5,618 research outputs found
Coupling methods for multistage sampling
Multistage sampling is commonly used for household surveys when there exists
no sampling frame, or when the population is scattered over a wide area.
Multistage sampling usually introduces a complex dependence in the selection of
the final units, which makes asymptotic results quite difficult to prove. In
this work, we consider multistage sampling with simple random without
replacement sampling at the first stage, and with an arbitrary sampling design
for further stages. We consider coupling methods to link this sampling design
to sampling designs where the primary sampling units are selected
independently. We first generalize a method introduced by [Magyar Tud. Akad.
Mat. Kutat\'{o} Int. K\"{o}zl. 5 (1960) 361-374] to get a coupling with
multistage sampling and Bernoulli sampling at the first stage, which leads to a
central limit theorem for the Horvitz--Thompson estimator. We then introduce a
new coupling method with multistage sampling and simple random with replacement
sampling at the first stage. When the first-stage sampling fraction tends to
zero, this method is used to prove consistency of a with-replacement bootstrap
for simple random without replacement sampling at the first stage, and
consistency of bootstrap variance estimators for smooth functions of totals.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1348 in the Annals of
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Leading Indicators of Inflation for Brazil
The goal of this project is to construct leading indicators that anticipate inflation cycle turning points on a real time monitoring basis. As a first step, turning points of the IPCA inflation are determined using a periodic stochastic Markov switching model. These turning points are the event timing that the leading indicators should anticipate. A dynamic factor model is then used to extract common cyclical movements in a set of variables that display predictive content for inflation. The leading indicators are designed to serve as practical tools to assist real-time monitoring of monetary policy on a month-to-month basis. Thus, the indicators are built and ranked according to their out-of-sample forecasting performance. The leading indicators are found to be an informative tool for signaling future phases of the inflation cycle out-of-sample, even in real time when only preliminary and unrevised data are available.
When Victims Seek Closure: Forgiveness, Vengeance and the Role of Government
This article discusses the role of victims and their families in the sentencing of criminal defendants, including the emotional and ethical components of victims\u27 desires to achieve justice and closure
The initial fate of an anisotropic JBD universe
The dynamical effects on the scale factors due to the scalar -field at
the early stages of a supposedly anisotropic Universe expansion in the
scalar-tensor cosmology of Jordan-Brans and Dicke is studied. This universe
shows an {\sl isotropic} evolution and, depending on the value of the theorie's
coupling parameter , it can begin from a singularity if and
after expanding shrink to another one; or, if and , it can evolve from a flat spatially-infinite state to a non extended
singularity; or, if , evolve from an extended singularity
to a non singular state and, at last, proceed towards a singularity
- âŠ