A role for the equatorial undercurrent in the ocean dynamical thermostat

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 31 (2018): 6245-6261, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0513.1.Reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST) based on instrumental observations suggest that the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient has increased over the twentieth century. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al., observations of a concurrent weakening of the zonal atmospheric (Walker) circulation are not. Here we show, using heat and momentum budget calculations on an ocean reanalysis dataset, that a seasonal weakening of the zonal atmospheric circulation is in fact consistent with cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and thus an increase in the zonal SST gradient. This cooling is driven by a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in response to decreased upper-ocean westward momentum associated with weakening equatorial zonal wind stress. This process can help to reconcile the seemingly contradictory twentieth-century trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean. Moreover, it is shown that coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) do not correctly simulate this process; we identify a systematic bias in the relationship between changes in equatorial surface zonal wind stress in the EEP and EUC strength that may help to explain why observations and CGCMs have opposing trends in the zonal SST gradient over the twentieth century.2019-01-1

Ocean-atmosphere trajectories of extended drought in southwestern North America

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 124(16), (2019): 8953-8971, doi: 10.1029/2019JD030424.Multiyear droughts are a common occurrence in southwestern North America (SWNA), but it is unclear what causes these persistent dry periods. The ocean‐atmosphere conditions coinciding with droughts have traditionally been studied using correlation and composite methods, which suggest that cool conditions in the tropical Pacific are associated with SWNA droughts and warm conditions are associated with wet periods in SWNA. Nevertheless, the extent to which multiyear droughts are truly consistent with this paradigm remains unknown. This is, in part, because the temporal trajectory of ocean‐atmosphere conditions during these dry periods have not been sufficiently characterized. Here we examine the continuum of ocean‐atmosphere trajectories before, during, and after multiyear droughts in SWNA using observation‐based data and an ensemble of climate model simulations from the Community Earth System Model. An examination of sea surface temperature patterns at the beginning, middle, and end of SWNA droughts shows that an El Niño event tends to precede SWNA droughts, a cool tropical Pacific occurs during droughts, and central Pacific El Niño events end droughts. However, moderate El Niño events can occur in the middle of persistent droughts, so a warm tropical Pacific does not always end these dry periods. These findings are important for drought predictability and emphasize the need to improve simulations of the magnitude, life cycle, and frequency of occurrence of El Niño events.L. Parsons thanks the Washington Research Foundation for funding support and thanks R. Jnglin Wills and D. Battisti for suggestions related to tropical Pacific‐SWNA comparisons. We thank B. Otto‐Bliesner and acknowledge the CESM1(CAM5) Last Millennium Ensemble Community Project and supercomputing resources provided by NSF/CISL/Yellowstone. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 2c data set is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. GPCC Precipitation data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/).2020-02-0

Paleoclimate Model-Data Comparisons of Hydroclimate over North America with a Focus on Megadroughts

For the first time in the history of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Paleoclimate and Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects Phases 3 and 5 produced an ensemble of forced transient simulations of the last millennium. This wealth of model output, when combined with a growing collection of high spatial and temporal resolution pa- leoclimate estimates of past climate variability, represents an important and unprecedented source of information on climate variability over decades to centuries. This dissertation thus combines paleoclimate evidence with climate modeling to define a physical and statistical paradigm through which to analyze these combined sources of information and subsequently to characterize the features of the North American climate system that cannot be sufficiently understood using instrumental data alone. This includes features that have long timescales of variability or that are rare, and by consequence have few degrees of freedom over the short instrumental interval (1850 C.E. to Present), as well as interannual dynamical relationships that, while potentially well characterized by observations, are non-stationary. An integrative approach to analyzing these features or relationships serves two fundamental purposes: 1) It provides a more comprehensive characterization of past climate variability, albeit with the caveat of model bias, to clarify understanding of the dynamics that produce these features or relationships in the real world; and 2) it assesses whether coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are able to simulate these features or relationships, which is necessary to determine that state-of-the-art CGCMs can accurately constrain the risk of future climate change. The focus herein will be on multidecadal hydroclimate change, or megadroughts, in the paleoclimate record of the American Southwest to better inform our understanding of the risk of future hydroclimate change over the region. Two fundamental understandings are derived from this work. Firstly, CGCMs are successful at simulating discrete periods of mul- tidecadal hydroclimate change that are characteristic in length, magnitude, and frequency of occurrence of megadroughts in the paleoclimate record. The simulated megadroughts are not tied in any coherent way to exogenous forcing, however, suggesting that CGCMs simulate large-magnitude internal variability on multidecadal timescales. Secondly, the dynamical characteristics of CGCMs are important in determining the atmosphere-ocean variability that drives multidecadal hydroclimate change. The dynamical characteristics of relevance include teleconnection realism and stationarity, the magnitude of ocean variability, and the relative magnitudes of different modes of atmosphere-ocean and purely atmospheric vari- ability. Additionally, a new understanding of real-world megadrought dynamics is derived herein, with the characteristics of some CGGMs providing a better representation of these dynamics

