Contested modelling

We suggest that the role and function of expert computational modelling in real-world decision-making needs scrutiny and practices need to change. We discuss some empirical and theory-based improvements to the coupling of the modelling process and the real world, including social and behavioural processes, which we have expressed as a set of questions that we believe need to be answered by all projects engaged in such modelling.  These are based on a systems analysis of four research initiatives, covering different scales and timeframes, and addressing the complexity of intervention in a sustainability context. Our proposed improvements require new approaches for analysing the relationship between a project’s models and its publics.  They reflect what we believe is a necessary and beneficial dialogue between the realms of expert scientific modelling and systems thinking.  This paper is an attempt to start that process, itself reflecting a robust dialogue between two practitioners sat within differing traditions, puzzling how to integrate perspectives and achieve wider participation in researching this problem space.&nbsp

Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile

Refined Simulations of the Reaction Front for Diffusion-Limited Two-Species Annihilation in One Dimension

Extensive simulations are performed of the diffusion-limited reaction A$+$B$\to 0$ in one dimension, with initially separated reagents. The reaction rate profile, and the probability distributions of the separation and midpoint of the nearest-neighbour pair of A and B particles, are all shown to exhibit dynamic scaling, independently of the presence of fluctuations in the initial state and of an exclusion principle in the model. The data is consistent with all lengthscales behaving as $t^{1/4}$ as $t\to\infty$. Evidence of multiscaling, found by other authors, is discussed in the light of these findings.Comment: Resubmitted as TeX rather than Postscript file. RevTeX version 3.0, 10 pages with 16 Encapsulated Postscript figures (need epsf). University of Geneva preprint UGVA/DPT 1994/10-85

A Martian Quarantine Risk Model

Structured model using loss functions to assess risk of using given decontamination procedure on all Martian unmanned landing craf

Bulgeless Giant Galaxies Challenge our Picture of Galaxy Formation by Hierarchical Clustering

We dissect giant Sc-Scd galaxies with Hubble Space Telescope photometry and Hobby-Eberly Telescope spectroscopy. We use HET's High Resolution Spectrograph (resolution = 15,000) to measure stellar velocity dispersions in the nuclear star clusters and pseudobulges of the pure-disk galaxies M33, M101, NGC 3338, NGC 3810, NGC 6503, and NGC 6946. We conclude: (1) Upper limits on the masses of any supermassive black holes are MBH <= (2.6+-0.5) * 10**6 M_Sun in M101 and MBH <= (2.0+-0.6) * 10**6 M_Sun in NGC 6503. (2) HST photometry shows that the above galaxies contain tiny pseudobulges that make up <~ 3 % of the stellar mass but no classical bulges. We inventory a sphere of radius 8 Mpc centered on our Galaxy to see whether giant, pure-disk galaxies are common or rare. In this volume, 11 of 19 galaxies with rotation velocity > 150 km/s show no evidence for a classical bulge. Four may contain small classical bulges that contribute 5-12% of the galaxy light. Only 4 of the 19 giant galaxies are ellipticals or have classical bulges that contribute 1/3 of the galaxy light. So pure-disk galaxies are far from rare. It is hard to understand how they could form as the quiescent tail of a distribution of merger histories. Recognition of pseudobulges makes the biggest problem with cold dark matter galaxy formation more acute: How can hierarchical clustering make so many giant, pure-disk galaxies with no evidence for merger-built bulges? This problem depends strongly on environment: the Virgo cluster is not a puzzle, because >2/3 of its stellar mass is in merger remnants.Comment: 28 pages, 16 Postscript figures, 2 tables; requires emulateapj.sty and apjfonts.sty; accepted for publication in ApJ; for a version with full resolution figures, see http://chandra.as.utexas.edu/~kormendy/kdbc.pd

Critical Temperature of a Trapped Bose Gas: Mean-Field Theory and Fluctuations

We investigate the possibilities of distinguishing the mean-field and fluctuation effects on the critical temperature of a trapped Bose gas with repulsive interatomic interactions. Since in a direct measurement of the critical temperature as a function of the number of trapped atoms these effects are small compared to the ideal gas results, we propose to observe Bose-Einstein condensation by adiabatically ramping down the trapping frequency. Moreover, analyzing this adiabatic cooling scheme, we show that fluctuation effects can lead to the formation of a Bose condensate at frequencies which are much larger than those predicted by the mean-field theory.Comment: 4 pages of ReVTeX and 3 figures. Submitted to Physical Review

Measuring Electric Fields From Surface Contaminants with Neutral Atoms

In this paper we demonstrate a technique of utilizing magnetically trapped neutral Rb-87 atoms to measure the magnitude and direction of stray electric fields emanating from surface contaminants. We apply an alternating external electric field that adds to (or subtracts from) the stray field in such a way as to resonantly drive the trapped atoms into a mechanical dipole oscillation. The growth rate of the oscillation's amplitude provides information about the magnitude and sign of the stray field gradient. Using this measurement technique, we are able to reconstruct the vector electric field produced by surface contaminants. In addition, we can accurately measure the electric fields generated from adsorbed atoms purposely placed onto the surface and account for their systematic effects, which can plague a precision surface-force measurement. We show that baking the substrate can reduce the electric fields emanating from adsorbate, and that the mechanism for reduction is likely surface diffusion, not desorption.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, published in Physical Review