Modelling the Seasonal Epidemics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children

BACKGROUND Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of paediatric morbidity. Mathematical models can be used to characterise annual RSV seasonal epidemics and are a valuable tool to assess the impact of future vaccines. OBJECTIVES Construct a mathematical model of seasonal epidemics of RSV and by fitting to a population-level RSV dataset, obtain a better understanding of RSV transmission dynamics. METHODS We obtained an extensive dataset of weekly RSV testing data in children aged less than 2 years, 2000-2005, for a birth cohort of 245,249 children through linkage of laboratory and birth record datasets. We constructed a seasonally forced compartmental age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible (SEIRS) mathematical model to fit to the seasonal curves of positive RSV detections using the Nelder-Mead method. RESULTS From 15,830 specimens, 3,394 were positive for RSV. RSV detections exhibited a distinct biennial seasonal pattern with alternating sized peaks in winter months. Our SEIRS model accurately mimicked the observed data with alternating sized peaks using disease parameter values that remained constant across the 6 years of data. Variations in the duration of immunity and recovery periods were explored. The best fit to the data minimising the residual sum of errors was a model using estimates based on previous models in the literature for the infectious period and a slightly lower estimate for the immunity period. CONCLUSIONS Our age-structured model based on routinely collected population laboratory data accurately captures the observed seasonal epidemic curves. The compartmental SEIRS model, based on several assumptions, now provides a validated base model. Ranges for the disease parameters in the model that could replicate the patterns in the data were identified. Areas for future model developments include fitting climatic variables to the seasonal parameter, allowing parameters to vary according to age and implementing a newborn vaccination program to predict the effect on RSV incidence.HCM is funded by National Health and Medical Research Council Fellowship #1034254

Schools are open during the coronavirus outbreak but should I voluntarily keep my kids home anyway, if I can? We asked 5 experts

We asked five experts to answer the question: schools are staying open but should I voluntarily keep my kids home anyway, if I can

Is the NICE traffic light system fit-for-purpose for children presenting with undifferentiated acute illness in primary care?

Background The National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE) traffic light system uses children’s symptoms and signs to categorise acute infections into red, amber and green. To our knowledge, no study has described the proportion of children with acute undifferentiated illness who fall into these categories in primary care, which is important since red and amber children are considered at higher risk of serious illness requiring urgent secondary care assessment. Aim To estimate the proportion of acutely unwell children presenting to primary care classified by the NICE traffic light system as red, amber or green, and to describe their initial management. Design and setting Secondary analysis of the Diagnosis of Urinary Tract infection in Young children prospective cohort study. Method 6797 children under 5 years presenting to 225 general practices with acute undifferentiated illness were retrospectively mapped to the NICE traffic light system by a panel of general practitioners. Results 6406 (94%) children were classified as NICE red (32%) or amber (62%) with 1.6% red and 0.3%, respectively, referred the same day for hospital assessment; and 46% and 31%, respectively, treated with antibiotics. The remaining 385 (6%) were classified green, with none referred and 27% treated with antibiotics. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses. Conclusion The majority of children presenting to UK primary care with acute undifferentiated illness meet red or amber NICE traffic light criteria,with only 6% classified as low risk, making it unfit for use in general practice. Research is urgently needed to establish as triage system suitable for general practice

Coronavax : preparing community and government for COVID-19 vaccination:: a research protocol for a mixed methods social research project

Introduction Ahead of the implementation of a COVID-19 vaccination programme, the interdisciplinary Coronavax research team developed a multicomponent mixed methods project to support successful roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine in Western Australia. This project seeks to analyse community attitudes about COVID-19 vaccination, vaccine access and information needs. We also study how government incorporates research findings into the vaccination programme. Methods and analysis The Coronavax protocol employs an analytical social media study, and a qualitative study using in-depth interviews with purposively selected community groups. Participant groups currently include healthcare workers, aged care workers, first responders, adults aged 65+ years, adults aged 30-64 years, young adults aged 18-29 years, education workers, parents/guardians of infants and young children (&lt;5 years), parents/guardians of children aged 5-18 years with comorbidities and parents/guardians who are hesitant about routine childhood vaccines. The project also includes two studies that track how Australian state and Commonwealth (federal) governments use the study findings. These are functional dialogues (translation and discussion exercises that are recorded and analysed) and evidence mapping of networks within government (which track how study findings are used). Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval has been granted by the Child and Adolescent Health Service Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) and the University of Western Australia HREC. Study findings will be disseminated by a series of journal articles, reports to funders and stakeholders, and invited and peer-reviewed presentations.</p

