Probabilistic forecasting of heterogeneous consumer transaction-sales time series

We present new Bayesian methodology for consumer sales forecasting. With a focus on multi-step ahead forecasting of daily sales of many supermarket items, we adapt dynamic count mixture models to forecast individual customer transactions, and introduce novel dynamic binary cascade models for predicting counts of items per transaction. These transactions-sales models can incorporate time-varying trend, seasonal, price, promotion, random effects and other outlet-specific predictors for individual items. Sequential Bayesian analysis involves fast, parallel filtering on sets of decoupled items and is adaptable across items that may exhibit widely varying characteristics. A multi-scale approach enables information sharing across items with related patterns over time to improve prediction while maintaining scalability to many items. A motivating case study in many-item, multi-period, multi-step ahead supermarket sales forecasting provides examples that demonstrate improved forecast accuracy in multiple metrics, and illustrates the benefits of full probabilistic models for forecast accuracy evaluation and comparison. Keywords: Bayesian forecasting; decouple/recouple; dynamic binary cascade; forecast calibration; intermittent demand; multi-scale forecasting; predicting rare events; sales per transaction; supermarket sales forecastingComment: 23 pages, 5 figures, 1 tabl

Microvascular resistance predicts myocardial salvage and infarct characteristics in ST-elevation myocardial infarction

<b>Background:</b> The pathophysiology of myocardial injury and repair in patients with ST‐elevation myocardial infarction is incompletely understood. We investigated the relationships among culprit artery microvascular resistance, myocardial salvage, and ventricular function.<p></p> <b>Methods and Results:</b> The index of microvascular resistance (IMR) was measured by means of a pressure‐ and temperature‐sensitive coronary guidewire in 108 patients with ST‐elevation myocardial infarction (83% male) at the end of primary percutaneous coronary intervention. Paired cardiac MRI (cardiac magnetic resonance) scans were performed early (2 days; n=108) and late (3 months; n=96) after myocardial infarction. T2‐weighted‐ and late gadolinium–enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance delineated the ischemic area at risk and infarct size, respectively. Myocardial salvage was calculated by subtracting infarct size from area at risk. Univariable and multivariable models were constructed to determine the impact of IMR on cardiac magnetic resonance–derived surrogate outcomes. The median (interquartile range) IMR was 28 (17–42) mm Hg/s. The median (interquartile range) area at risk was 32% (24%–41%) of left ventricular mass, and the myocardial salvage index was 21% (11%–43%). IMR was a significant multivariable predictor of early myocardial salvage, with a multiplicative effect of 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.82 to 0.92) per 20% increase in IMR; P<0.001. In patients with anterior myocardial infarction, IMR was a multivariable predictor of early and late myocardial salvage, with multiplicative effects of 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.90; P<0.001) and 0.92 (95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.96; P<0.001), respectively. IMR also predicted the presence and extent of microvascular obstruction and myocardial hemorrhage.<p></p> <b>Conclusion:</b> Microvascular resistance measured during primary percutaneous coronary intervention significantly predicts myocardial salvage, infarct characteristics, and left ventricular ejection fraction in patients with ST‐elevation myocardial infarction.<p></p&gt

Longitudinal effect of eteplirsen versus historical control on ambulation in Duchenne muscular dystrophy

