Breaking the Circularity in Circular Analyses: Simulations and Formal Treatment of the Flattened Average Approach

There has been considerable debate and concern as to whether there is a replication crisis in the scientific literature. A likely cause of poor replication is the multiple comparisons problem. An important way in which this problem can manifest in the M/EEG context is through post hoc tailoring of analysis windows (a.k.a. regions-of-interest, ROIs) to landmarks in the collected data. Post hoc tailoring of ROIs is used because it allows researchers to adapt to inter-experiment variability and discover novel differences that fall outside of windows defined by prior precedent, thereby reducing Type II errors. However, this approach can dramatically inflate Type I error rates. One way to avoid this problem is to tailor windows according to a contrast that is orthogonal (strictly parametrically orthogonal) to the contrast being tested. A key approach of this kind is to identify windows on a fully flattened average. On the basis of simulations, this approach has been argued to be safe for post hoc tailoring of analysis windows under many conditions. Here, we present further simulations and mathematical proofs to show exactly why the Fully Flattened Average approach is unbiased, providing a formal grounding to the approach, clarifying the limits of its applicability and resolving published misconceptions about the method. We also provide a statistical power analysis, which shows that, in specific contexts, the fully flattened average approach provides higher statistical power than Fieldtrip cluster inference. This suggests that the Fully Flattened Average approach will enable researchers to identify more effects from their data without incurring an inflation of the false positive rate

Community resilience to climate change: an evidence review

The concept of community resilience to climate change in the UK has a diverse range of meanings and associated activities. This review of evidence and practice explores this varied and contested field to build the evidence base and help support the development of community resilience to climate change. The report shows: •the variety of actions being carried out across the UK that can be classed as improving resilience of communities to climate change; •the barriers and facilitators to improving resilience to climate change for communities; •the value of a framework to understand resilience of communities to climate change that emphasises existing capacities of communities, engagement and empowerment of citizens, and multi-level governance; and •examples of innovative actions to improve resilience of communities to climate change with a focus on four case studies, which are further explored in a separate report

Supporting mental health, wellbeing and study skills in Higher Education:an online intervention system

Abstract Background Dealing with psychological and study skill difficulties can present a challenge for both Higher Education (HE) students, who suffer from them, but also for HE Institutions and their support services. Alternative means of support, such as online interventions, have been identified as cost-effective and efficient ways to provide inclusive support to HE students, removing many of the barriers to help-seeking as well as promoting mental health and wellbeing. Case presentation The current case study initially outlines the rigorous approach in the development of one such online intervention system, MePlusMe. It further highlights key features that constitute innovative delivery of evidence-based psychological and educational practice in the areas of mental health, promotion of wellbeing, support of mood and everyday functioning, and study-skills enhancement. Conclusions This case study aims to present the innovative features of MePlusMe in relation to current needs and evidence-basis. Finally, it presents future directions in the evaluation, assessment, and evidence of the fitness-for-purpose process

Destructive fishing : an expert‐driven definition and exploration of this quasi‐concept

Numerous policy and international frameworks consider that “destructive fishing” hampers efforts to reach sustainability goals. Though ubiquitous, “destructive fishing” is undefined and therefore currently immeasurable. Here we propose a definition developed through expert consultation: “Destructive fishing is any fishing practice that causes irrecoverable habitat degradation, or which causes significant adverse environmental impacts, results in long-term declines in target or nontarget species beyond biologically safe limits and has negative livelihood impacts.” We show strong stakeholder support for a definition, consensus on many biological and ecological dimensions, and no clustering of respondents from different sectors. Our consensus definition is a significant step toward defining sustainable fisheries goals and will help interpret and implement global political commitments which utilize the term “destructive fishing.” Our definition and results will help reinforce the Food and Agricultural Organization's Code of Conduct and meaningfully support member countries to prohibit destructive fishing practices

PANC Study (Pancreatitis: A National Cohort Study): national cohort study examining the first 30 days from presentation of acute pancreatitis in the UK

Abstract Background Acute pancreatitis is a common, yet complex, emergency surgical presentation. Multiple guidelines exist and management can vary significantly. The aim of this first UK, multicentre, prospective cohort study was to assess the variation in management of acute pancreatitis to guide resource planning and optimize treatment. Methods All patients aged greater than or equal to 18 years presenting with acute pancreatitis, as per the Atlanta criteria, from March to April 2021 were eligible for inclusion and followed up for 30 days. Anonymized data were uploaded to a secure electronic database in line with local governance approvals. Results A total of 113 hospitals contributed data on 2580 patients, with an equal sex distribution and a mean age of 57 years. The aetiology was gallstones in 50.6 per cent, with idiopathic the next most common (22.4 per cent). In addition to the 7.6 per cent with a diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis, 20.1 per cent of patients had a previous episode of acute pancreatitis. One in 20 patients were classed as having severe pancreatitis, as per the Atlanta criteria. The overall mortality rate was 2.3 per cent at 30 days, but rose to one in three in the severe group. Predictors of death included male sex, increased age, and frailty; previous acute pancreatitis and gallstones as aetiologies were protective. Smoking status and body mass index did not affect death. Conclusion Most patients presenting with acute pancreatitis have a mild, self-limiting disease. Rates of patients with idiopathic pancreatitis are high. Recurrent attacks of pancreatitis are common, but are likely to have reduced risk of death on subsequent admissions. </jats:sec

