Risk prediction in patients with heart failure: A systematic review and analysis

Objectives This study sought to review the literature for risk prediction models in patients with heart failure and to identify the most consistently reported independent predictors of risk across models. Background Risk assessment provides information about patient prognosis, guides decision making about the type and intensity of care, and enables better understanding of provider performance. Methods MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from January 1995 to March 2013, followed by hand searches of the retrieved reference lists. Studies were eligible if they reported at least 1 multivariable model for risk prediction of death, hospitalization, or both in patients with heart failure and reported model performance. We ranked reported individual risk predictors by their strength of association with the outcome and assessed the association of model performance with study characteristics. Results Sixty-four main models and 50 modifications from 48 studies met the inclusion criteria. Of the 64 main models, 43 models predicted death, 10 hospitalization, and 11 death or hospitalization. The discriminatory ability of the models for prediction of death appeared to be higher than that for prediction of death or hospitalization or prediction of hospitalization alone (p = 0.0003). A wide variation between studies in clinical settings, population characteristics, sample size, and variables used for model development was observed, but these features were not significantly associated with the discriminatory performance of the models. A few strong predictors emerged for prediction of death; the most consistently reported predictors were age, renal function, blood pressure, blood sodium level, left ventricular ejection fraction, sex, brain natriuretic peptide level, New York Heart Association functional class, diabetes, weight or body mass index, and exercise capacity. Conclusions There are several clinically useful and well-validated death prediction models in patients with heart failure. Although the studies differed in many respects, the models largely included a few common markers of risk

Genetic susceptibility, elevated blood pressure and risk of atrial fibrillation:A Mendelian randomization study

Background: Whether elevated blood pressure (BP) is a modifiable risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF) is not established. We tested (1) whether the association between BP and risk of AF is causal, (2) whether it varies according to individual’s genetic susceptibility for AF, and (3) the extent to which specific BP-lowering drugs are expected to reduce this risk. Methods: First, causality of association was assessed through two-sample Mendelian randomization, using data from two independent genome-wide association studies that included a total of one million European population. Second, the UK Biobank data of 329,237 participants at baseline was used to study the effect of BP on AF according to genetic susceptibility of developing AF. Third, a possible treatment effect with major BP-lowering drug classes on AF risk was predicted through genetic variants in genes encode the therapeutic targets of each drug class. Estimated drug effects were compared with effects on incident coronary heart disease, for which direct trial evidence exists. Results: The two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis indicated that, on average, exposure to a higher systolic BP increased the risk of AF by 19% (odds ratio per each 10-mm Hg [OR]: 1.19 [1.12 to 1.27]). This association was replicated in the UK biobank using individual participant data. However, in a further genetic risk-stratified analysis, there was evidence for a linear gradient in the relative effects of systolic BP on AF; while there was no conclusive evidence of an effect in those with low genetic risk, a strong effect was observed among those with high genetic susceptibility for AF. The comparison of predicted treatment effects using genetic proxies for three main drug classes (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta-blockers and calcium channel blockers) suggested similar average effects for the prevention of atrial fibrillation and coronary heart disease. Conclusions: The effect of elevated BP on the risk of AF is likely to be causal, suggesting that BP-lowering treatment may be effective in AF prevention. However, average effects masked clinically important variations, with a more pronounced effect in individuals with high genetic susceptibility risk for AF

Associations of Skeletal Muscle Mass and Fat Mass With Incident Cardiovascular Disease and All-Cause Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study of UK Biobank Participants.

Background There is debate whether body mass index is a good predictor of health outcomes because different tissues, namely skeletal muscle mass (SMM) and fat mass (FM), may be differentially associated with risk. We investigated the association of appendicular SMM (aSMM) and FM with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. We compared their prognostic value to that of body mass index. Methods and Results We studied 356 590 UK Biobank participants aged 40 to 69 years with bioimpedance analysis data for whole-body FM and predicted limb muscle mass (to calculate aSMM). Associations between aSMM and FM with CVD and all-cause mortality were examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Over 3 749 501 person-years of follow-up, there were 27 784 CVD events and 15 844 all-cause deaths. In men, aSMM was positively associated with CVD incidence (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD 1.07; 95% CI, 1.06-1.09) and there was a curvilinear association in women. There were stronger positive associations between FM and CVD with HRs per SD of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.19-1.22) and 1.25 (95% CI, 1.23-1.27) in men and women respectively. Within FM tertiles, the associations between aSMM and CVD risk largely persisted. There were J-shaped associations between aSMM and FM with all-cause mortality in both sexes. Body mass index was modestly better at discriminating CVD risk. Conclusions FM showed a strong positive association with CVD risk. The relationship of aSMM with CVD risk differed between sexes, and potential mechanisms need further investigation. Body fat and SMM bioimpedance measurements were not superior to body mass index in predicting population-level CVD incidence or all-cause mortality