Childhood pneumonia and meningitis in the Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea in the era of conjugate vaccines: study methods and challenges

Background: Pneumonia and meningitis are common causes of severe childhood illness in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The etiology of both clinical conditions in PNG has not been recently assessed. Changes in lifestyle, provision and access to healthcare, antimicrobial utilization and resistance, and the national childhood vaccination schedule necessitate reassessment. Methods: A prospective case-control study was undertaken, enrolling children <5 years of age to determine the contemporary etiology of clinically defined moderate or severe pneumonia or suspected meningitis. Cases were identified following presentation for inpatient or outpatient care in Goroka town, the major population centre in the Eastern Highlands Province. Following enrolment, routine diagnostic specimens including blood, nasopharyngeal swabs, urine and (if required) cerebrospinal fluid, were obtained. Cases residing within one hour’s drive of Goroka were followed up, and recruitment of healthy contemporaneous controls was undertaken in the cases’ communities. Results: 998 cases and 978 controls were enrolled over 3 years. This included 784 cases (78.6%) with moderate pneumonia, 187 (18.7%) with severe pneumonia and 75 (7.5%) with suspected meningitis, of whom 48 (4.8%) had concurrent pneumonia. The median age of cases was 7.8 months (Interquartile range [IQR] 3.9–14.3), significantly lower than community controls, which was 20.8 months (IQR 8.2–36.4). Half the cases were admitted to hospital (500/998; 50.1%). Recruitment of cases and controls and successful collection of diagnostic specimens improved throughout the study, with blood volume increasing and rates of blood culture contamination decreasing. The overall case fatality rate was 18/998 (1.8%). Of cases eligible for follow-up, outcome data was available from 76.7%. Low but increasing coverage of Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccines on the national schedule was observed during the study period: three dose DTPw-HepB-Hib coverage in children >3 months increased from 14.9 to 43.0% and 29.0 to 47.7% in cases and controls (both p < 0.001). Despite inclusion in the national immunization program in 2014, 2015 PCV13 three-dose coverage in cases and controls >3 months was only 4.0 and 6.5%. Conclusions: Recruitment of large numbers of pediatric pneumonia and meningitis cases and community controls in a third-world setting presents unique challenges. Successful enrolment of 998 cases and 978 controls with comprehensive clinical data, biological specimens and follow up was achieved. Increased vaccine coverage remains an ongoing health priority

Inequity of antenatal influenza and pertussis vaccine coverage in Australia: the Links2HealthierBubs record linkage cohort study, 2012–2017

Background: Pregnancy and early infancy are increased risk periods for severe adverse effects of respiratory infections. Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander (respectfully referred to as First Nations) women and children in Australia bear a disproportionately higher burden of respiratory diseases compared to non-Indigenous women and infants. Influenza vaccines and whooping cough (pertussis) vaccines are recommended and free in every Australian pregnancy to combat these infections. We aimed to assess the equity of influenza and/or pertussis vaccination in pregnancy for three priority groups in Australia: First Nations women; women from culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) backgrounds; and women living in remote areas or socio-economic disadvantage. Methods: We conducted individual record linkage of Perinatal Data Collections with immunisation registers/databases between 2012 and 2017. Analysis included generalised linear mixed model, log-binomial regression with a random intercept for the unique maternal identifier to account for clustering, presented as prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% compatibility intervals (95%CI). Results: There were 445,590 individual women in the final cohort. Compared with other Australian women (n = 322,848), First Nations women (n = 29,181) were less likely to have received both recommended antenatal vaccines (PR 0.69, 95% CI 0.67–0.71) whereas women from CALD backgrounds (n = 93,561) were more likely to have (PR 1.16, 95% CI 1.10–1.13). Women living in remote areas were less likely to have received both vaccines (PR 0.75, 95% CI 0.72–0.78), and women living in the highest areas of advantage were more likely to have received both vaccines (PR 1.44, 95% CI 1.40–1.48). Conclusions: Compared to other groups, First Nations Australian families, those living in remote areas and/or families from lower socio-economic backgrounds did not receive recommended vaccinations during pregnancy that are the benchmark of equitable healthcare. Addressing these barriers must remain a core priority for Australian health care systems and vaccine providers. An extension of this cohort is necessary to reassess these study findings

