Climate Variability and Ross River Virus Transmission in Townsville Region, Australia 1985 to 1996

Background How climate variability affects the transmission of infectious diseases at a regional level remains unclear. In this paper, we assessed the impact of climate variation on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission in the Townsville region, Queensland, north-east Australia. Methods Population-based information was obtained on monthly variations in RRv cases, climatic factors, sea level, and population growth between 1985 and 1996. Cross-correlations were computed for a series of associations between climate variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity and high tide) and the monthly incidence of RRv disease over a range of time lags. The impact of climate variability on RRv transmission was assessed using the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Results There were significant correlations of the monthly incidence of RRv to rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity, all at a lag of 2 months, and high tide in the current month. The results of SARIMA models show that monthly average rainfall (β=0.0012, p=0.04) and high tide (β=0.0262, p=0.01) were significantly associated with RRv transmission, although temperature and relative humidity did not seem to have played an important role in the Townsville region. Conclusions Rainfall, and high tide were likely to be key determinants of RRv transmission in the Townsville region

The Assimilation of Phytoplankton Functional Types for Operational Forecasting in the Northwest European Shelf

This paper proposes the use of assimilation of phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) surface chlorophyll for operational forecasting of biogeochemistry on the North‐West European (NWE) Shelf. We explicitly compare the 5‐day forecasting skill of three runs of a physical‐biogeochemical model: (a) a free reference run, (b) a run with daily data assimilation (DA) of total surface chlorophyll (ChlTot), and (c) a run with daily PFTs DA. We show that small total chlorophyll model bias hides comparatively large biases in PFTs chlorophyll, which ChlTot DA fails to correct. This is because the ChlTot DA splits the assimilated total chlorophyll into PFTs by preserving their simulated ratios, rather than taking account of the observed PFT concentrations. Unlike ChlTot DA, PFTs DA substantially improves model representation of PFTs chlorophyll. During forecasting the DA reanalysis skill in representing PFTs chlorophyll degrades toward the free run skill; however, PFTs DA outperforms free run within the whole 5‐day forecasting period. We validated our results with in situ data, and we demonstrated that (in both DA cases) the DA substantially improves the model representation of CO2 fugacity (PFTs DA more than ChlTot DA). ChlTot DA has a positive impact on the representation of silicate, while the PFTs DA seems to have a negative impact. The impact of DA on nitrate and phosphate is not significant. The implications of using a univariate assimilation method, which preserves the phytoplankton stochiometry, and the impact of model biases on the nonassimilated variables are discussed

Ecological Modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) Pupal Production in Rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Background - Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, the most important arboviral infection globally. Until an effective vaccine is licensed and rigorously administered, Ae. aegypti control remains the principal tool in preventing and curtailing dengue transmission. Accurate predictions of vector populations are required to assess control methods and develop effective population reduction strategies. Ae. aegypti develops primarily in artificial water holding containers. Release recapture studies indicate that most adult Ae. aegypti do not disperse over long distances. We expect, therefore, that containers in an area of high development site density are more likely to be oviposition sites and to be more frequently used as oviposition sites than containers that are relatively isolated from other development sites. After accounting for individual container characteristics, containers more frequently used as oviposition sites are likely to produce adult mosquitoes consistently and at a higher rate. To this point, most studies of Ae. aegypti populations ignore the spatial density of larval development sites. Methodology - Pupal surveys were carried out from 2004 to 2007 in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. In total, 84,840 samples of water holding containers were used to estimate model parameters. Regression modeling was used to assess the effect of larval development site density, access to piped water, and seasonal variation on container productivity. A varying-coefficients model was employed to account for the large differences in productivity between container types. A two-part modeling structure, called a hurdle model, accounts for the large number of zeroes and overdispersion present in pupal population counts. Findings - The number of suitable larval development sites and their density in the environment were the primary determinants of the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae. The productivity of most container types increased significantly as habitat density increased. An ecological approach, accounting for development site density, is appropriate for predicting Ae. aegypti population levels and developing efficient vector control program

