such as those under the Kyoto Protocol) affect performance at the city level in terms of footprint reduction? To provide answers, we synthesize data from the largest repository of voluntary sub-national commitments and actions towards footprint reduction and greenhouse gas inventories from around the world, the Carbonn platform. More than 500 cities report at least one action, commitment or inventory to this database. We find, using a subset of this database, perhaps counter intuitively that cities with more ambitious commitments do not necessarily have steeper reductions in emissions. Our data also suggest that having long-term self-reported goals does not make the cities perform better in terms of footprint reduction. This appears to be true for both government and community commitments reported. Lastly, and positively, our data did reveal a statistically significant effect for cities belonging to countries that had committed to the Kyoto Protocol, suggesting the necessity of binding national (and supranational) climate targets

Reducing the duration of untreated psychosis and its impact in the U.S.: the STEP-ED study

Background: Early intervention services for psychotic disorders optimally interlock strategies to deliver: (i) Early Detection (ED) to shorten the time between onset of psychotic symptoms and effective treatment (i.e. Duration of Untreated Psychosis, DUP); and (ii) comprehensive intervention during the subsequent 2 to 5 years. In the latter category, are teams (‘First-episode Services’ or FES) that integrate several empirically supported treatments and adapt their delivery to younger patients and caregivers. There is an urgent need to hasten access to established FES in the U.S. Despite improved outcomes for those in treatment, these FES routinely engage patients a year or more after psychosis onset. The Scandinavian TIPS study was able to effectively reduce DUP in a defined geographic catchment. The guiding questions for this study are: can a U.S. adaptation of the TIPS approach to ED substantially reduce DUP and improve outcomes beyond existing FES? Methods/Design The primary aim is to determine whether ED can reduce DUP in the US, as compared to usual detection. ED will be implemented by one FES (STEP) based in southern Connecticut, and usual detection efforts will continue at a comparable FES (PREPR) serving the greater Boston metropolitan area. The secondary aim is to determine whether DUP reduction can improve presentation, engagement and early outcomes in FES care. A quasi-experimental design will compare the impact of ED on DUP at STEP compared to PREPR over 3 successive campaign years. The campaign will deploy 3 components that seek to transform pathways to care in 8 towns surrounding STEP. Social marketing approaches will inform a public education campaign to enable rapid and effective help-seeking behavior. Professional outreach and detailing to a wide variety of care providers, including those in the healthcare, educational and judicial sectors, will facilitate rapid redirection of appropriate patients to STEP. Finally, performance improvement measures within STEP will hasten engagement upon referral. Discussion STEP-ED will test an ED campaign adapted to heterogeneous U.S. pathways to care while also improving our understanding of these pathways and their impact on early outcomes. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02069925. Registered 20 February 2014

Review of Perspectives on Self and Comunity in George Eliot: Dorothea\u27s Window

This is a modest book, edited by three people who are so modest that they reveal nothing at all about their identities. It is possible to discover from a footnote on p.159 that it is a product of a conference on George Eliot although further details of that event remain undisclosed. Two of its contributors, however, are well known in George Eliot circles: Barbara Hardy and Felicia Bonaparte. Their essays are certainly worth reading while all the other contributions have something new to say about Eliot\u27s work even if they are by today\u27s standards under-theorized. One looks in vain in the index for any reference to Bakhtin, Barthes, or Hillis Miller, Eagleton, lameson or the French feminists (to cite but a few of the names one would normally expect to find). The book could almost have been written in the 1960s (it is difficult to avoid the suspicion that some of the essays were). But it is not without its merits. The essays by Barbara Hardy and Felicia Bonaparte which open and close the book are characteristically impressive performances. Hardy explores the oft-noted similes and metaphors associated with windows in the novel, paying careful attention to detail and coming down strongly on lesser critics who make the mistake of locating Dorothea\u27s vision of the \u27largeness of the world\u27 in the \u27pearly light\u27 of dawn in chapter 80 in the boudoir rather than the marital bedroom. Bonaparte maps the rivers of passion and time in The Mill on the Floss, charting the multiple worlds created by the complex musical and mythological allusions in the novel and teasing out the antagonism of valid claims which comprise the tragedy of this novel