Investment in Infectious Disease Control Capacity: The Case of a Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in California

Health Economics and Policy,

Estimación de edades arqueológicas usando la hidratación de obsidianas: dos fuentes de los andes meridionales

Obsidian is abundant in archaeological sites throughout Mendoza Province, Argentina but no obsidian hydration rates exist to date these assemblages. Direct dating of obsidian artifacts is particularly important in west-central Argentina because the surface record is extensive but well-defined time marker artifacts are lacking. The costs of non-optical hydration dating techniques currently preclude their regular use in the region, however. We present and evaluate 12 models for age estimation based on optical hydration rim measurements for the two most commonly used obsidian types in the region (Las Cargas and Laguna del Maule). Age estimation equations are derived for each source using observed hydration rim-radiocarbon date pairs, and parameterized by variables known to influence obsidian hydration in experimental settings. The equations advanced here are currently best at predicting the known ages of artifacts independently dated by radiocarbon, and can be cautiously used to estimate the ages of obsidian artifacts.Las obsidianas son abundantes en los sitios arqueológicos de la provincia de Mendoza (Argentina). Sin embargo, hasta el momento no existen estimaciones para las tasas de hidratación de estas rocas que puedan utilizarse para fechar esos conjuntos líticos. La realización de fechados directos sobre artefactos de obsidiana resulta particularmente importante para esta región, dado que existe un vasto registro arqueológico de superficie –compuesto principalmente por artefactos líticos– y solo se cuenta con tipos morfológicos cronológicamente sensibles para el Holoceno Tardío. Aquí se presentan y evalúan 12 modelos para estimar las edades de los artefactos de obsidiana basados en la medición óptica de los anillos de hidratación. Específicamente estos modelos fueron desarrollados para las dos obsidianas más comunes en los contextos arqueológicos de la región, procedentes de las fuentes de Las Cargas y Laguna del Maule. Las edades estimadas son derivadas para cada fuente a partir de pares de medición del espesor de la corteza de hidratación-fechado radiocarbono, y calibradas con variables cuya influencia sobre la hidratación ha sido establecida experimentalmente. Las ecuaciones que presentamos son actualmente las que mejor predicen las edades conocidas de artefactos que han sido fechados independientemente por radiocarbono y, por lo tanto, pueden utilizarse con cautela para estimar la antigüedad de los artefactos de obsidiana procedentes de la región.Fil: Garvey, Raven. University of Michigan; Estados UnidosFil: Carpenter, Tim. Archaeometrics; Estados UnidosFil: Gil, Adolfo Fabian. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Filosofía y Letras; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla | Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla | Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla; ArgentinaFil: Neme, Gustavo Adolfo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla | Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla | Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla; ArgentinaFil: Bettinger, Robert. University of California at Davis; Estados Unido

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Air Force Office of Scientific Research (F49620-01-1-0397); National Science Foundation (SBE-0354378); Office of Naval Research (N00014-01-1-0624)

The Role of Canids in Ritual and Domestic Contexts: New Ancient DNA Insights from Complex Hunter-Gatherer Sites in Prehistoric Central California

This study explores the interrelationship between the genus Canis and hunter–gatherers through a case study of prehistoric Native Americans in the San Francisco Bay-Sacramento Delta area. A distinctive aspect of the region\u27s prehistoric record is the interment of canids, variously classified as coyotes, dogs, and wolves. Since these species are difficult to distinguish based solely on morphology, ancient DNA analysis was employed to distinguish species. The DNA study results, the first on canids from archaeological sites in California, are entirely represented by domesticated dogs (including both interments and disarticulated samples from midden deposits). These results, buttressed by stable isotope analyses, provide new insight into the complex interrelationship between humans and canids in both ritual and prosaic contexts, and reveal a more prominent role for dogs than previously envisioned

Relative Abundance of Sixgill Sharks (Hexanchus griseus) in Elliott Bay, Seattle, Washington

