How to assess future agricultural performance under climate change? A case-study on the Veneto region

In this paper, we have constructed and tested a simple methodology for assessing and predicting climate change effects on agricultural yields. The methodology follows two steps. First, we econometrically estimate the marginal product of key production inputs (e.g., labor and land), through the estimation of production functions. Then, we predict future agricultural sector performance, by assuming a future with climate-induced changes in the land use and in agricultural labor use, under different IPCC scenarios. We also assume that no dramatic technological change in agriculture production will occur in the near future, so that the selected inputs will present the same marginal product. We assume that the agricultural sector might develop differently under different climate change-induced scenarios and that the use of land and labor will change accordingly. In this way, we are able to compute predictions on the agricultural sector performance in the future, under very different circumstances. We apply the methodology for predicting the sector performance of the Veneto region in 2030. Results differ according to the selected IPCC scenario and consequent input use variations. In the selected case study, for instance, land presents a very high productivity and climate-induced changes in the land use might dramatically (positively and negatively) affect agricultural yields under different IPCC scenarios. In this perspective, the climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and options should primarily aim at the preservation of land productivity in Veneto

GRB Observed by IBIS/PICsIT in the MeV Energy Range

We present the preliminary results of a systematic search for GRB and other transients in the publicly available data for the IBIS/PICsIT (0.2-10 MeV) detector on board INTEGRAL. Lightcurves in 2-8 energy bands with time resolution from 1 to 62.5 ms have been collected and an analysis of spectral and temporal characteristics has been performed. This is the nucleus of a forthcoming first catalog of GRB observed by PICsIT.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures. Poster presented at COSPAR 2008. Advaces in Space Research, accepted for publicatio

Reação de genótipos de trigo ao mosaico comum - análise de dados 2010.

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Triticale: situação atual mundial e brasileira.

Área: Melhoramento, Aptidão Industrial e Sementes

Reação de genótipos de trigo ao BYDV - PAV, agente causal do nanismo amarelo: análise de dados 2010.

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Contextual factors among indiscriminate or larger attacks on food or water supplies, 1946-2015

This research updates previous inventories of malicious attacks on food and water to include data from 1946 through mid-2015. A systematic search of news reports, databases and previous inventories of poisoning events was undertaken. Incidents that threatened or were intended to achieve direct harm to humans, and that were either relatively large (number of victims > 4 or indiscriminate in intent or realisation were included. Agents could be chemical, biological or radio-nuclear. Reports of candidate incidents were subjected to systematic inclusion and exclusion criteria as well as validity analysis (not always clearly undertaken in previous inventories of such attacks). We summarise contextual aspects of the attacks that may be important for scenario prioritisation, modelling and defensive preparedness. Opportunity is key to most realised attacks, particularly access to dangerous agents. The most common motives and relative success rate in causing harm were very different between food and water attacks. The likelihood that people were made ill or died also varied by food/water mode, and according to motive and opportunity for delivery of the hazardous agent. Deaths and illness associated with attacks during food manufacture and prior to sale have been fewer than those in some other contexts. Valuable opportunities for food defence improvements are identified in other contexts, especially food prepared in private or community settings

O uso de centeio como cultura intercalar em videiras.

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An active state of the BL Lac Object Markarian 421 detected by INTEGRAL in April 2013

Multiwavelength variability of blazars offers indirect insight into their powerful engines and on the mechanisms through which energy is propagated from the centre down the jet. The BL Lac object Mkn 421 is a TeV emitter, a bright blazar at all wavelengths, and therefore an excellent target for variability studies. Mkn 421 was observed by INTEGRAL and Fermi-LAT in an active state on 16-21 April 2013. Well sampled optical, soft, and hard X-ray light curves show the presence of two flares. The average flux in the 20-100 keV range is 9.1e-11 erg/s/cm2 (~4.5 mCrab) and the nuclear average apparent magnitude, corrected for Galactic extinction, is V ~12.2. In the time-resolved X-ray spectra (3.5-60 keV), which are described by broken power laws and, marginally better, by log-parabolic laws, we see a hardening that correlates with flux increase, as expected in refreshed energy injections in a population of electrons that later cool via synchrotron radiation. The hardness ratios between the JEM-X fluxes in two different bands and between the JEM-X and IBIS/ISGRI fluxes confirm this trend. During the observation, the variability level increases monotonically from the optical to the hard X-rays, while the large LAT errors do not allow a significant assessment of the MeV-GeV variability. The cross-correlation analysis during the onset of the most prominent flare suggests a monotonically increasing delay of the lower frequency emission with respect to that at higher frequency, with a maximum time-lag of about 70 minutes, that is however not well constrained. The spectral energy distributions from the optical to the TeV domain are satisfactorily described by homogeneous models of blazar emission based on synchrotron radiation and synchrotron self-Compton scattering, except in the state corresponding to the LAT softest spectrum and highest flux.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, in press in A&