Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area

A number of novelties have emerged in the study of the discretionary fiscal policy within the Euro area during the last decade. Among the others, the availability of up-to-date information on fiscal indicators for the years following the Great Recession, the introduction of cutting-edge econometric methods, and a renewed interest about the sustainability of fiscal policy and public debt. The aim of this paper is to address the challenges posed by the estimation of the discretionary fiscal reaction function for the Euro area. We exploit recently introduced testing and estimation strategies for heterogeneous dynamic panels with cross-sectional dependence and propose a new parsimonious approach. Using real-time data over the period 1996-2016, we investigate whether the fiscal policy reaction function is still a benchmark after the Great Recession. We find evidence of strong cross-sectional dependence in the panel, and clear support to a valid cointegration relationship among the main determinants of the function. Newly added covariates, such interest rate spreads, come out to play a relevant role in explaining discretionary actions

The spread of manufacturing to the periphery 1870-2007: eight stylized facts

This paper documents industrial output growth around the poor periphery (Latin America, the European periphery, the Middle East and North Africa, Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa) between 1870 and 2007. We provide answers to the following questions. When and where did rapid industrial growth begin in the periphery? When and where did peripheral growth rates exceed those in the industrial core? When was the high-point of peripheral industrial growth? When and where did it become widespread? When was the high-point of peripheral convergence on the core? How variable was the growth experience between countries? And how persistent was peripheral industrial growth

A new modeling framework of component degradation

International audienceModeling the degradation process of a component is a fundamental issue for maintenance poli-cy definition. In this work, a degradation model based on the concept of component "effective age‟ is pro-posed. The effective age of a component is treated like a physical variable, indicative of its degradation state, and allows to describe the fact that age may evolve faster or slower than chronological time in adverse or fa-vorable working conditions, respectively. Under this concept, the objective of degradation modeling becomes the identification of the relations between the environmental and operating conditions of the component and its effective age. In particular, the proposed degradation modeling paradigm is thought to be applied to the situation, very common in practice, in which the only available information to build the model is that elicited from experts. The proposed modeling framework is applied to a real case study of a medium voltage test net-work

A Modeling Framework for Maintenance Optimization of Electrical Components Based on Fuzzy Logic and Effective Age

International audienceIn this article, the problem of building a model in support of maintenance optimization when the only available information is that elicited from one expert is tackled. In particular, the degradation process affecting the component is modeled by resorting to the concept of effective age. Information is elicited from one expert by following a systematic literature approach, and the theoretical framework of fuzzy logic is used to deal with his or her qualitative statements. A hybrid approach based on Monte Carlo method and fuzzy logic is then applied to evaluate the performance of a given maintenance policy. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied to a real case study dealing with a medium-voltage test network