US primary care in 2029: A Delphi survey on the impact of machine learning

ObjectiveTo solicit leading health informaticians' predictions about the impact of AI/ML on primary care in the US in 2029.DesignA three-round online modified Delphi poll.ParticipantsTwenty-nine leading health informaticians.MethodsIn September 2019, health informatics experts were selected by the research team, and invited to participate the Delphi poll. Participation in each round was anonymous, and panelists were given between 4-8 weeks to respond to each round. In Round 1 open-ended questions solicited forecasts on the impact of AI/ML on: (1) patient care, (2) access to care, (3) the primary care workforce, (4) technological breakthroughs, and (5) the long-future for primary care physicians. Responses were coded to produce itemized statements. In Round 2, participants were invited to rate their agreement with each item along 7-point Likert scales. Responses were analyzed for consensus which was set at a predetermined interquartile range of ≤ 1. In Round 3 items that did not reach consensus were redistributed.ResultsA total of 16 experts participated in Round 1 (16/29, 55%). Of these experts 13/16 (response rate, 81%), and 13/13 (response rate, 100%), responded to Rounds 2 and 3, respectively. As a result of developments in AI/ML by 2029 experts anticipated workplace changes including incursions into the disintermediation of physician expertise, and increased AI/ML training requirements for medical students. Informaticians also forecast that by 2029 AI/ML will increase diagnostic accuracy especially among those with limited access to experts, minorities and those with rare diseases. Expert panelists also predicted that AI/ML-tools would improve access to expert doctor knowledge.ConclusionsThis study presents timely information on informaticians' consensus views about the impact of AI/ML on US primary care in 2029. Preparation for the near-future of primary care will require improved levels of digital health literacy among patients and physicians

Evolutionary prisoner's dilemma game on a square lattice

A simplified prisoner's game is studied on a square lattice when the players interacting with their neighbors can follow only two strategies: to cooperate (C) or to defect (D) unconditionally. The players updated in a random sequence have a chance to adopt one of the neighboring strategies with a probability depending on the payoff difference. Using Monte Carlo simulations and dynamical cluster techniques we study the density $c$ of cooperators in the stationary state. This system exhibits a continuous transition between the two absorbing state when varying the value of temptation to defect. In the limits $c \to 0$ and 1 we have observed critical transitions belonging to the universality class of directed percolation.Comment: 6 pages including 6 figure

Sharing Clinical Notes and Electronic Health Records With People Affected by Mental Health Conditions: Scoping Review

Background: Electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly implemented internationally, whereas digital sharing of EHRs with service users (SUs) is a relatively new practice. Studies of patient-accessible EHRs (PAEHRs)—often referred to as open notes—have revealed promising results within general medicine settings. However, studies carried out in mental health care (MHC) settings highlight several ethical and practical challenges that require further exploration. Objective: This scoping review aims to map available evidence on PAEHRs in MHC. We seek to relate findings with research from other health contexts, to compare different stakeholders’ perspectives, expectations, actual experiences with PAEHRs, and identify potential research gaps. Methods: A systematic scoping review was performed using 6 electronic databases. Studies that focused on the digital sharing of clinical notes or EHRs with people affected by mental health conditions up to September 2021 were included. The Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool was used to assess the quality of the studies. The PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) Extension for Scoping Reviews guided narrative synthesis and reporting of findings. Results: Of the 1034 papers screened, 31 were included in this review. The studies used mostly qualitative methods or surveys and were predominantly published after 2018 in the United States. PAEHRs were examined in outpatient (n=29) and inpatient settings (n=11), and a third of all research was conducted in Veterans Affairs Mental Health. Narrative synthesis allowed the integration of findings according to the different stakeholders. First, SUs reported mainly positive experiences with PAEHRs, such as increased trust in their clinician, health literacy, and empowerment. Negative experiences were related to inaccurate notes, disrespectful language use, or uncovering of undiscussed diagnoses. Second, for health care professionals, concerns outweigh the benefits of sharing EHRs, including an increased clinical burden owing to more documentation efforts and possible harm triggered by reading the notes. Third, care partners gained a better understanding of their family members’ mental problems and were able to better support them when they had access to their EHR. Finally, policy stakeholders and experts addressed ethical challenges and recommended the development of guidelines and trainings to better prepare both clinicians and SUs on how to write and read notes. Conclusions: PAEHRs in MHC may strengthen user involvement, patients’ autonomy, and shift medical treatment to a coproduced process. Acceptance issues among health care professionals align with the findings from general health settings. However, the corpus of evidence on digital sharing of EHRs with people affected by mental health conditions is limited. Above all, further research is needed to examine the clinical effectiveness, efficiency, and implementation of this sociotechnical intervention

