Geometrical and physical properties of the 1982-84 deformation source at Campi Flegrei - Italy

Deformation of the ground surface in volcanic areas is generally recognized as a reliable indicator of unrest, possibly resulting from the intrusion of fresh magma within the shallow rock layers. The intrusion process is usually represented by a deformation source such as an ellipsoidal pressurized cavity, embedded within a homogeneous and elastic half-space. Similar source models allow inferring the depth, the location and the (incremental) volume of the intrusion, which are very important parameters for volcanic risk implications. However, assuming a homogeneous and elastic rheology and, assigning a priori the shape and the mechanism of the source (within a very restricted “library” of available solutions) may bias considerably the inference of source parameters. In complete generality, any point source deformation, including overpressure sources, may be described in terms of a suitable moment tensor, while the assumption of an overpressure source strongly restricts the variety of allowable moment tensors. In particular, by assuming a pressurized cavity, we rule out the possibility that either shear failure may precede magma emplacement (seismically induced intrusion) or may accompany it (mixed tensile and shear mode fracture). Another possibility is that a pre-existent weakness plane may be chosen by the ascending magma (fracture toughness heterogeneity). We perform joint inversion of levelling and EDM data (part of latter are unpublished), collected during the 1982-84 unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera: a 43% misfit reduction is obtained for a general moment source if the elastic heterogeneities computed from seismic tomography are accouted for. The inferred source is at 5.2 km depth but cannot be interpreted as a simple pressurized cavity. Moreover, if mass conservation is accounted for, magma emplaced within a shallow source must come from a (generally deeper) reservoir, which is usually assumed to be deep enough to be simply neglected. At Campi Flegrei, seismic tomography indicates that the “deep” magma source is rather shallow (at 7-8 km depth), so that its presence should be included in any thorough attempt to source modeling. Taking into account a deflating source at 7.5 km depth (represented either as a horizontal sill or as an isotropic cavity) and an inflating moment source, the fit of both levelling and EDM data improves further (misfit reduction 80%), but still the best fitting moment source (at 5.5 km depth) falls outside the range of pressurized ellipsoidal cavities. The shallow moment source may be decomposed in a tensile and a shear dislocation. No clue is obtained that the shear and the tensile mechanisms should be located in different positions. Our favourite interpretation is in terms of a crack opening in mixed tensile and shear mode, as would be provided by fluid magma unwelding pre-stressed solid rock. Although this decomposition of the source is not unique, the proposed solution is physically motivated by the minimum overpressure requirement. An important implication of this new interpretation is that the magma emplaced in the shallow moment source during the 1982-84 unrest was not added to already resident magma at the same position

Hazard assessment during caldera unrest at the Campi Flegrei, Italy: a contribution from gravity–height gradients

Hazard assessment and risk mitigation at restless calderas is only possible with adequate geophysical monitoring. We show here how detailed long-term micro-gravity and deformation surveys may contribute to hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc) in Italy by evaluating gravity–height change (Δg/Δh) gradients obtained during ground inflation and deflation between 1981 and 2001. Such gradients provide a framework from which to assess the likelihood and type of volcanic eruptions. Our new analysis of unrest at the CFc allows us to separate ‘noise’ during the gravity survey from the signal of deep-seated magmatic processes. This facilitates identification of the dynamics within the magma reservoir beneath the CFc. We found that magma replenishment during rapid uplift between 1982 and 1984 was insufficient, probably by one to two orders of magnitude, to trigger an eruption similar to the 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption, the most recent volcanic eruption within the CFc. Furthermore, our interpretation of Δg/Δh gradients for the ongoing period of deflation since 1984 suggests that eruptive volcanic activity is not imminent. Short periods of minor inflation associated with large gravity changes since 1981 are interpreted to reflect noise, which to some degree is probably due to sub-surface mass/density changes within shallow hydrothermal systems beneath the CFc, indicating no risk of eruptive volcanic activity. We propose that monitoring Δg/Δh gradients at restless calderas is essential as a caldera develops from a state of unrest to a state where volcanic eruptions have to be anticipated. Adoption of this method for the several tens of restless calderas world-wide will provide early warning of changes in or increase of activity at these supervolcanoes

Thirty years of precise gravity measurements at Mt. Vesuvius: an approach to detect underground mass movements

Since 1982, high precision gravity measurements have been routinely carried out on Mt. Vesuvius. The gravity network consists of selected sites most of them coinciding with, or very close to, leveling benchmarks to remove the effect of the elevation changes from gravity variations. The reference station is located in Napoli, outside the volcanic area. Since 1986, absolute gravity measurements have been periodically made on a station on Mt. Vesuvius, close to a permanent gravity station established in 1987, and at the reference in Napoli. The results of the gravity measurements since 1982 are presented and discussed. Moderate gravity changes on short-time were generally observed. On long-term significant gravity changes occurred and the overall fields displayed well defined patterns. Several periods of evolution may be recognized. Gravity changes revealed by the relative surveys have been confirmed by repeated absolute measurements, which also confirmed the long-term stability of the reference site. The gravity changes over the recognized periods appear correlated with the seismic crises and with changes of the tidal parameters obtained by continuous measurements. The absence of significant ground deformation implies masses redistribution, essentially density changes without significant volume changes, such as fluids migration at the depth of the seismic foci, i.e. at a few kilometers. The fluid migration may occur through pre-existing geological structures, as also suggested by hydrological studies, and/or through new fractures generated by seismic activity. This interpretation is supported by the analyses of the spatial gravity changes overlapping the most significant and recent seismic crises.</p

