Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on the Dynamics of Extratropical Cyclones and Orographic Precipitation in High Mountain Asia

Westerly disturbances are the primary climatic influence within High Mountain Asia during winter, producing over half of annual precipitation in 4-6 events per winter season and supplying essential water resources for large populations across Asia. This research examines High Mountain Asia’s hydroclimate, focusing on the relationship between westerly disturbance dynamics, the mechanisms that drive orographic precipitation, and their variability on intraseasonal and interannual scales. The first chapter establishes that extreme winter precipitation events in High Mountain Asia are primarily attributable to combined contributions from dynamical forcing and moisture availability during westerly disturbance interaction with regional topography. A novel wave-tracking algorithm was developed to provide an inventory of location, timing, intensity, and duration of westerly disturbance events, allowing for a comprehensive study of the mechanisms that drive orographic precipitation, on an individual event basis and in the aggregate. In the second chapter, westerly disturbances are investigated using extreme event composites to identify significant influence of global atmospheric variability over westerly disturbance dynamics and moisture availability, focusing on tropical forcing by the Madden Julian Oscillation on intraseasonal timescales and the El Nino Southern Oscillation on interannual scales. This work demonstrates that El Nino simultaneously enhances the strength of the storm track and moisture availability to westerly disturbances. Contrastingly, during Madden Julian Oscillation propagation there is a transition in the balance of contributions from moisture availability and dynamical forcing to orographic precipitation. The third chapter of this dissertation employs a mesoscale model to perform a set of modified topography experiments in which extreme precipitation events in High Mountain Asia that were related to westerly disturbances are simulated at 6km resolution with native model topography and with smoothed topography taken from a global circulation model. These experiments illustrate that topographic smoothing fundamentally alters the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that produce orographic precipitation during westerly disturbances, and identifies important deficiencies in the ability of models with coarse topographic resolution to simulate High Mountain Asia weather and climate. Collectively, the three chapters of this dissertation give novel insight into the dynamics of westerly disturbances, how these systems generate extreme precipitation events in High Mountain Asia, and their relationships with global atmospheric variability. These findings advance the scientific community’s understanding of weather and climate in High Mountain Asia and improve the potential for evaluating the current state and future fate of regional water resources

Contrasting local and long-range-transported warm ice-nucleating particles during an atmospheric river in coastal California, USA

Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) have been found to influence the amount, phase and efficiency of precipitation from winter storms, including atmospheric rivers.Warm INPs, those that initiate freezing at temperatures warmer than -10°C, are thought to be particularly impactful because they can create primary ice in mixed-phase clouds, enhancing precipitation efficiency. The dominant sources of warm INPs during atmospheric rivers, the role of meteorology in modulating transport and injection of warm INPs into atmospheric river clouds, and the impact of warm INPs on mixed-phase cloud properties are not well-understood. In this case study, time-resolved precipitation samples were collected during an atmospheric river in northern California, USA, during winter 2016. Precipitation samples were collected at two sites, one coastal and one inland, which are separated by about 35 km. The sites are sufficiently close that air mass sources during this storm were almost identical, but the inland site was exposed to terrestrial sources of warm INPs while the coastal site was not. Warm INPs were more numerous in precipitation at the inland site by an order of magnitude. Using FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model) dispersion modeling and radar-derived cloud vertical structure, we detected influence from terrestrial INP sources at the inland site but did not find clear evidence of marine warm INPs at either site.We episodically detected warm INPs from long-range-transported sources at both sites. By extending the FLEXPART modeling using a meteorological reanalysis, we demonstrate that long-range-transported warm INPs were observed only when the upper tropospheric jet provided transport to cloud tops. Using radar-derived hydrometeor classifications, we demonstrate that hydrometeors over the terrestrially influenced inland site were more likely to be in the ice phase for cloud temperatures between 0 and -10°C. We thus conclude that terrestrial and long-rangetransported aerosol were important sources of warm INPs during this atmospheric river. Meteorological details such as transport mechanism and cloud structure were important in determining (i) warm INP source and injection temperature and (ii) ultimately the impact of warm INPs on mixed-phase cloud properties

State of the world’s plants and fungi 2020

Kew’s State of the World’s Plants and Fungi project provides assessments of our current knowledge of the diversity of plants and fungi on Earth, the global threats that they face, and the policies to safeguard them. Produced in conjunction with an international scientific symposium, Kew’s State of the World’s Plants and Fungi sets an important international standard from which we can annually track trends in the global status of plant and fungal diversity

Intraseasonal-to-Interannual Variability of the Indian Monsoon Identified with the Large-Scale Index for the Indian Monsoon System (LIMS)