The Sixgill Shark Research Project is designed to address gaps in the body of scientific knowledge on bluntnose sixgill sharks (Hexanchus griseus) in Puget Sound. This project utilizes three interwoven techniques: (1) genetics research, (2) visual marker tagging, and (3) video analysis. Seattle Aquarium biologists monitor sixgill shark sightings reported by local divers (since 1999) and study their relative abundance in Elliott Bay under the Aquarium’s pier (since 2003). Here we report on our findings of relative abundance. Bluntnose sixgills are a species of conservation concern. Sixgills are listed as “near threatened” on the IUCN Red List. Living mainly at abyssal depths but also in the shallow waters of the Salish Sea, sixgills are thought to be long-lived and slow-growing, and appear to have established movement corridors and home ranges that remain relatively fixed over time. As apex predators they are important members of marine communities; and, owing to their life history characteristics such as a slow rate of maturity and low reproductive rates, are thought to be extremely vulnerable to exploitation. Here we present our findings of relative abundance of sixgill sharks in Elliot Bay during the two time periods that the research was conducted: 2003-2005 and 2008-2015. We present the number of individual sharks seen each night, number of sharks tagged, number of returning tagged sharks, sex ratios, estimated number of sixgills residing in Elliott Bay (using capture-mark-recapture techniques), and seasonal and long-term trends in abundance

Observations on abundance of bluntnose sixgill sharks, Hexanchus griseus, in an urban waterway in the Salish Sea, 2003-2012

The bluntnose sixgill shark, Hexanchus griseus, is a widely distributed but poorly understood large, apex predator. Anecdotal reports of diver-shark encounters in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s in the Pacific Northwest stimulated interest in the normally deep-dwelling shark and the reason for its presence in the shallow waters of the Salish Sea. Analysis of underwater video documenting sharks at the Seattle Aquarium’s sixgill research site on Seattle’s waterfront and mark-recapture techniques were used to identify individual sharks to answer simple questions about abundance and seasonality. Temporal changes in relative abundance in Puget Sound were reported from a controlled study site from 2003-2012. At the Seattle Aquarium study site, 45 sixgills were observed and tagged with modified Floy visual marker tags, along with an estimated 116 observations of untagged sharks. Mark/Recapture statistical model estimates based on video observations ranged from a high of 98 sharks observed in July of 2004 to a low of 0 sharks observed in several research events from 2008-2012. Both analyses found sixgills significantly more abundant in the summer months at the Aquarium’s research station from 2003-2005 than at any other time during the study

Non-inferiority trials: are they inferior? A systematic review of reporting in major medical journals.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the adequacy of reporting of non-inferiority trials alongside the consistency and utility of current recommended analyses and guidelines. DESIGN: Review of randomised clinical trials that used a non-inferiority design published between January 2010 and May 2015 in medical journals that had an impact factor >10 (JAMA Internal Medicine, Archives Internal Medicine, PLOS Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, JAMA, Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine). DATA SOURCES: Ovid (MEDLINE). METHODS: We searched for non-inferiority trials and assessed the following: choice of non-inferiority margin and justification of margin; power and significance level for sample size; patient population used and how this was defined; any missing data methods used and assumptions declared and any sensitivity analyses used. RESULTS: A total of 168 trial publications were included. Most trials concluded non-inferiority (132; 79%). The non-inferiority margin was reported for 98% (164), but less than half reported any justification for the margin (77; 46%). While most chose two different analyses (91; 54%) the most common being intention-to-treat (ITT) or modified ITT and per-protocol, a large number of articles only chose to conduct and report one analysis (65; 39%), most commonly the ITT analysis. There was lack of clarity or inconsistency between the type I error rate and corresponding CIs for 73 (43%) articles. Missing data were rarely considered with (99; 59%) not declaring whether imputation techniques were used. CONCLUSIONS: Reporting and conduct of non-inferiority trials is inconsistent and does not follow the recommendations in available statistical guidelines, which are not wholly consistent themselves. Authors should clearly describe the methods used and provide clear descriptions of and justifications for their design and primary analysis. Failure to do this risks misleading conclusions being drawn, with consequent effects on clinical practice