To continue evaluation of the long-term efficacy and safety of eteplirsen, a phosphorodiamidate morpholino oligomer designed to skip DMD exon 51 in patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). Three-year progression of eteplirsen-treated patients was compared to matched historical controls (HC). METHODS: Ambulatory DMD patients who were 657 years old and amenable to exon 51 skipping were randomized to eteplirsen (30/50mg/kg) or placebo for 24 weeks. Thereafter, all received eteplirsen on an open-label basis. The primary functional assessment in this study was the 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT). Respiratory muscle function was assessed by pulmonary function testing (PFT). Longitudinal natural history data were used for comparative analysis of 6MWT performance at baseline and months 12, 24, and 36. Patients were matched to the eteplirsen group based on age, corticosteroid use, and genotype. RESULTS: At 36 months, eteplirsen-treated patients (n = 12) demonstrated a statistically significant advantage of 151m (p < 0.01) on 6MWT and experienced a lower incidence of loss of ambulation in comparison to matched HC (n = 13) amenable to exon 51 skipping. PFT results remained relatively stable in eteplirsen-treated patients. Eteplirsen was well tolerated. Analysis of HC confirmed the previously observed change in disease trajectory at age 7 years, and more severe progression was observed in patients with mutations amenable to exon skipping than in those not amenable. The subset of patients amenable to exon 51 skipping showed a more severe disease course than those amenable to any exon skipping. INTERPRETATION: Over 3 years of follow-up, eteplirsen-treated patients showed a slower rate of decline in ambulation assessed by 6MWT compared to untreated matched HC. Ann Neurol 2016;79:257-271

Development of fluorocarbon evaporative cooling recirculators and controls for the ATLAS inner silicon tracker

We report on the development of evaporative fluorocarbon cooling recirculators and their control systems for the ATLAS inner silicon tracker. We have developed a prototype circulator using a dry, hermetic compressor with C/sub 3/F/sup 8/ refrigerant, and have prototyped the remote-control analog pneumatic links for the regulation of coolant mass flows and operating temperatures that will be necessary in the magnetic field and radiation environment around ATLAS. pressure and flow measurement and control use 150+ channels of standard ATLAS LMB ("Local Monitor Board") DAQ and DACs on a multi-drop CAN network administered through a BridgeVIEW user interface. A hardwired thermal interlock system has been developed to cut power to individual silicon modules should their temperatures exceed safe values. Highly satisfactory performance of the circulator under steady state, partial-load and transient conditions was seen, with proportional fluid flow tuned to varying circuit power. Future developments, including a 6 kW demonstrator with ~25 cooling circuits, are outlined

Using outbreak science to strengthen the use of models during epidemics.

Infectious disease modeling has played a prominent role in recent outbreaks, yet integrating these analyses into public health decision-making has been challenging. We recommend establishing ‘outbreak science’ as an inter-disciplinary field to improve applied epidemic modeling

Association between tocilizumab, sarilumab and all-cause mortality at 28 days in hospitalised patients with COVID-19:A network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: A recent prospective meta-analysis demonstrated that interleukin-6 antagonists are associated with lower all-cause mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19, compared with usual care or placebo. However, emerging evidence suggests that clinicians are favouring the use of tocilizumab over sarilumab. A new randomised comparison of these agents from the REMAP-CAP trial shows similar effects on in-hospital mortality. Therefore, we initiated a network meta-analysis, to estimate pairwise associations between tocilizumab, sarilumab and usual care or placebo with 28-day mortality, in COVID-19 patients receiving concomitant corticosteroids and ventilation, based on all available direct and indirect evidence. METHODS: Eligible trials randomised hospitalised patients with COVID-19 that compared tocilizumab or sarilumab with usual care or placebo in the prospective meta-analysis or that directly compared tocilizumab with sarilumab. Data were restricted to patients receiving corticosteroids and either non-invasive or invasive ventilation at randomisation. Pairwise associations between tocilizumab, sarilumab and usual care or placebo for all-cause mortality 28 days after randomisation were estimated using a frequentist contrast-based network meta-analysis of odds ratios (ORs), implementing multivariate fixed-effects models that assume consistency between the direct and indirect evidence. FINDINGS: One trial (REMAP-CAP) was identified that directly compared tocilizumab with sarilumab and supplied results on all-cause mortality at 28-days. This network meta-analysis was based on 898 eligible patients (278 deaths) from REMAP-CAP and 3710 eligible patients from 18 trials (1278 deaths) from the prospective meta-analysis. Summary ORs were similar for tocilizumab [0·82 [0·71–0·95, p = 0·008]] and sarilumab [0·80 [0·61–1·04, p = 0·09]] compared with usual care or placebo. The summary OR for 28-day mortality comparing tocilizumab with sarilumab was 1·03 [95%CI 0·81–1·32, p = 0·80]. The p-value for the global test of inconsistency was 0·28. CONCLUSIONS: Administration of either tocilizumab or sarilumab was associated with lower 28-day all-cause mortality compared with usual care or placebo. The association is not dependent on the choice of interleukin-6 receptor antagonist