A prospective cohort study comparing the reactogenicity of trivalent influenza vaccine in pregnant and non-pregnant women

Background: Influenza vaccination during pregnancy can prevent serious illness in expectant mothers and provide protection to newborns; however, historically uptake has been limited due to a number of factors, including safety concerns. Symptomatic complaints are common during pregnancy and may be mistakenly associated with reactions to trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV). To investigate this, we compared post-vaccination events self-reported by pregnant women to events reported by non-pregnant women receiving TIV. Methods: A prospective cohort of 1,086 pregnant women and 314 non-pregnant female healthcare workers (HCWs) who received TIV between March-May 2014 were followed-up seven days post-vaccination to assess local and systemic adverse events following immunisation (AEFIs). Women were surveyed by text message regarding perceived reactions to TIV. Those reporting an AEFI completed an interview by telephone or mobile phone to ascertain details. Logistic regression models adjusting for age and residence were used to compare reactions reported by pregnant women and non-pregnant HCWs. Results: Similar proportions of pregnant women and non-pregnant, female HCWs reported ≥1 reaction following vaccination with TIV (13.0% and 17.3%, respectively; OR = 1.2 [95% CI: 0.8-1.8]). Non-pregnant, female HCWs were more likely to report fever or headache compared to pregnant women (OR: 4.6 [95% CI 2.1-10.3] and OR: 2.2 [95% CI 1.0-4.6], respectively). No other significant differences in reported symptoms were observed. No serious vaccine-associated adverse events were reported, and less than 2% of each group sought medical advice for a reaction. Conclusions: We found no evidence suggesting pregnant women are more likely to report adverse events following influenza vaccination when compared to non-pregnant female HCWs of similar age, and in some cases, pregnant women reported significantly fewer adverse events. These results further support the safety of TIV administered in pregnant women

Multilocus Sequence Typing Reveals Extensive Genetic Diversity of the Emerging Fungal Pathogen Scedosporium aurantiacum

Scedosporium spp. are the second most prevalent filamentous fungi after Aspergillus spp. recovered from cystic fibrosis (CF) patients in various regions of the world. Although invasive infection is uncommon prior to lung transplantation, fungal colonization may be a risk factor for invasive disease with attendant high mortality post-transplantation. Abundant in the environment, Scedosporium aurantiacum has emerged as an important fungal pathogen in a range of clinical settings. To investigate the population genetic structure of S. aurantiacum, a MultiLocus Sequence Typing (MLST) scheme was developed, screening 24 genetic loci for polymorphisms on a tester strain set. The six most polymorphic loci were selected to form the S. aurantiacum MLST scheme: actin (ACT), calmodulin (CAL), elongation factor-1α (EF1α), RNA polymerase subunit II (RPB2), manganese superoxide dismutase (SOD2), and β-tubulin (TUB). Among 188 global clinical, veterinary, and environmental strains, 5 to 18 variable sites per locus were revealed, resulting in 8 to 23 alleles per locus. MLST analysis observed a markedly high genetic diversity, reflected by 159 unique sequence types. Network analysis revealed a separation between Australian and non-Australian strains. Phylogenetic analysis showed two major clusters, indicating correlation with geographic origin. Linkage disequilibrium analysis revealed evidence of recombination. There was no clustering according to the source of the strains: clinical, veterinary, or environmental. The high diversity, especially amongst the Australian strains, suggests that S. aurantiacum may have originated within the Australian continent and was subsequently dispersed to other regions, as shown by the close phylogenetic relationships between some of the Australian sequence types and those found in other parts of the world. The MLST data are accessible at http://mlst.mycologylab.org. This is a joined publication of the ISHAM/ECMM working groups on “Scedosporium/Pseudallescheria Infections” and “Fungal Respiratory Infections in Cystic Fibrosis”.Peer Reviewe