Case studies of community resilience to climate change

The concept of community resilience to climate change in the UK has a diverse range of meanings and associated activities. This report presents four case studies of actions at the local level designed to improve resilience of communities to some aspect of climate change. They have been examined using a frame of community resilience to climate change with a focus on capacities, community engagement and governance. It is supplementary to Community resilience to climate change: an evidence review , published by JRF, which draws on the case studies for illustrative examples

Investigation of Copy Number Variation in South African Patients with Congenital Heart Defects

Congenital heart disease (CHD) is a leading non-infectious cause of pediatric morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although the etiology of CHD is poorly understood, genetic factors including copy number variants (CNVs) contribute to the risk of CHD in individuals of European ancestry. The presence of rare CNVs in African CHD populations is unknown. This study aimed to identify pathogenic and likely pathogenic CNVs in South African patients with CHD. METHODS: Genotyping was performed on 90 patients with nonsyndromic CHD using the Affymetrix CytoScan HD platform. These data were used to identify large, rare CNVs in known CHD-associated genes and candidate genes. RESULTS: We identified eight CNVs overlapping known CHD-associated genes (GATA4, CRKL, TBX1, FLT4, B3GAT3, NSD1) in six patients. The analysis also revealed CNVs encompassing five candidate genes likely to play a role in the development of CHD (DGCR8, KDM2A, JARID2, FSTL1, CYFIP1) in five patients. One patient was found to have 47, XXY karyotype. We report a total discovery yield of 6.7%, with 5.6% of the cohort carrying pathogenic or likely pathogenic CNVs expected to cause the observed phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we show that chromosomal microarray is an effective technique for identifying CNVs in African patients diagnosed with CHD and have demonstrated results similar to previous CHD genetic studies in Europeans. Novel potential CHD genes were also identified, indicating the value of genetic studies of CHD in ancestrally diverse populations

PROTEA, A Southern African Multicenter Congenital Heart Disease Registry and Biorepository: Rationale, Design, and Initial Results

Objectives: The PartneRships in cOngeniTal hEart disease (PROTEA) project aims to establish a densely phenotyped and genotyped Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) cohort for southern Africa. This will facilitate research into the epidemiology and genetic determinants of CHD in the region. This paper introduces the PROTEA project, characterizes its initial cohort, from the Western Cape Province of South Africa, and compares the proportion or “cohort-prevalences” of CHD-subtypes with international findings.Methods: PROTEA is a prospective multicenter CHD registry and biorepository. The initial cohort was recruited from seven hospitals in the Western Cape Province of South Africa from 1 April 2017 to 31 March 2019. All patients with structural CHD were eligible for inclusion. Descriptive data for the preliminary cohort are presented. In addition, cohort-prevalences (i.e., the proportion of patients within the cohort with a specific CHD-subtype) of 26 CHD-subtypes in PROTEA's pediatric cohort were compared with the cohort-prevalences of CHD-subtypes in two global birth-prevalence studies.Results: The study enrolled 1,473 participants over 2 years, median age was 1.9 (IQR 0.4–7.1) years. Predominant subtypes included ventricular septal defect (VSD) (339, 20%), atrial septal defect (ASD) (174, 11%), patent ductus arteriosus (185, 11%), atrioventricular septal defect (AVSD) (124, 7%), and tetralogy of Fallot (121, 7%). VSDs were 1.8 (95% CI, 1.6–2.0) times and ASDs 1.4 (95% CI, 1.2–1.6) times more common in global prevalence estimates than in PROTEA's pediatric cohort. AVSDs were 2.1 (95% CI, 1.7–2.5) times more common in PROTEA and pulmonary stenosis and double outlet right ventricle were also significantly more common compared to global estimates. Median maternal age at delivery was 28 (IQR 23–34) years. Eighty-two percent (347/425) of mothers used no pre-conception supplementation and 42% (105/250) used no first trimester supplements.Conclusions: The cohort-prevalence of certain mild CHD subtypes is lower than for international estimates and the cohort-prevalence of certain severe subtypes is higher. PROTEA is not a prevalence study, and these inconsistencies are unlikely the result of true differences in prevalence. However, these findings may indicate under-diagnosis of mild to moderate CHD and differences in CHD management and outcomes. This reemphasizes the need for robust CHD epidemiological research in the region