Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Background: The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. Methods: We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as “at increased risk of severe COVID-19” in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection–hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection–hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. Findings: We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0–2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from <5% of those younger than 20 years to >66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186–787) people (4% [3–9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging from <1% of those younger than 20 years to approximately 20% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated 6% (3–12) of males to be at high risk compared with 3% (2–7) of females. The share of the population at increased risk was highest in countries with older populations, African countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, and small island nations with high diabetes prevalence. Estimates of the number of individuals at increased risk were most sensitive to the prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic respiratory disease. Interpretation: About one in five individuals worldwide could be at increased risk of severe COVID-19, should they become infected, due to underlying health conditions, but this risk varies considerably by age. Our estimates are uncertain, and focus on underlying conditions rather than other risk factors such as ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and obesity, but provide a starting point for considering the number of individuals that might need to be shielded or vaccinated as the global pandemic unfolds. Funding: UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Epidemiology and cost of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia among patients treated in primary care centres in the valencian community of Spain

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Data on the epidemiology and costs related to herpes zoster (HZ) and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) in Spain are scarce; therefore, studies are needed to evaluate the epidemiological and economic impact of HZ and its most common complication, PHN. The present study aimed to estimate the clinical and economic burden of HZ and PHN in Valencia (Spain).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We prospectively analyzed the burden of HZ and PHN and their attributable costs in patients from 25 general practices in the Autonomous Community of Valencia serving 36,030 persons aged > 14 years. All patients with a clinical diagnosis of HZ who attended these centers between December 1^st2006 and November 30^th2007 were asked to participate. Patients included were followed for 1 year.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 130 cases of HZ followed up, continued pain was experienced by 47.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 35.6-56.7%) at 1 month after rash onset, by 14.5% (95% CI = 7.8-1.2%) at 3 months, by 9.0% (95% CI = 3.7-14.3%) at 6 months, and by 5.9% (95% CI = 1.5-10.3%) at 12 months. The percentage of patients with PHN increased with age, from 21.4% (95% CI = 8.3-40) in patients < 50 years to 59.2% (95% CI = 44.4-74) in patients ≥ 70 years. The estimated total cost for the 130 HZ cases during the follow-up period was €49,160 ($67,349). Mean cost per patient was €378 (range 53-2,830) ($517, range 73-3,877).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study shows that PHN is a relatively common complication of HZ and that both conditions combined give rise to a significant clinical and economic burden for patients and providers.</p

Relationships between psychosocial outcomes in adolescents who are obese and their parents during a multi-disciplinary family-based healthy lifestyle intervention: One-year follow-up of a waitlist controlled trial (Curtin University's Activity, Food and Attitudes Program)

Background: Limited studies have investigated relationships in psychosocial outcomes between adolescents who are obese and their parents and how psychosocial outcomes change during participation in a physical activity and healthy eating intervention. This study examined both adolescent and parent psychosocial outcomes while participating in a one - year multi-disciplinary family-based intervention: Curtin University’s Activity, Food, and Attitudes Program (CAFAP). Methods: Following a waitlist control period, the intervention was delivered to adolescent (n = 56, ages 11–16) and parent participants over 8 weeks, with one-year maintenance follow-up. Adolescent depression and quality of life, family functioning, and parent depression, anxiety, and stress were assessed at six time points: baseline and prior to intervention (e.g., waitlist control period), immediately following intervention, and at 3, 6, and 12 months post-intervention. Relationships between adolescent and parent psychosocial outcomes were assessed using Spearman correlations and changes in both adolescent and parent outcomes were assessed using linear mixed models. Changes in adolescent psychosocial outcomes were compared to changes in behavioural (physical activity and healthy eating) and physical (weight) outcomes using independent samples t-tests.Results: The majority of psychosocial outcomes were significantly correlated between adolescents and parents across the one-year follow-up. Adolescent depression, psychosocial and physical quality of life outcomes significantly improved before or following intervention and were maintained at 6-months or one-year follow-up. Parent symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress were reduced during waitlist and primarily remained improved. Changes in adolescent psychosocial outcomes were shown to be partially associated with behavioural changes and independent of physical changes. Conclusions: Adolescents in CAFAP improved psychosocial and physical quality of life and reversed the typical trajectory of depressive symptoms in adolescents who are obese during a one-year maintenance period. CAFAP was also effective at maintaining reductions in parent symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress demonstrated during the waitlist period. Trial Registration: The trial was registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (No. 12611001187932)

The ERK and JNK pathways in the regulation of metabolic reprogramming.