Model-dependent spatial skill in pseudoproxy experiments testing climate field reconstruction methods for the Common Era

The spatial skill of four climate field reconstruction (CFR) methods is investigated using pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) based on five last millennium and historical simulations from the Coupled and Paleo Model Intercomparison Projects Phases 5 and 3 (CMIP5/PMIP3) data archives. These simulations are used for the first time in a PPE context, the frameworks of which are constructed to test a recently assembled multiproxy network and multiple CFR techniques. The experiments confirm earlier findings demonstrating consistent methodological performance across the employed methods and spatially dependent reconstruction errors in all of the derived CFRs. Spectral biases in the reconstructed fields demonstrate that CFR methods can alone alter the ratio of spectral power at all locations in the field, independent of whether there are any spectral biases inherent in the underlying pseudoproxy series. The patterns of spectral biases are model dependent and indicate the potential for regions in the derived CFRs to be biased by changes in either low or high-frequency spectral power. CFR methods are also shown to alter the pattern of mean differences in the tropical Pacific during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, with some model experiments indicating that CFR methodologies enhance the statistical likelihood of achieving larger mean differences between independent 300-year periods in the region. All of the characteristics of CFR performance are model dependent, indicating that CFR methods must be evaluated across multiple models and that conclusions from PPEs should be carefully connected to the spatial statistics of real-world climatic fields

Global Warming and 21st Century Drying

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twentyfirst century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman- Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of or = -1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system

Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5 PMIP3 Model Simulations

The temporal stationarity of the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and North America (NA) is analyzed in atmosphere-only, and coupled last-millennium, historical, and control runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data archive. The teleconnection, defined as the correlation between December-January-February (DJF) tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and DJF 200 mb geopotential height, is found to be nonstationary on multidecadal timescales. There are significant changes in the spatial features of the teleconnection over NA in continuous 56-year segments of the last millennium and control simulations. Analysis of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs indicates that atmospheric noise cannot account for the temporal variability of the teleconnection, which instead is likely explained by the strength of, and multidecadal changes in, tropical Pacific Ocean variability. These results have implications for teleconnection-based analyses of model fidelity in simulating precipitation, as well as any reconstruction and forecasting efforts that assume stationarity of the observed teleconnection

