A Multiresolution Stochastic Process Model for Predicting Basketball Possession Outcomes

Basketball games evolve continuously in space and time as players constantly interact with their teammates, the opposing team, and the ball. However, current analyses of basketball outcomes rely on discretized summaries of the game that reduce such interactions to tallies of points, assists, and similar events. In this paper, we propose a framework for using optical player tracking data to estimate, in real time, the expected number of points obtained by the end of a possession. This quantity, called \textit{expected possession value} (EPV), derives from a stochastic process model for the evolution of a basketball possession; we model this process at multiple levels of resolution, differentiating between continuous, infinitesimal movements of players, and discrete events such as shot attempts and turnovers. Transition kernels are estimated using hierarchical spatiotemporal models that share information across players while remaining computationally tractable on very large data sets. In addition to estimating EPV, these models reveal novel insights on players' decision-making tendencies as a function of their spatial strategy.Comment: 31 pages, 9 figure

Enhancing immunity by engineering DAMPs

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An Engineering, Economic, and Political Approach to Beach Erosion Mitigation and Harbor Development: A Review of the Beach Communities of Camp Ellis, Maine, Wells, Maine, and Cape May, New Jersey

The history of coastal engineering projects is fraught with problems. In this thesis I examine the federal navigation project at Wells, Maine. In Wells, an incomplete understanding of the coastal setting led to a faulty engineering design responsible for a poorly functioning inlet and harbor and damage to neighboring beaches and wildlife habitat. Project planners and designers did not account for all unforeseen problems that arose. Reviewing the history of Wells Harbor demonstrates how proper attention to the natural setting, economics, and the political environment is essential to a successful project and enables agencies and stakeholders better to address contingencies when they arise. An embedded case study of the Wells Harbor Navigation project examines the project\u27s different components separately and holistically. Additional embedded case studies were constructed for the Saco River Navigation Project in Saco, Maine, and the Cold Spring Inlet Navigation Project in Cape May, New Jersey. Cross-case analysis of the two Maine projects reinforces findings while differences observed with the New Jersey project offer robust results of interest to a wider range of coastal managers. Analysis of the natural setting at Wells Harbor reveals that engineering designs were based on misconceptions of coastal processes in the project areas. Subsequent design changes and mitigation efforts recycled the original flawed data, hence creating larger projects with larger problems. Economic analysis highlights a history of underestimated cost and over-estimated benefit projections at Wells. Traditional benefit-cost analyses did not account for all possible costs, or for uncertainty of benefits, and therefore poorly measured changes to social well-being. As a result, an economically marginal project was authorized. Once the project began and problems surfaced, federal economic guidelines and a lack of community and state resources limited the possible response options. A series of interviews and a review of the Wells Harbor Project history depict a contentious political environment. Special interests applied political pressure to get authorization of the marginal project. As problems arose during construction, relationships between local, state, and federal interests deteriorated, impeding consensus on a plan to address the community\u27s problems. Cross-case analysis with both the Saco River Project and the Cold Spring Inlet Project support these findings. Results stress the importance of policy makers and coastal managers encouraging continued research on coastal settings to improve their understanding of local and regional coastal processes. These studies reveal the limitation of traditional benefit-cost analysis as a decision-making tool. Other economic models that incorporate the uncertainty of the setting and the value of non-market amenities are more appropriate for coastal projects. Sound partnerships between agencies, the participation of all stakeholders, and fbll disclosure of information is necessary for addressing problems when they arise and avoiding future complications

Attraction and Retention—Maine’s Challenge

In the Margaret Chase Smith Essay Ed Cervone, Presdent/CEO of the Maine Development Foundation, discusses Maine’s demographic challenges in attracting and retaining population if the state is to grow its economy and sustain that growth. He makes recommendations for attracting a larger, younger, and more diverse population

In Search of Happiness: Connecting Racism, Gender, and Class across borders.

In this article, I highlight the major complexities related to the industry of sex tourism in Brazil focusing specifically on the relationships between white European men and light skin Brazilian women. My analysis takes into account the intersectionality of race, gender and class in this type of tourist encounters, and argues that sex tourism reflects the redefinition of geopolitical and economic disparities in the global arena. I examine the emergence of this industry in Brazil in connection not only with socio-economic policies such as neoliberal structural adjustments, and the revitalization of tourism in the Latin American region, but also with the impacts of global economic changes that affected those countries in Europe from where the vast majority of these tourists departs

Modelling and control techniques for multiphase electric drives: a phase variable approach

Multiphase electric drives are today one of the most relevant research topics for the electrical engineering scientific community, thanks to the many advantages they offer over standard three-phase solutions (e.g., power segmentation, fault-tolerance, optimized performances, torque/power sharing strategies, etc...). They are considered promising solutions in many application areas, like industry, traction and renewable energy integration, and especially in presence of high-power or high-reliability requirements. However, contrarily to the three-phase counterparts, multiphase drives can assume a wider variety of different configurations, concerning both the electrical machine (e.g., symmetrical/asymmetrical windings disposition, concentrated/distributed windings, etc...) and the overall drive topology (e.g., single-star configuration, multiple-star configuration, open-end windings, etc…). This aspect, together with the higher number of variables of the system, can make their analysis and control more challenging, especially when dealing with reconfigurable systems (e.g., in post-fault scenarios). This Ph.D. thesis is focused on the mathematical modelling and on the control of multiphase electric drives. The aim of this research is to develop a generalized model-based approach that can be used in multiple configurations and scenarios, requiring minimal reconfigurations to deal with different machine designs and/or different converter topologies, and suitable both in healthy and in faulty operating conditions. Standard field-oriented approaches for the analysis and control of multiphase drives, directly derived as extensions of the three-phase equivalents, despite being relatively easy and convenient solutions to deal with symmetrical machines, may suffer some hurdles when applied to some asymmetrical configurations, including post-fault layouts. To address these issues, a different approach, completely derived in the phase variable domain, is here developed. The method does not require any vector space decomposition or rotational transformation but instead explicitly considers the mathematical properties of the multiphase machine and the effects of the drive topology (which typically introduces some constraints on the system variables). In this thesis work, the proposed approach is particularized for multiphase permanent magnet synchronous machines and for multiphase synchronous reluctance machines. All the results are obtained through rigorous mathematical derivations, and are supported and validated by both numerical analysis and experimental tests. As proven considering many different configurations and scenarios, the main benefits of the proposed methodology are its generality and flexibility, which make it a viable alternative to standard modelling and control algorithms

RECALIBRATING THE FORUM NON CONVENIENS ANALYSIS: THE EFFECTS OF TECHNOLOGY ON TRANSPORTING EVIDENCE

This Note seeks to reexamine the judge-made doctrine of forum non conveniens. Advances in technology and changes in the rules governing evidence transportation render it easier for a defendant to litigate in foreign fora than ever before. Judges should consider these developments in the litigation landscape when evaluating a defendants motion to dismiss pursuant to forum non conveniens. The doctrine should be recalibrated so that it leads to dismissal only in cases where it is impossible for the defendants to litigate in plaintiffs chosen forum