Abstract The Indian monsoon system (IMS) is among the most complex and important climatic features on land. This study proposes a simple and robust method to investigate large-scale variations and changes in the IMS that accounts for fluctuations in amplitude, onset, and duration of the summer monsoon, including active and break phases, and the postmonsoon season. This study uses 35 years (1979–2013) of daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) at 1° resolution and indicates great potential for application to other reanalyses and climate model datasets. The method is based on combined EOF (CEOF) analysis of variables associated with the IMS’s seasonal cycle (precipitation, circulation at 10 m, and temperature and specific humidity at 2 m). The first CEOF (CEOF-1) explains ~40% of the total variance and represents the continental-scale Asian monsoon. The second CEOF (CEOF-2) explains 11% of the variance and characterizes the Indian monsoon variability, including increased precipitation over western, central, and northern parts of India and the monsoon onset and demise over those regions. Thus, CEOF-2 is referred to as the large-scale index for the Indian monsoon system (LIMS). It is shown that LIMS’s amplitude is strongly correlated with the total June–September precipitation over India. LIMS is continuous in time and can be used to evaluate significant postmonsoon rainfall events that often affect the Indian subcontinent. Moreover, LIMS exhibits spectral variance on intraseasonal time scales that are associated with active and break phases of the monsoon during summer and enhanced rainfall in the postmonsoon period

Intraseasonal-to-Interannual Variability of the Indian Monsoon Identified with the Large-Scale Index for the Indian Monsoon System (LIMS)

Abstract The Indian monsoon system (IMS) is among the most complex and important climatic features on land. This study proposes a simple and robust method to investigate large-scale variations and changes in the IMS that accounts for fluctuations in amplitude, onset, and duration of the summer monsoon, including active and break phases, and the postmonsoon season. This study uses 35 years (1979–2013) of daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) at 1° resolution and indicates great potential for application to other reanalyses and climate model datasets. The method is based on combined EOF (CEOF) analysis of variables associated with the IMS’s seasonal cycle (precipitation, circulation at 10 m, and temperature and specific humidity at 2 m). The first CEOF (CEOF-1) explains ~40% of the total variance and represents the continental-scale Asian monsoon. The second CEOF (CEOF-2) explains 11% of the variance and characterizes the Indian monsoon variability, including increased precipitation over western, central, and northern parts of India and the monsoon onset and demise over those regions. Thus, CEOF-2 is referred to as the large-scale index for the Indian monsoon system (LIMS). It is shown that LIMS’s amplitude is strongly correlated with the total June–September precipitation over India. LIMS is continuous in time and can be used to evaluate significant postmonsoon rainfall events that often affect the Indian subcontinent. Moreover, LIMS exhibits spectral variance on intraseasonal time scales that are associated with active and break phases of the monsoon during summer and enhanced rainfall in the postmonsoon period

Contrasting Local and Long-Range-Transported Warm Ice-Nucleating Particles During an Atmospheric River in Coastal California, USA

Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) have been found to influence the amount, phase and efficiency of precipitation from winter storms, including atmospheric rivers. Warm INPs, those that initiate freezing at temperatures warmer than −10ºC, are thought to be particularly impactful because they can create primary ice in mixed-phase clouds, enhancing precipitation efficiency. The dominant sources of warm INPs during atmospheric rivers, the role of meteorology in modulating transport and injection of warm INPs into atmospheric river clouds, and the impact of warm INPs on mixed-phase cloud properties are not well-understood. In this case study, time-resolved precipitation samples were collected during an atmospheric river in northern California, USA, during winter 2016. Precipitation samples were collected at two sites, one coastal and one inland, which are separated by about 35 km. The sites are sufficiently close that air mass sources during this storm were almost identical, but the inland site was exposed to terrestrial sources of warm INPs while the coastal site was not. Warm INPs were more numerous in precipitation at the inland site by an order of magnitude. Using FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model) dispersion modeling and radar-derived cloud vertical structure, we detected influence from terrestrial INP sources at the inland site but did not find clear evidence of marine warm INPs at either site. We episodically detected warm INPs from long-range-transported sources at both sites. By extending the FLEXPART modeling using a meteorological reanalysis, we demonstrate that long-range-transported warm INPs were observed only when the upper tropospheric jet provided transport to cloud tops. Using radar-derived hydrometeor classifications, we demonstrate that hydrometeors over the terrestrially influenced inland site were more likely to be in the ice phase for cloud temperatures between 0 and −10°C. We thus conclude that terrestrial and long-range-transported aerosol were important sources of warm INPs during this atmospheric river. Meteorological details such as transport mechanism and cloud structure were important in determining (i) warm INP source and injection temperature and (ii) ultimately the impact of warm INPs on mixed-phase cloud properties