Polar Perturbations of Self-gravitating Supermassive Global Monopoles

Spontaneous global symmetry breaking of O(3) scalar field gives rise to point-like topological defects, global monopoles. By taking into account self-gravity,the qualitative feature of the global monopole solutions depends on the vacuum expectation value v of the scalar field. When v < sqrt{1 / 8 pi}, there are global monopole solutions which have a deficit solid angle defined at infinity. When sqrt{1 / 8 pi} <= v < sqrt{3 / 8 pi}, there are global monopole solutions with the cosmological horizon, which we call the supermassive global monopole. When v >= sqrt{3 / 8 pi}, there is no nontrivial solution. It was shown that all of these solutions are stable against the spherical perturbations. In addition to the global monopole solutions, the de Sitter solutions exist for any value of v. They are stable against the spherical perturbations when v sqrt{3 / 8 pi}. We study polar perturbations of these solutions and find that all self-gravitating global monopoles are stable even against polar perturbations, independently of the existence of the cosmological horizon, while the de Sitter solutions are always unstable.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, corrected some type mistakes (already corrected in PRD version

Pharmacotherapy for smoking cessation:effects by subgroup defined by genetically informed biomarkers

BACKGROUND: Smoking cessation therapies are not effective for all smokers, and researchers are interested in identifying those subgroups of individuals (e.g. based on genotype) who respond best to specific treatments. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether quit rates vary by genetically informed biomarkers within pharmacotherapy treatment arms and as compared with placebo. To assess the effects of pharmacotherapies for smoking cessation in subgroups of smokers defined by genotype for identified genome-wide significant polymorphisms. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group specialised register, clinical trial registries, and genetics databases for trials of pharmacotherapies for smoking cessation from inception until 16 August 2016. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that recruited adult smokers and reported pharmacogenomic analyses from trials of smoking cessation pharmacotherapies versus controls. Eligible trials included those with data on a priori genome-wide significant (P andlt; 5 and#215; 10-8) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), replicated non-SNPs, and/or the nicotine metabolite ratio (NMR), hereafter collectively described as biomarkers. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. The primary outcome was smoking abstinence at six months after treatment. The secondary outcome was abstinence at end of treatment (EOT). We conducted two types of meta-analyses- one in which we assessed smoking cessation of active treatment versus placebo within genotype groups, and another in which we compared smoking cessation across genotype groups within treatment arms. We carried out analyses separately in non-Hispanic whites (NHWs) and non-Hispanic blacks (NHBs). We assessed heterogeneity between genotype groups using Tand#178;, Iand#178;, and Cochrane Q statistics. MAIN RESULTS: Analyses included 18 trials including 9017 participants, of whom 6924 were NHW and 2093 NHB participants. Data were available for the following biomarkers: nine SNPs (rs1051730 (CHRNA3); rs16969968, rs588765, and rs2036527 (CHRNA5); rs3733829 and rs7937 (in EGLN2, near CYP2A6); rs1329650 and rs1028936 (LOC100188947); and rs215605 (PDE1C)), two variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs; DRD4 and SLC6A4), and the NMR. Included data produced a total of 40 active versus placebo comparisons, 16 active versus active comparisons, and 64 between-genotype comparisons within treatment arms.For those meta-analyses showing statistically significant heterogeneity between genotype groups, we found the quality of evidence (GRADE) to be generally moderate. We downgraded quality most often because of imprecision or risk of bias due to potential selection bias in genotyping trial participants. Comparisons of relative treatment effects by genotypeFor six-month abstinence, we found statistically significant heterogeneity between genotypes (rs16969968) for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) versus placebo at six months for NHB participants (P = 0.03; n = 2 trials), but not for other biomarkers or treatment comparisons. Six-month abstinence was increased in the active NRT group as compared to placebo among participants with a GG genotype (risk ratio (RR) 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07 to 2.03), but not in the combined group of participants with a GA or AA genotype (RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.15 to 1.26; ratio of risk ratios (RRR) GG vs GA or AA of 3.51, 95% CI 1.19 to 10.3). Comparisons of treatment effects between genotype groups within pharmacotherapy randomisation armsFor those receiving active NRT, treatment was more effective in achieving six-month abstinence among individuals with a slow NMR than among those with a normal NMR among NHW and NHB combined participants (normal NMR vs slow NMR: RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.78; n = 2 trials). We found no such differences in treatment effects between genotypes at six months for any of the other biomarkers among individuals who received pharmacotherapy or placebo. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We did not identify widespread differential treatment effects of pharmacotherapy based on genotype. Some genotype groups within certain ethnic groups may benefit more from NRT or may benefit less from the combination of bupropion with NRT. The reader should interpret these results with caution because none of the statistically significant meta-analyses included more than two trials per genotype comparison, many confidence intervals were wide, and the quality of this evidence (GRADE) was generally moderate. Although we found evidence of superior NRT efficacy for NMR slow versus normal metabolisers, because of the lack of heterogeneity between NMR groups, we cannot conclude that NRT is more effective for slow metabolisers. Access to additional data from multiple trials is needed, particularly for comparisons of different pharmacotherapies.</p

Study protocol : the empirical investigation of methods to correct for measurement error in biobanks with dietary assessment

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Perturbations of global monopoles as a black hole's hair