Series expansions of the percolation probability on the directed triangular lattice

We have derived long series expansions of the percolation probability for site, bond and site-bond percolation on the directed triangular lattice. For the bond problem we have extended the series from order 12 to 51 and for the site problem from order 12 to 35. For the site-bond problem, which has not been studied before, we have derived the series to order 32. Our estimates of the critical exponent $\beta$ are in full agreement with results for similar problems on the square lattice, confirming expectations of universality. For the critical probability and exponent we find in the site case: $q_c = 0.4043528 \pm 0.0000010$ and $\beta = 0.27645 \pm 0.00010$; in the bond case: $q_c = 0.52198\pm 0.00001$ and $\beta = 0.2769\pm 0.0010$; and in the site-bond case: $q_c = 0.264173 \pm 0.000003$ and $\beta = 0.2766 \pm 0.0003$. In addition we have obtained accurate estimates for the critical amplitudes. In all cases we find that the leading correction to scaling term is analytic, i.e., the confluent exponent $\Delta = 1$.Comment: 26 pages, LaTeX. To appear in J. Phys.

Vortex dynamics in a three-state model under cyclic dominance

The evolution of domain structure is investigated in a two-dimensional voter model with three states under cyclic dominance. The study focus on the dynamics of vortices, defined by the points where three states (domains) meet. We can distinguish vortices and antivortices which walk randomly and annihilate each other. The domain wall motion can create vortex-antivortex pairs at a rate which is increased by the spiral formation due to the cyclic dominance. This mechanism is contrasted with a branching annihilating random walk (BARW) in a particle antiparticle system with density dependent pair creation rate. Numerical estimates for the critical indices of the vortex density ($\beta=0.29(4)$) and of its fluctuation ($\gamma=0.34(6)$) improve an earlier Monte Carlo study [Tainaka and Itoh, Europhys. Lett. 15, 399 (1991)] of the three-state cyclic voter model in two dimensions.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figures, to appear in PR

Machine Learning in Clinical Psychology and Psychotherapy Education: A Mixed Methods Pilot Survey of Postgraduate Students at a Swiss University

Background: There is increasing use of psychotherapy apps in mental health care.Objective: This mixed methods pilot study aimed to explore postgraduate clinical psychology students' familiarity and formal exposure to topics related to artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) during their studies.Methods: In April-June 2020, we conducted a mixed-methods online survey using a convenience sample of 120 clinical psychology students enrolled in a two-year Masters' program at a Swiss University.Results: In total 37 students responded (response rate: 37/120, 31%). Among respondents, 73% (n = 27) intended to enter a mental health profession, and 97% reported that they had heard of the term “machine learning.” Students estimated 0.52% of their program would be spent on AI/ML education. Around half (46%) reported that they intended to learn about AI/ML as it pertained to mental health care. On 5-point Likert scale, students “moderately agreed” (median = 4) that AI/M should be part of clinical psychology/psychotherapy education. Qualitative analysis of students' comments resulted in four major themes on the impact of AI/ML on mental healthcare: (1) Changes in the quality and understanding of psychotherapy care; (2) Impact on patient-therapist interactions; (3) Impact on the psychotherapy profession; (4) Data management and ethical issues.Conclusions: This pilot study found that postgraduate clinical psychology students held a wide range of opinions but had limited formal education on how AI/ML-enabled tools might impact psychotherapy. The survey raises questions about how curricula could be enhanced to educate clinical psychology/psychotherapy trainees about the scope of AI/ML in mental healthcare.</jats:p

