Multi-Agent Simulations to Explore Rules for Rural Credit in a Highland Farming Community of Northern Thailand

International audienceMulti-agent systems (MAS) open new modelling and analysis perspectives in ecological and social sciences. An original characteristic of the Companion Modelling (ComMod) approach adopted in this case study is the co-construction and use of a MAS model with and for local stakeholders such as farmers and local administrators. Alternating iteratively field and modelling activities, this approach facilitates collective learning among local stakeholders and between them and the researchers. Combining the use of MAS models with Role-Playing Games (RPG), the described experiment aimed to facilitate collective decision-making in a socially heterogeneous community of small farmers in mountainous northern Thailand about the local rules for the allocation of rural credit to allow a more equitable and extensive process of expansion of non-erosive perennial crops in a watershed prone to erosion. This paper presents the MAS model and the results of a series of simulations exploring the ecological, social and economic effects of various rules for formal and informal credit suggested by the villagers-participants. Six scenarios considered as pertinent to further explore the participants' suggestions were defined based on different combinations among the following three variables: (i) Duration for the reimbursement of loans, (ii) Mode of allocation of formal credit among three different types of farms, (iii) Configuration of networks of acquaintances for access to informal credit. Drawing on this case study, we first elaborate on the potential of bottom-up models such as MAS to analyze the functioning of agricultural systems, in particular farm differentiation and rural credit dynamics. We highlight the ability of MAS to deal with interactions between social and ecological dynamics and to take into account social interactions, in particular the concept of social capital which is a determining factor when dealing with sustainability issues. The second question addressed in this paper deals with the potential and limits of MAS models to support a bottom-up (or participatory) modelling approach. This experiment suggests that the usefulness of models relies much more on the modelling process than on the model itself, because a model is usually useless if it is misunderstood by its potential users, or if it does not respond to their current preoccupations. The intuitive representation of real systems provided by MAS and their high flexibility are the two underlined characteristics favouring their appropriation by local stakeholders

Apports et limites de la modélisation d'accompagnement pour une gestion concertée et décentralisée des ressources en Thaïlande

The potential impact of the process of decentralisation of renewable resource management in Thailand is limited by a weak dialogue between communities and administrative organizations. Based on a case study from the mountainous northern region, this article explores the suitability and limits of the companion modelling approach (ComMod) to facilitate collective and decentralised resource management. This experiment combining roleplaying games and multi-agent simulations stimulated a process of collective learning and negotiation among the various members of a rural community, allowing them to identify themselves their problems, to understand, the issues at stake and to suggest collective solutions integrating their various interests. But efforts are still needed to make higher institutional levels take into account the communities' suggestions.L'impact potentiel de la décentralisation de la gestion des ressources renouvelables en Thaïlande est limité par le manque de dialogue entre les communautés et l'administration. A partir d'une étude de cas dans le nord montagnard, cet article explore les apports et voies d'amélioration de la modélisation d'accompagnement (ComMod) pour favoriser une gestion concertée et décentralisée des ressources. Cette expérience combinant jeux de rôles et simulations multi-agents a facilité un processus d'apprentissage collectif et de négociation entre les membres différenciés d'une communauté rurale, leur permettant d'identifier eux-mêmes leurs problèmes, d'en comprendre les enjeux et de proposer collectivement des solutions tenant compte des divers intérêts en présence. Mais des efforts restent à faire pour que ces propositions soient prises en compte aux niveaux institutionnels supérieurs

An evolving simulation and gaming process to facilitate adaptive watershed management in mountain northern Thailand

International audienceDecentralization of natural resources management provides an opportunity for communities to increase their participation in related decision-making. Research should propose adapted methodologies enabling the numerous local stakeholders of these complex socio-ecological settings to define themselves their problems and to identify agreed-upon solutions. In the research presented in this paper, a Companion Modelling (ComMod) approach combining Role-Playing Games (RPG) and Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) has been conducted in a highland community of Northern Thailand to support collective learning for adaptive land management. A representation of the situation was collectively built and used with local stakeholders as a platform to explore future scenarios. The results of this experiment highlight the need for adaptive and continuously evolving models because learning is evolving by its nature. The initial objective of this ComMod experiment was to address the problem of soil erosion. The participants identified the expansion of perennial crops as a promising solution and these discussions raised in turn a new problem related to unequal ability of villagers to invest in such crops. The researchers flexibly adapted their tools to the new emerging question. After an evaluation of the learning effects of this experiment, this article identifies two main factors that contributed to the success of this learning process : an increased participation of the local stakeholders, and the flexibility of the modelling process. The main suggestion of improvement is a stronger linkage with organizations at a higher institutional level to ensure concrete and sustainable impacts for the communities

FLORES: Helping People to Realize Sustainable Futures

People usually know how they want their situation to change to secure a better future, but they do not always know how to change their situation. Initiatives intended to secure a better future do not always work as intended, and may have unintended side effects. Computer models can help advocates explore consequences of proposed initiatives, so they can make informed selections of alternatives, secure in the knowledge that consequences have been thoroughly investigated. By encouraging people to explore scenarios, models empower people to be more innovative and less dependent on technocrats. New software solves technical limitations, but the real issue is not software, but rather the provision of a supportive framework within which people can express and experiment with ideas. FLORES, the Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System, provides such a framework to stimulate interdisciplinary collaboration between researchers, practitioners and clients. A recent prototype demonstrated the feasibility of FLORES. However, FLORES is not about software; it is about providing the means to explore the consequences of alternative scenarios. Ultimately, FLORES is not a physical package, but a user group and the interactions they have amongst themselves, and with the people involved in policy-making. Fostering this emerging network through workshops and technical support will enhance FLORES by offering a better understanding of the concept, and by allowing more people, especially those from developing countries, to influence the development of FLORES and the issues that can be explored within it

Optical Data Storage in Photosensitive Glasses and Spin State Transition Compounds

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