Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach

Econometric Modeling provides a new and stimulating introduction to econometrics, focusing on modeling. The key issue confronting empirical economics is to establish sustainable relationships that are both supported by data and interpretable from economic theory. The unified likelihood-based approach of this book gives students the required statistical foundations of estimation and inference, and leads to a thorough understanding of econometric techniques. David Hendry and Bent Nielsen introduce modeling for a range of situations, including binary data sets, multiple regression, and cointegrated systems. In each setting, a statistical model is constructed to explain the observed variation in the data, with estimation and inference based on the likelihood function. Substantive issues are always addressed, showing how both statistical and economic assumptions can be tested and empirical results interpreted. Important empirical problems such as structural breaks, forecasting, and model selection are covered, and Monte Carlo simulation is explained and applied. Econometric Modeling is a self-contained introduction for advanced undergraduate or graduate students. Throughout, data illustrate and motivate the approach, and are available for computer-based teaching. Technical issues from probability theory and statistical theory are introduced only as needed. Nevertheless, the approach is rigorous, emphasizing the coherent formulation, estimation, and evaluation of econometric models relevant for empirical research.modeling, sustainable relationships, unified likelihood, estimation, inference, binary sets, multiple regression, cointegrated systems

Infrared Non-detection of Fomalhaut b -- Implications for the Planet Interpretation

The nearby A4-type star Fomalhaut hosts a debris belt in the form of an eccentric ring, which is thought to be caused by dynamical influence from a giant planet companion. In 2008, a detection of a point-source inside the inner edge of the ring was reported and was interpreted as a direct image of the planet, named Fomalhaut b. The detection was made at ~600--800 nm, but no corresponding signatures were found in the near-infrared range, where the bulk emission of such a planet should be expected. Here we present deep observations of Fomalhaut with Spitzer/IRAC at 4.5 um, using a novel PSF subtraction technique based on ADI and LOCI, in order to substantially improve the Spitzer contrast at small separations. The results provide more than an order of magnitude improvement in the upper flux limit of Fomalhaut b and exclude the possibility that any flux from a giant planet surface contributes to the observed flux at visible wavelengths. This renders any direct connection between the observed light source and the dynamically inferred giant planet highly unlikely. We discuss several possible interpretations of the total body of observations of the Fomalhaut system, and find that the interpretation that best matches the available data for the observed source is scattered light from transient or semi-transient dust cloud.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, ApJ 747, 166. V2: updated acknowledgments and reference

Disciplinary Climate and Student Achievement: Evidence from Schools and Classrooms

Disciplinary climate has emerged as one of the single most important factors related to student achievement. Using data from the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2003 for Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Latvia and Norway we find a significant and nontrivial association between the perceived disciplinary climate in the classroom and students’ mathematics performance in Canada, Denmark and Norway. Furthermore we exploit country specific class-size rules in order to single out a subsample with classroom-level data (PISA is sampled by age and not by classes) and find that the estimates based on school-level data might underestimate the relationship between disciplinary climate and student achievement. Finally we find evidence for gender differences in the association between disciplinary climate and student achievement that can partly be explained by gender-specific perceptions of the classroom environment

Differences in harvesting and marketing strategies between Iceland and Norway

Source at https://okonomiskfiskeriforskning.no/differences-in-harvesting-and-marketing-strategies-between-iceland-and-norway/.For decades, whitefish industries in Iceland and Norway have produced similar products and have exported to the same global markets. Nevertheless, there are indications that the Icelandic industry has been more profitable than the Norwegian industry over the same time period. Therefore, this study aims to determine if the two competing industries pursue different marketing and harvesting strategies to maximise their take of one of the region’s most valuable natural resources. To test the hypotheses, raw material supply data and product sales data were collected and analysed. The results revealed that Iceland was pursuing a differentiation strategy by exporting more high-priced, fresh whitefish fillets. This marketing strategy was aligned with a procurement strategy that focused on obtaining fresh, high-quality raw materials caught by hook. In contrast, the Norwegian industry was following a low-price strategy by catching more fish with gillnets and selling the unprocessed fresh or frozen fish at a low price. It has been argued that the superior harvesting and marketing strategies of the Icelandic industry may be rooted in factor conditions that are difficult to duplicate and a rigid institutional framework in Norway. This framework is related to the freedom to organise the value chain (i.e. by vertical integration) and the transfer of licences to vessels that can continously supply high-quality raw materials. However, to adopt the Icelandic institutional framework, Norwegian authorities must take pivotal steps.Norge og Island har lenge vært konkurrenter. De fanger mange av de samme artene og produserer like produkter som eksporteres til et globalt marked. Flere forhold tyder på at islandsk fiskeindustri har hatt bedre lønnsomhet enn den norske. Denne analysen retter derfor oppmerksomheten mot om industrien på Island og i Norge har valgt ulike høstings- og markedsstrategier. I analysen benyttes data fra fangst og produksjon av hvitfisk i de to landene. Resultatene i analysen viser at islandsk fiskeindustri har valgt en annen markedsstrategi enn den norske. Islendingene produserer langt mer høyt priset ferske filetprodukter enn nordmennene. Denne markedsstrategien er godt koordinert med høstingsstrategien som er valgt. Særlig påfallende er det at en langt større andel av fisken fanges med krokredskaper enn i Norge. I Norge er det valgt en lavprisstrategi. Her fanges fisken i en intens vintersesong og garn er et effektivt og dominerende fangstredskap. Den norske produktporteføljen er da også dominert av konvensjonelle produkter. I tillegg eksporteres det en stor andel ubearbeidet rund hvitfisk – både fersk og rundfrossen. I analysen diskuteres det om nordmenn kan kopiere islendingenes fangst – og produksjonsstrategi. Det konkluderes med at det er mulig å kopiere islendingens forvaltning av fiskeressursene og regler for økonomisk organisering. Islendingene har imidlertid bestander med et annet vandringsmønster enn de norske. Det vil derfor være vanskelig for nordmenn å kopiere islendingens suksess – selv om det blir gjort forsøk på å kopiere islandsk forvaltning