Anomalous Behavior of the Contact Process with Aging

The effect of power-law aging on a contact process is studied by simulation and using a mean-field approach. We find that the system may approach its stationary state in a nontrivial, nonmonotonous way. For the particular value of the aging exponent, $\alpha=1$, we observe a rich set of behaviors: depending on the process parameters, the relaxation to the stationary state proceeds as $1/\ln t$ or via a power law with a nonuniversal exponent. Simulation results suggest that for $0<\alpha<1$, the absorbing-state phase transition is in the universality class of directed percolation.Comment: 4 pages revtex (twocolumn, psfig), 3 figure

Digital mental health: challenges and next steps

Digital innovations in mental health offer great potential, but present unique challenges. Using a consensus development panel approach, an expert, international, cross-disciplinary panel met to provide a framework to conceptualise digital mental health innovations, research into mechanisms and effectiveness and approaches for clinical implementation. Key questions and outputs from the group were agreed by consensus, and are presented and discussed in the text and supported by case examples in an accompanying appendix. A number of key themes emerged. (1) Digital approaches may work best across traditional diagnostic systems: we do not have effective ontologies of mental illness and transdiagnostic/symptom-based approaches may be more fruitful. (2) Approaches in clinical implementation of digital tools/interventions need to be creative and require organisational change: not only do clinicians and patients need training and education to be more confident and skilled in using digital technologies to support shared care decision-making, but traditional roles need to be extended, with clinicians working alongside digital navigators and non-clinicians who are delivering protocolised treatments. (3) Designing appropriate studies to measure the effectiveness of implementation is also key: including digital data raises unique ethical issues, and measurement of potential harms is only just beginning. (4) Accessibility and codesign are needed to ensure innovations are long lasting. (5) Standardised guidelines for reporting would ensure effective synthesis of the evidence to inform clinical implementation. COVID-19 and the transition to virtual consultations have shown us the potential for digital innovations to improve access and quality of care in mental health: now is the ideal time to act

Series expansions of the percolation probability for directed square and honeycomb lattices

We have derived long series expansions of the percolation probability for site and bond percolation on directed square and honeycomb lattices. For the square bond problem we have extended the series from 41 terms to 54, for the square site problem from 16 terms to 37, and for the honeycomb bond problem from 13 terms to 36. Analysis of the series clearly shows that the critical exponent $\beta$ is the same for all the problems confirming expectations of universality. For the critical probability and exponent we find in the square bond case, $q_c = 0.3552994\pm 0.0000010$, $\beta = 0.27643\pm 0.00010$, in the square site case $q_c = 0.294515 \pm 0.000005$, $\beta = 0.2763 \pm 0.0003$, and in the honeycomb bond case $q_c = 0.177143 \pm 0.000002$, $\beta = 0.2763 \pm 0.0002$. In addition we have obtained accurate estimates for the critical amplitudes. In all cases we find that the leading correction to scaling term is analytic, i.e., the confluent exponent $\Delta = 1$.Comment: LaTex with epsf, 26 pages, 2 figures and 2 tables in Postscript format included (uufiled). LaTeX version of tables also included for the benefit of those without access to PS printers (note that the tables should be printed in landscape mode). Accepted by J. Phys.

Thinking like a man? The cultures of science

Culture includes science and science includes culture, but conflicts between the two traditions persist, often seen as clashes between interpretation and knowledge. One way of highlighting this false polarity has been to explore the gendered symbolism of science. Feminism has contributed to science studies and the critical interrogation of knowledge, aware that practical knowledge and scientific understanding have never been synonymous. Persisting notions of an underlying unity to scientific endeavour have often impeded rather than fostered the useful application of knowledge. This has been particularly evident in the recent rise of molecular biology, with its delusory dream of the total conquest of disease. It is equally prominent in evolutionary psychology, with its renewed attempts to depict the fundamental basis of sex differences. Wars over science have continued to intensify over the last decade, even as our knowledge of the political, economic and ideological significance of science funding and research has become ever more apparent