Methods of Multivariable Earthquake Precursor Analysis and a Proposed Prototype Earthquake Early Warning System

Significant advances are being made in earthquake prediction theory; however, a reliable method for forecasting the occurrence of earthquakes from space and/or ground based technologies remains limited to no more than a few minutes before the event happens. Several claims of earthquake precursors have been put forward, such as ionospheric changes, electromagnetic effects, and ground heating, though the science behind these is far from complete and the successful application of these precursors is highly regionally variable. Existing and planned dedicated space missions for monitoring earthquake precursors are insufficient for resolving the precursor issue. Their performance does not satisfy the requirements of an earthquake early warning system in terms of spatial and temporal coverage. To achieve statistically significant validation of precursors for early warning delivery, precursor data must be obtained from simultaneous repeated monitoring of several precursors in focus regions over a long period of time and then integrated and processed. Data sources include historical data, data from ground-based units, airborne systems, and space-based systems. This paper describes methods of systematic evaluation of regionally specific, multivariable precursor data needed for the identification of the expected time, magnitude and the position of the epicentre. This data set forms the basis for a proposed operational early warning system developed at the International Space University and which is built in partnership with local and national governments as well as international organizations

Improved earthquake response via simulation and integrated space- and ground-based technologies: the TREMOR proposal

Earthquakes occurring around the world each year cause thousands of deaths, millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure, and incalculable human suffering. In recent years, satellite technology has been a significant boon to response efforts following an earthquake and its after-effects by providing mobile communications between response teams and remote sensing of damaged areas to disaster management organizations. In 2007, an international team of students and professionals assembled during the International Space University’s Summer Session Program in Beijing, China to examine how satellite and ground-based technology could be better integrated to provide an optimised response in the event of an earthquake. The resulting Technology Resources for Earthquake MOnitoring and Response (TREMOR) proposal describes an integrative prototype response system that will implement mobile satellite communication hubs providing telephone and data links between response teams, onsite telemedicine consultation for emergency first-responders, and satellite navigation systems that will locate and track emergency vehicles and guide search-and-rescue crews. A prototype earthquake simulation system is also proposed, integrating historical data, earthquake precursor data, and local geomatics and infrastructure information to predict the damage that could occur in the event of an earthquake. The backbone of these proposals is a comprehensive education and training program to help individuals, communities and governments prepare in advance. The TREMOR team recommends the coordination of these efforts through a centralised, non-governmental organization

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life, human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources for Earthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over the course of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the form of a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capability to manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves the existing knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system will at first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursor monitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarning system. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine, integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing and new proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, fault maps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the main components of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precision in the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It is based in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-event damage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of a geographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs to provide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, such as the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life, human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources for Earthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over the course of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the form of a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capability to manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves the existing knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system will at first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursor monitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarning system. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine, integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing and new proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, fault maps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the main components of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precision in the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It is based in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-event damage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of a geographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs to provide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, such as the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included.Postprint (published version

Methods of Multivariable Earthquake Precursor Analysis and a Proposed Prototype Earthquake Early Warning System

Significant advances are being made in earthquake prediction theory; however, a reliable method for forecasting the occurrence of earthquakes from space and/or ground based technologies remains limited to no more than a few minutes before the event happens. Several claims of earthquake precursors have been put forward, such as ionospheric changes, electromagnetic effects, and ground heating, though the science behind these is far from complete and the successful application of these precursors is highly regionally variable. Existing and planned dedicated space missions for monitoring earthquake precursors are insufficient for resolving the precursor issue. Their performance does not satisfy the requirements of an earthquake early warning system in terms of spatial and temporal coverage. To achieve statistically significant validation of precursors for early warning delivery, precursor data must be obtained from simultaneous repeated monitoring of several precursors in focus regions over a long period of time and then integrated and processed. Data sources include historical data, data from ground-based units, airborne systems, and space-based systems. This paper describes methods of systematic evaluation of regionally specific, multivariable precursor data needed for the identification of the expected time, magnitude and the position of the epicentre. This data set forms the basis for a proposed operational early warning system developed at the International Space University and which is built in partnership with local and national governments as well as international organizations

Methods of Multivariable Earthquake Precursor Analysis and a Proposed Prototype Earthquake Early Warning System

Significant advances are being made in earthquake prediction theory; however, a reliable method for forecasting the occurrence of earthquakes from space and/or ground based technologies remains limited to no more than a few minutes before the event happens. Several claims of earthquake precursors have been put forward, such as ionospheric changes, electromagnetic effects, and ground heating, though the science behind these is far from complete and the successful application of these precursors is highly regionally variable. Existing and planned dedicated space missions for monitoring earthquake precursors are insufficient for resolving the precursor issue. Their performance does not satisfy the requirements of an earthquake early warning system in terms of spatial and temporal coverage. To achieve statistically significant validation of precursors for early warning delivery, precursor data must be obtained from simultaneous repeated monitoring of several precursors in focus regions over a long period of time and then integrated and processed. Data sources include historical data, data from ground-based units, airborne systems, and space-based systems. This paper describes methods of systematic evaluation of regionally specific, multivariable precursor data needed for the identification of the expected time, magnitude and the position of the epicentre. This data set forms the basis for a proposed operational early warning system developed at the International Space University and which is built in partnership with local and national governments as well as international organizations

Improved earthquake response via simulation and integrated space- and ground-based technologies: the TREMOR proposal

Earthquakes occurring around the world each year cause thousands of deaths, millions of dollars in damage to infrastructure, and incalculable human suffering. In recent years, satellite technology has been a significant boon to response efforts following an earthquake and its after-effects by providing mobile communications between response teams and remote sensing of damaged areas to disaster management organizations. In 2007, an international team of students and professionals assembled during the International Space University’s Summer Session Program in Beijing, China to examine how satellite and ground-based technology could be better integrated to provide an optimised response in the event of an earthquake. The resulting Technology Resources for Earthquake MOnitoring and Response (TREMOR) proposal describes an integrative prototype response system that will implement mobile satellite communication hubs providing telephone and data links between response teams, onsite telemedicine consultation for emergency first-responders, and satellite navigation systems that will locate and track emergency vehicles and guide search-and-rescue crews. A prototype earthquake simulation system is also proposed, integrating historical data, earthquake precursor data, and local geomatics and infrastructure information to predict the damage that could occur in the event of an earthquake. The backbone of these proposals is a comprehensive education and training program to help individuals, communities and governments prepare in advance. The TREMOR team recommends the coordination of these efforts through a centralised, non-governmental organization

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life, human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources for Earthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over the course of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the form of a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capability to manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves the existing knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system will at first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursor monitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarning system. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine, integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing and new proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, fault maps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the main components of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precision in the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It is based in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-event damage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of a geographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs to provide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, such as the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life, human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources for Earthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over the course of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the form of a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capability to manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves the existing knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system will at first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursor monitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarning system. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine, integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing and new proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, fault maps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the main components of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precision in the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It is based in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-event damage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of a geographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs to provide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, such as the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included