Strategies in the processing and analysis of continuous gravity record in active volcanic areas: the case of Mt. Vesuvius

This research is intended to describe new strategies in the processing and analysis of continuous gravity records collected in active volcanic areas and to assess how permanent gravity stations can improve the geophysical monitoring of a volcano. The experience of 15 years in continuous gravity monitoring on Mt. Vesuvius is discussed. Several geodynamic phenomena can produce temporal gravity changes. An eruption, for instance, is associated with the ascent of magma producing changes in the density distribution at depth, and leading to ground deformation and gravity changes The amplitude of such gravity variations is often quite small, in the order of 10-102 nms-2, so their detection requires high quality data and a rigorous procedure to isolate from the records those weak gravity signals coming from different sources. Ideally we need gravity signals free of all effects which are not of volcanic origin. Therefore solid Earth tide, ocean and atmospheric loading, instrumental drift or any kind of disturbances other than due to the volcano dynamics have to be removed. The state of the art on the modelling of the solid Earth tide is reviewed. The atmospheric dynamics is one of the main sources precluding the detection of small gravity signals. The most advanced methods to reduce the atmospheric effects on gravity are presented. As the variations of the calibration factors can prevent the repeatability of high-precision measurements, new approaches to model the instrumental response of mechanical gravimeters are proposed too. Moreover, a strategy for an accurate modelling of the instrumental drift and to distinguish it from longterm gravity changes is suggested

The first absolute gravity and height reference network in Sicily

The purpose of this work is to provide the methodological and instrumental framework for the establishment of a new absolute gravity and height reference network in Sicily. The aim of the network is to contribute to the new reference systems in the Italian area, useful for the scientific and technological activities related to the gravity field and to the proper definition of a modern height system in this region. The network is composed of 5 stations, evenly distributed to form a large mesh, which roughly covers the entire Sicily. Since four of the five selected stations were measured also in the 1990s, it was also possible to evaluate whether long-term gravity changes occurred at these sites (basic requirement for a reference network) and check the long-term ground deformation patterns, using data from the closest GPS/GNSS stations. The observed gravity changes over a time interval of about 30 years at the absolute stations and in the surrounding areas, confirm the long-term stability of the selected areas/sites

Corrigendum: Interpretation of spatiotemporal gravity changes accompanying the earthquake of 21 August 2017 on Ischia (Italy)

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Interpretation of spatiotemporal gravity changes accompanying the earthquake of 21 August 2017 on Ischia (Italy)

We analyse spatiotemporal gravity changes observed on the Ischia island (Italy) accompanying the destructive earthquake of 21 August 2017. The 29 May 2016 to 22 September 2017 time-lapse gravity changes observed at 18 benchmarks of the Ischia gravimetric network are first corrected for the gravitational effect of the surface deformation using the deformation-induced topographic effect (DITE) correction. The co-seismic DITE is computed by Newtonian volumetric integration using the Toposk software, a high-resolution LiDAR DEM and the co-seismic vertical displacement field derived from Sentinel-1 InSAR data. We compare numerically the DITE field with its commonly used Bouguer approximation over the island of Ischia with the outcome that the Bouguer approximation of DITE is adequate and accurate in this case. The residual gravity changes are then computed at gravity benchmarks by correcting the observed gravity changes for the planar Bouguer effect of the elevation changes at benchmarks over the same period. The residual gravity changes are then inverted using an inversion approach based on model exploration and growing source bodies, making use of the Growth-dg inversion tool. The found inversion model, given as subsurface time-lapse density changes, is then interpreted as mainly due to a co-seismic or post-seismic disturbance of the hydrothermal system of the island. Pros and weak points of such interpretation are discussed

PIK3R1W624R Is an Actionable Mutation in High Grade Serous Ovarian Carcinoma.

Identifying cancer drivers and actionable mutations is critical for precision oncology. In epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) the majority of mutations lack biological or clinical validation. We fully characterized 43 lines of Patient-Derived Xenografts (PDXs) and performed copy number analysis and whole exome sequencing of 12 lines derived from naïve, high grade EOCs. Pyrosequencing allowed quantifying mutations in the source tumours. Drug response was assayed on PDX Derived Tumour Cells (PDTCs) and in vivo on PDXs. We identified a PIK3R1W624R variant in PDXs from a high grade serous EOC. Allele frequencies of PIK3R1W624R in all the passaged PDXs and in samples of the source tumour suggested that it was truncal and thus possibly a driver mutation. After inconclusive results in silico analyses, PDTCs and PDXs allowed the showing actionability of PIK3R1W624R and addiction of PIK3R1W624R carrying cells to inhibitors of the PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway. It is noteworthy that PIK3R1 encodes the p85α regulatory subunit of PI3K, that is very rarely mutated in EOC. The PIK3R1W624R mutation is located in the cSH2 domain of the p85α that has never been involved in oncogenesis. These data show that patient-derived models are irreplaceable in their role of unveiling unpredicted driver and actionable variants in advanced ovarian cancer