Rehearsal: A Configuration Verification Tool for Puppet

Large-scale data centers and cloud computing have turned system configuration into a challenging problem. Several widely-publicized outages have been blamed not on software bugs, but on configuration bugs. To cope, thousands of organizations use system configuration languages to manage their computing infrastructure. Of these, Puppet is the most widely used with thousands of paying customers and many more open-source users. The heart of Puppet is a domain-specific language that describes the state of a system. Puppet already performs some basic static checks, but they only prevent a narrow range of errors. Furthermore, testing is ineffective because many errors are only triggered under specific machine states that are difficult to predict and reproduce. With several examples, we show that a key problem with Puppet is that configurations can be non-deterministic. This paper presents Rehearsal, a verification tool for Puppet configurations. Rehearsal implements a sound, complete, and scalable determinacy analysis for Puppet. To develop it, we (1) present a formal semantics for Puppet, (2) use several analyses to shrink our models to a tractable size, and (3) frame determinism-checking as decidable formulas for an SMT solver. Rehearsal then leverages the determinacy analysis to check other important properties, such as idempotency. Finally, we apply Rehearsal to several real-world Puppet configurations.Comment: In proceedings of ACM SIGPLAN Conference on Programming Language Design and Implementation (PLDI) 201

Transnational comparison : A retrospective study on e-health in sparsely populated areas of the northern periphery

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Subtiliter alternare: The Yoxford Motet o amicus / Precursaris

The L'Oiseau-Lyre series largely excludes incomplete pieces; the number of complete motets, especially from the late fourteenth century, is still very small. Any addition to their number deserves comment; license for the extent of the present essay must lie in the cleverness with which its subject has been fashioned. o amicus / Precursoris qualifies as a motet by even the most rigorous of French standards, with its duply proportioned tenor diminution, two different texts, and chant tenor. In addition, it undertakes many further subtleties, including an early, or even the earliest, combination of canon with isorhythm, canon on a plainsong, canon at the fifth, and mensuration canon. It occupies the center of a bifolium that now serves as the first pair of flyleaves to a manuscript Extent of the manor of Yoxford, Suffolk, dated 11 Edward IV (1471-72)

Fine Mapping of the SCN Resistance Locus \u3ci\u3erhg1-b\u3c/i\u3e from PI 88788

Soybean cyst nematode (SCN) (Heterodera glycines Ichinohe) is the most economically damaging soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] pest in the USA and genetic resistance is a key component for its control. Although SCN resistance is quantitative, the rhg1 locus on chromosome 18 (formerly known as Linkage Group G) confers a high level of resistance. The objective of this study was to fi ne-map the rhg1-b allele that is derived from plant introduction (PI) 88788. F2 and F3 plants and F3:4 lines from crosses between SCN resistant and susceptible genotypes were tested with genetic markers to identify recombination events close to rhg1-b. Lines developed from these recombinant plants were then tested for resistance to the SCN isolate PA3, which originally had an HG type 0 phenotype, and with genetic markers. Analysis of lines carrying key recombination events positioned rhg1-b between the simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers BARCSOYSSR_18_0090 and BARCSOYSSR_18_0094. This places rhg1-b to a 67-kb region of the ‘Williams 82’ genome sequence. The receptor-like kinase gene that has been previously identified as a candidate for the ‘Peking’-derived SCN resistant rhg1 gene is adjacent to, but outside of, the rhg1-b interval defined in the present study