We study the stability of a spherically symmetric black hole with a global monopole hair. Asymptotically the spacetime is flat but has a deficit solid angle which depends on the vacuum expectation value of the scalar field. When the vacuum expectation value is larger than a certain critical value, this spacetime has a cosmological event horizon. We investigate the stability of these solutions against the spherical and polar perturbations and confirm that the global monopole hair is stable in both cases. Although we consider some particular modes in the polar case, our analysis suggests the conservation of the "topological charge" in the presence of the event horizons and violation of black hole no-hair conjecture in asymptotically non-flat spacetime.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figures, some descriptions were improve

Blood pressure lowering and risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes:an individual participant data meta-analysis

Background Blood pressure lowering is an established strategy for preventing microvascular and macrovascular complications of diabetes, but its role in the prevention of diabetes itself is unclear. We aimed to examine this question using individual participant data from major randomised controlled trials. Methods We performed a one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis, in which data were pooled to investigate the effect of blood pressure lowering per se on the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes. An individual participant data network meta-analysis was used to investigate the differential effects of five major classes of antihypertensive drugs on the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes. Overall, data from 22 studies conducted between 1973 and 2008, were obtained by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (Oxford University, Oxford, UK). We included all primary and secondary prevention trials that used a specific class or classes of antihypertensive drugs versus placebo or other classes of blood pressure lowering medications that had at least 1000 persons-years of followup in each randomly allocated arm. Participants with a known diagnosis of diabetes at baseline and trials conducted in patients with prevalent diabetes were excluded. For the one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis we used stratified Cox proportional hazards model and for the individual participant data network meta-analysis we used logistic regression models to calculate the relative risk (RR) for drug class comparisons. Findings 145 939 participants (88 500 [60.6%] men and 57 429 [39.4%] women) from 19 randomised controlled trials were included in the one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis. 22 trials were included in the individual participant data network meta-analysis. After a median follow-up of 4.5 years (IQR 2.0), 9883 participants were diagnosed with new-onset type 2 diabetes. Systolic blood pressure reduction by 5 mm Hg reduced the risk of type 2 diabetes across all trials by 11% (hazard ratio 0.89 [95% CI 0.84-0.95]). Investigation of the effects of five major classes of antihypertensive drugs showed that in comparison to placebo, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (RR 0.84 [95% 0.76-0.93]) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (RR 0.84 [0.76-0.92]) reduced the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes; however, the use of beta blockers (RR 1.48 [1.27-1.72]) and thiazide diuretics (RR 1.20 [1.07-1.35]) increased this risk, and no material effect was found for calcium channel blockers (RR 1.02 [0.92-1.13]). Interpretation Blood pressure lowering is an effective strategy for the prevention of new-onset type 2 diabetes. Established pharmacological interventions, however, have qualitatively and quantitively different effects on diabetes, likely due to their differing off-target effects, with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers having the most favourable outcomes. This evidence supports the indication for selected classes of antihypertensive drugs for the prevention of diabetes, which could further refine the selection of drug choice according to an individual's clinical risk of diabetes

Association of vitamin D with risk of type 2 diabetes:A Mendelian randomisation study in European and Chinese adults

BACKGROUND:Observational studies have reported that higher plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations are associated with lower risks of diabetes, but it is unclear if these associations are causal. The aim of this study was to test the relevance of 25(OH)D for type 2 diabetes using genetically instrumented differences in plasma 25(OH)D concentrations. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Data were available on four 25(OH)D single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; n = 82,464), plasma 25(OH)D concentrations (n = 13,565), and cases with diabetes (n = 5,565) in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). The effects on risk of diabetes were assessed by a genetic score using two 25(OH)D synthesis SNPs (DHCR7-rs12785878 and CYP2R1-rs10741657), with and without the addition of SNPs affecting the transport (GC/DBP-rs2282679) and catabolism (CYP24A1-rs6013897) of 25(OH)D. The CKB results were combined in a meta-analysis of 10 studies for the 2 synthesis SNPs (n = 58,312 cases) and 7 studies for all 4 SNPs (n = 32,796 cases). Mean (SD) 25(OH)D concentration was 62 (20) nmol/l in CKB, and the per allele effects of genetic scores on 25(OH)D were 2.87 (SE 0.39) for the synthesis SNPs and 3.54 (SE 0.32) for all SNPs. A 25-nmol/l higher biochemically measured 25(OH)D was associated with a 9% (95% CI: 0%-18%) lower risk of diabetes in CKB. In a meta-analysis of all studies, a 25-nmol/l higher genetically instrumented 25(OH)D concentration was associated with a 14% (95% CI: 3%-23%) lower risk of diabetes (p = 0.01) using the 2 synthesis SNPs. An equivalent difference in 25(OH)D using a genetic score with 4 SNPs was not significantly associated with diabetes (odds ratio 8%, 95% CI: -1% to 16%, lower risk, p = 0.07), but had some evidence of pleiotropy. A limitation of the meta-analysis was the access only to study level rather than individual level data. CONCLUSIONS:The concordant risks of diabetes for biochemically measured and genetically instrumented differences in 25(OH)D using synthesis SNPs provide evidence for a causal effect of higher 25(OH)D for prevention of diabetes