The social relation to the environment in contemporary capitalism: theoretical reflections and empirical explorations

This paper analyses the socio-economic context into which environmental policies and ecological sentiments emerge through empirically studying the relation to the environment of different kinds of capitalism. The association and interaction of the relation to the environment with other key social relations, e.g. the labour-capital relations, are studied and discussed. To achieve this, I draw from Regulation Theory and augment its analytical framework with an explicit environmental dimension. I then conduct an empirical analysis of the diversity of contemporary capitalism including the social relation to the environment for a sample of thirty-seven OECD and BRICS countries. Five kinds of capitalism are identified: the Northern-continental European, the Southern-central European, the Anglo-Saxon and Pacific, the Emerging Countries and the Two Giants. A main result is the correspondence between ecology-prone social relations to the environment, labour oriented capital-labour relations and welfare-oriented states. However, the results show that countries that are the most ecology-prone are also the ones that have the most relocated their environmental impact, an observation consistent with the critical literature on the Environmental Kuznets Curve.Series: Ecological Economic Paper

Varieties of carbon voluntarism in contemporary capitalism

We investigate national greenhouse gases mitigation objectives, labeled as carbon voluntarism, in the context of contemporary globalized finance-led capitalism. Using principal components analysis and clustering, we delineate a typology of OECD and BRICS countries from the standpoint of the assumed underpinnings of carbon voluntarism: the productive structure of the economy, the relative position in global GHG chains, the levels of income and capitalist development, the political demand for the environment, the class structure of GHG emissions and financialization.The least carbon voluntary countries appear to be at the beginning of global GHG chains and to rely heavily on the primary sector. They have a weak political demand for the environment and a more unequal class structure of emissions. The most carbon voluntary countries have a higher political demand for the environment, a more equal class structure of emissions, weaker financialization, and greater reliance on the tertiary sector. These countries are also net importers of GHG emissions.On s’intéresse dans ce travail aux objectifs de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES), que l’on désigne par le terme volontarisme carbone, dans le contexte du capitalisme globalisé et tiré par la finance. A partir d’une analyse en composante principale et d’une classification, on esquisse une typologie des pays de notre échantillon (OCDE et BRICS) du point de vue des déterminants hypothétiques du volontarisme carbone : le tissu productif des économies, la position relative dans les chaines globales de GES, le niveau de revenu et de développement capitaliste, la demande politique d’environnement, la structure de classe des émissions et le processus de financiarisation. Les pays les moins volontaristes sont ceux situés au début des chaines globales de GES et dont le secteur primaire est le plus important. Ils ont une faible demande politique d’environnement et une structure de classe des émissions plus inégale. Les pays les plus volontaires ont une demande politique d’environnement supérieure, une structure de classe des émissions plus égalitaire, la financiarisation y est moins importante et la tertiarisation plus poussée. Ils sont également importateurs nets de GES

Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation

This article develops a novel methodological framework to investigate the exposure of eco- nomic systems to the risk of physical capital stranding. Combining Input-Output (IO) and network theory, we define measures to identify both the sectors likely to trigger relevant capital stranding cascades and those most exposed to capital stranding risk. We show how, in a sample of ten European countries, mining is among the sectors with the highest external asset strand- ing multipliers. The sectors most affected by capital stranding triggered by decarbonisation include electricity and gas; coke and refined petroleum products; basic metals; and transporta- tion. From these sectors, stranding would frequently cascade down to chemicals; metal products; motor vehicles water and waste services; wholesale and retail trade; and public administration. Finally, we provide an estimate for the lower-bound amount of assets at risk of transition-related stranding, which is in the range of 0.6-8.2% of the overall productive capital stock for our sample of countries, mainly concentrated in the electricity and gas sector, manufacturing, and mining. These results confirm the systemic relevance of transition-related risks on European societies.Series: Ecological Economic Paper

Stranding ahoy? Heterogeneous transition beliefs and capital investment choices

Individuals have heterogeneous beliefs regarding the future speed and shape of the low-carbon transition. In this paper, we study to what extent opinion diversity matters for aggregate capital investment decisions. We develop a model where firms formulate heterogeneous expectations around a dominant narrative, or ‘market norm’, with their dispersion increasing over a finite planning horizon. Our analytical and numerical results suggest that belief heterogeneity can significantly affect the share of low-carbon investments, with the strength of its effects non-linearly correlated to market norms. We show that investment behaviour tends to be more sensitive to shocks to short-term, rather than long-term, belief heterogeneity, highlighting the importance of setting credible short-term targets. Finally, we find beliefs to interact strongly and in non-trivial ways with measures of short-termism, with increasing agents' farsightedness not necessarily leading to less carbon-intensive investments under high heterogeneity.</p

Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation

The aim of this article is to assess the exposure of economic systems to the risk of physical capital stranding following a reduction of fossil fuel production and use. We calculate cross-sectoral and cross-country ‘marginal stranding multipliers’ for 43 regions, and study how supply-side capital stranding might propagate via international production networks. We show how the fossil industry has the potential of creating significant stranding cascades affecting downstream sectors and the economic system as a whole. We then focus on cross-country stranding impacts and rank countries according to their external stranding potential and to their exposure to external strandingrisk. Finally, we analyse more in depth the origins and transmission channels of the stranding links affecting the most exposed countries (US, China and Germany). Our results confirm the relevance of including multi-regional production networks and physical capital stranding into the ongoing effort to assess the macro-financial implications of a low-carbon transition.Series: Ecological Economic Paper