Most tumor cells reprogram their glucose metabolism as a result of mutations in oncogenes and tumor suppressors, leading to the constitutive activation of signaling pathways involved in cell growth. This metabolic reprogramming, known as aerobic glycolysis or the Warburg effect, allows tumor cells to sustain their fast proliferation and evade apoptosis. Interfering with oncogenic signaling pathways that regulate the Warburg effect in cancer cells has therefore become an attractive anticancer strategy. However, evidence for the occurrence of the Warburg effect in physiological processes has also been documented. As such, close consideration of which signaling pathways are beneficial targets and the effect of their inhibition on physiological processes are essential. The MAPK/ERK and MAPK/JNK pathways, crucial for normal cellular responses to extracellular stimuli, have recently emerged as key regulators of the Warburg effect during tumorigenesis and normal cellular functions. In this review, we summarize our current understanding of the roles of the ERK and JNK pathways in controlling the Warburg effect in cancer and discuss their implication in controlling this metabolic reprogramming in physiological processes and opportunities for targeting their downstream effectors for therapeutic purposes.Brunel Research Initiative & Enterprise Fund, Brunel University of London (to CB), Kay Kendall Leukemia Fund (KKL443) (to CB), 250 Great Minds Fellowship, University of Leeds (to SP), AMMF Cholangiocarcinoma Charity (to SP and PMC), and Bloodwise (17014) (to SP and CB)

The Single-Phase ProtoDUNE Technical Design Report

ProtoDUNE-SP is the single-phase DUNE Far Detector prototype that is under construction and will be operated at the CERN Neutrino Platform (NP) starting in 2018. ProtoDUNE-SP, a crucial part of the DUNE effort towards the construction of the first DUNE 10-kt fiducial mass far detector module (17 kt total LAr mass), is a significant experiment in its own right. With a total liquid argon (LAr) mass of 0.77 kt, it represents the largest monolithic single-phase LArTPC detector to be built to date. It's technical design is given in this report

Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) Conceptual Design Report Volume 1: The LBNF and DUNE Projects

This document presents the Conceptual Design Report (CDR) put forward by an international neutrino community to pursue the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment at the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF/DUNE), a groundbreaking science experiment for long-baseline neutrino oscillation studies and for neutrino astrophysics and nucleon decay searches. The DUNE far detector will be a very large modular liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC) located deep underground, coupled to the LBNF multi-megawatt wide-band neutrino beam. DUNE will also have a high-resolution and high-precision near detector

The DUNE Far Detector Interim Design Report, Volume 3: Dual-Phase Module

The DUNE IDR describes the proposed physics program and technical designs of the DUNE far detector modules in preparation for the full TDR to be published in 2019. It is intended as an intermediate milestone on the path to a full TDR, justifying the technical choices that flow down from the high-level physics goals through requirements at all levels of the Project. These design choices will enable the DUNE experiment to make the ground-breaking discoveries that will help to answer fundamental physics questions. Volume 3 describes the dual-phase module's subsystems, the technical coordination required for its design, construction, installation, and integration, and its organizational structure

The DUNE Far Detector Interim Design Report, Volume 2: Single-Phase Module

The DUNE IDR describes the proposed physics program and technical designs of the DUNE far detector modules in preparation for the full TDR to be published in 2019. It is intended as an intermediate milestone on the path to a full TDR, justifying the technical choices that flow down from the high-level physics goals through requirements at all levels of the Project. These design choices will enable the DUNE experiment to make the ground-breaking discoveries that will help to answer fundamental physics questions. Volume 2 describes the single-phase module's subsystems, the technical coordination required for its design, construction, installation, and integration, and its organizational structure

The DUNE Far Detector Interim Design Report Volume 1: Physics, Technology and Strategies

The DUNE IDR describes the proposed physics program and technical designs of the DUNE Far Detector modules in preparation for the full TDR to be published in 2019. It is intended as an intermediate milestone on the path to a full TDR, justifying the technical choices that flow down from the high-level physics goals through requirements at all levels of the Project. These design choices will enable the DUNE experiment to make the ground-breaking discoveries that will help to answer fundamental physics questions. Volume 1 contains an executive summary that describes the general aims of this document. The remainder of this first volume provides a more detailed description of the DUNE physics program that drives the choice of detector technologies. It also includes concise outlines of two overarching systems that have not yet evolved to consortium structures: computing and calibration. Volumes 2 and 3 of this IDR describe, for the single-phase and dual-phase technologies, respectively, each detector module's subsystems, the technical coordination required for its design, construction, installation, and integration, and its organizational structure