The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision-making

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Mankin, J. S., Lehner, F., Coats, S., & McKinnon, K. A. The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision-making. Earth's Future, 8(10), (2020): e2012EF001610, doi:10.1029/2020EF001610.The origins of uncertainty in climate projections have major consequences for the scientific and policy decisions made in response to climate change. Internal climate variability, for example, is an inherent uncertainty in the climate system that is undersampled by the multimodel ensembles used in most climate impacts research. Because of this, decision makers are left with the question of whether the range of climate projections across models is due to structural model choices, thus requiring more scientific investment to constrain, or instead is a set of equally plausible outcomes consistent with the same warming world. Similarly, many questions faced by scientists require a clear separation of model uncertainty and that arising from internal variability. With this as motivation and the renewed attention to large ensembles given planning for Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), we illustrate the scientific and policy value of the attribution and quantification of uncertainty from initial condition large ensembles, particularly when analyzed in conjunction with multimodel ensembles. We focus on how large ensembles can support regional‐scale robust adaptation decision‐making in ways multimodel ensembles alone cannot. We also acknowledge several recently identified problems associated with large ensembles, namely, that they are (1) resource intensive, (2) redundant, and (3) biased. Despite these challenges, we show, using examples from hydroclimate, how large ensembles provide unique information for the scientific and policy communities and can be analyzed appropriately for regional‐scale climate impacts research to help inform risk management in a warming world.F. L. has been supported by the Swiss NSF (grant no. PZ00P2_174128), the NSF Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences (grant no. AGS‐0856145, Amendment 87), and the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S.Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via NSF IA 1844590. This is SOEST publication no. 11115

North American Pancontinental Droughts in Model Simulations of the Last Millennium

Pancontinental droughts in North America, or droughts that simultaneously affect a large percentage of the geographically and climatically distinct regions of the continent, present significant on-the-ground management challenges and, as such, are an important target for scientific research. The methodology of paleoclimate-model data comparisons is used herein to provide a more comprehensive understanding of pancontinental drought dynamics. Models are found to simulate pancontinental drought with the frequency and spatial patterns exhibited by the paleoclimate record. They do not, however, agree on the modes of atmosphere–ocean variability that produce pancontinental droughts because simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) dynamics, and their teleconnections to North America, are different between models and observations. Despite these dynamical differences, models are able to reproduce large-magnitude centennial-scale variability in the frequency of pancontinental drought occurrence—an important feature of the paleoclimate record. These changes do not appear to be tied to exogenous forcing, suggesting that simulated internal hydroclimate variability on these time scales is large in magnitude. Results clarify our understanding of the dynamics that produce real-world pancontinental droughts while assessing the ability of models to accurately characterize future drought risks

Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced?

Multidecadal drought periods in the North American Southwest (25°–42.5°N, 125°–105°W), so-called megadroughts, are a prominent feature of the paleoclimate record over the last millennium (LM). Six forced transient simulations of the LM along with corresponding historical (1850–2005) and 500-yr preindustrial control runs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are analyzed to determine if atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to simulate droughts that are similar in persistence and severity to the megadroughts in the proxy-derived North American Drought Atlas. Megadroughts are found in each of the AOGCM simulations of the LM, although there are intermodel differences in the number, persistence, and severity of these features. Despite these differences, a common feature of the simulated megadroughts is that they are not forced by changes in the exogenous forcing conditions. Furthermore, only the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), version 4, simulation contains megadroughts that are consistently forced by cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. These La Niña–like mean states are not accompanied by changes to the interannual variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system and result from internal multidecadal variability of the tropical Pacific mean state, of which the CCSM has the largest magnitude of the analyzed simulations. Critically, the CCSM is also found to have a realistic teleconnection between the tropical Pacific and North America that is stationary on multidecadal time scales. Generally, models with some combination of a realistic and stationary teleconnection and large multidecadal variability in the tropical Pacific are found to have the highest incidence of megadroughts driven by the tropical Pacific boundary conditions

The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

The five most severe and persistent droughts in the American West (AW) during the Common Era occurred during a 450 year period known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA—850–1299 C.E.). Herein we use timeseries modeling to estimate the probability of such a period of hydroclimate change occurring. Clustering of severe and persistent drought during an MCA-length period occurs in approximately 10% of surrogate timeseries that were constructed to have the same characteristics as a tree-ring derived estimate of AW hydroclimate variability between 850 and 2005 C.E. Periods of hydroclimate change like the MCA are thus expected to occur in the AW, although not frequently, with a recurrence interval of approximately 11 000 years. Importantly, a shift in mean hydroclimate conditions during the MCA is found to be necessary for drought to reach the severity and persistence of the actual MCA megadroughts. This result has consequences for our understanding of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics underlying the MCA and a persistently warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is suggested to have played an important role in causing megadrought clustering during this period