Effects of Intracoronary Alteplase on Microvascular Function in Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background—Impaired microcirculatory reperfusion worsens prognosis following acute ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction. In the T‐TIME (A Trial of Low‐Dose Adjunctive Alteplase During Primary PCI) trial, microvascular obstruction on cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging did not differ with adjunctive, low‐dose, intracoronary alteplase (10 or 20 mg) versus placebo during primary percutaneous coronary intervention. We evaluated the effects of intracoronary alteplase, during primary percutaneous coronary intervention, on the index of microcirculatory resistance, coronary flow reserve, and resistive reserve ratio. Methods and Results—A prespecified physiology substudy of the T‐TIME trial. From 2016 to 2017, patients with ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction ≤6 hours from symptom onset were randomized in a double‐blind study to receive alteplase 20 mg, alteplase 10 mg, or placebo infused into the culprit artery postreperfusion, but prestenting. Index of microcirculatory resistance, coronary flow reserve, and resistive reserve ratio were measured after percutaneous coronary intervention. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance was performed at 2 to 7 days and 3 months. Analyses in relation to ischemic time (<2, 2–4, and ≥4 hours) were prespecified. One hundred forty‐four patients (mean age, 59±11 years; 80% male) were prospectively enrolled, representing 33% of the overall population (n=440). Overall, index of microcirculatory resistance (median, 29.5; interquartile range, 17.0–55.0), coronary flow reserve(1.4 [1.1–2.0]), and resistive reserve ratio (1.7 [1.3–2.3]) at the end of percutaneous coronary intervention did not differ between treatment groups. Interactions were observed between ischemic time and alteplase for coronary flow reserve (P=0.013), resistive reserve ratio (P=0.026), and microvascular obstruction (P=0.022), but not index of microcirculatory resistance. Conclusions—In ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction with ischemic time ≤6 hours, there was overall no difference in microvascular function with alteplase versus placebo

Stratified medicine using invasive coronary function testing in angina: A cost-effectiveness analysis of the British Heart Foundation CorMicA trial

AIM: Coronary angiography is indicated in many patients with known or suspected angina for the investigation of coronary artery disease (CAD). However, up to half of patients with symptoms of ischaemia have no obstructive coronary arteries (INOCA). This large subgroup includes patients with suspected microvascular angina (MVA) and/or vasospastic angina (VSA). Clinical guidelines relating to the management of patients with INOCA are limited. Uncertainty regarding the diagnosis of patients with INOCA presents a health economic challenge, both in terms of healthcare resource utilisation and of quality-of-life impact on patients. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis of the introduction of stratified medicine into the invasive management of INOCA, based on clinical and resource-use data obtained in the CorMicA trial, from a UK NHS perspective. The intervention included an invasive diagnostic procedure (IDP) of coronary vascular function during coronary angiography to define clinical endotypes to target with linked medical therapy. Outcomes of interest were mean total cost and QALY gain between treatment groups, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. We undertook probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses. RESULTS: The incremental cost per QALY gained at 12 months was £4500 (£2937, £33264). Compared with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20,000 per QALY, the use of the IDP test is cost-effective. At this WTP threshold there is a 96% probability of the IDP being cost-effective, based on the uncertainty described by bootstrap analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of INOCA, particularly in women, is known to be significant. These findings provided new evidence to inform this unmet clinical need

Fluorocarbon evaporative cooling developments for the ATLAS pixel and semiconductor tracking detectors

Heat transfer coefficients 2-5.103 Wm-2K-1 have been measured in a 3.6 mm I.D. heated tube dissipating 100 Watts - close to the full equivalent power (~110 W) of a barrel SCT detector "stave" - over a range of power dissipations and mass flows in the above fluids. Aspects of full-scale evaporative cooling circulator design for the ATLAS experiment are discussed, together with plans for future development