Comparative evaluation of the Ifakara tent trap-B, the standardized resting boxes and the human landing catch for sampling malaria vectors and other mosquitoes in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Frequent, sensitive and accurate sampling of Anopheles mosquitoes is a prerequisite for effective management of malaria vector control programmes. The most reliable existing means to measure mosquito density is the human landing catch (HLC). However, the HLC technique raises major ethical concerns because of the necessity to expose humans to vectors of malaria and a variety of other pathogens. Furthermore, it is a very arduous undertaking that requires intense supervision, which is severely limiting in terms of affordability and sustainability.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud A community-based, mosquito sampling protocol, using the Ifakara tent trap-B (ITT-B) and standardized resting boxes (SRB), was developed and evaluated in terms of the number and sample composition of mosquitoes caught by each, compared to rigorously controlled HLC. Mosquitoes were collected once and three times every week by the HLC and the alternative methods, respectively, in the same time and location.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud Overall, the three traps caught 44,848 mosquitoes. The ITT-B, HLC and SRB caught 168, 143 and 46 Anopheles gambiae s.l. as well as 26,315, 13,258 and 4,791 Culex species respectively. The ITT-B was three- and five-times cheaper than the HLC per mosquito caught for An. gambiae and Cx. Species, respectively. Significant correlations between the numbers caught by HLC and ITT-B were observed for both An. gambiae s.l. (P < 0.001) and Cx. species (P = 0.003). Correlation between the catches with HLC and SRB were observed for Cx. species (P < 0.001) but not An. gambiae s.l. (P = 0.195), presumably because of the low density of the latter. Neither ITT-B nor SRB exhibited any obvious density dependence for sampling the two species.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud SRBs exhibited poor sensitivity for both mosquito taxa and are not recommended in this setting. However, this protocol is affordable and effective for routine use of the ITT-B under programmatic conditions. Nevertheless, it is recommended that the trap and the protocol be evaluated further at full programmatic scales to establish effectiveness under fully representative conditions of routine practice

The Extinction of Dengue through Natural Vulnerability of Its Vectors

Dengue transmission has not always been confined to tropical areas. In some cases, this has been due to a reduced geographic range of the mosquitoes that are able to carry dengue viruses. In Australia, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes once occurred throughout temperate, drier parts of the country but are now restricted to the wet tropics. We used a computer modelling approach to determine whether these mosquitoes could inhabit their former range. This was done by simulating dengue mosquito populations in virtual environments that experienced 10 years of actual daily weather conditions (1998–2007) obtained for 13 locations inside and outside the current tropical range. We discovered that in areas outside the Australian wet tropics, Ae. aegypti often becomes extinct, particularly when conditions are too cool for year-round egg-laying activity, and/or too dry for eggs to hatch. Thus, despite being a global pest and disease vector, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes are naturally vulnerable to extinction in certain conditions. Such vulnerability should be exploited in vector control programs

Complete Primate Skeleton from the Middle Eocene of Messel in Germany: Morphology and Paleobiology

The best European locality for complete Eocene mammal skeletons is Grube Messel, near Darmstadt, Germany. Although the site was surrounded by a para-tropical rain forest in the Eocene, primates are remarkably rare there, and only eight fragmentary specimens were known until now. Messel has now yielded a full primate skeleton. The specimen has an unusual history: it was privately collected and sold in two parts, with only the lesser part previously known. The second part, which has just come to light, shows the skeleton to be the most complete primate known in the fossil record.We describe the morphology and investigate the paleobiology of the skeleton. The specimen is described as Darwinius masillae n.gen. n.sp. belonging to the Cercamoniinae. Because the skeleton is lightly crushed and bones cannot be handled individually, imaging studies are of particular importance. Skull radiography shows a host of teeth developing within the juvenile face. Investigation of growth and proportion suggest that the individual was a weaned and independent-feeding female that died in her first year of life, and might have attained a body weight of 650-900 g had she lived to adulthood. She was an agile, nail-bearing, generalized arboreal quadruped living above the floor of the Messel rain forest.Darwinius masillae represents the most complete fossil primate ever found, including both skeleton, soft body outline and contents of the digestive tract. Study of all these features allows a fairly complete reconstruction of life history, locomotion, and diet. Any future study of Eocene-Oligocene primates should benefit from information preserved in the Darwinius holotype. Of particular importance to phylogenetic studies, the absence of a toilet claw and a toothcomb demonstrates that Darwinius masillae is not simply a fossil lemur, but part of a larger group of primates, Adapoidea, representative of the early haplorhine diversification

Malaria mosquito control using edible fish in western Kenya: preliminary findings of a controlled study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Biological control methods are once again being given much research focus for malaria vector control. This is largely due to the emerging threat of strong resistance to pesticides. Larvivorous fish have been used for over 100 years in mosquito control and many species have proved effective. In the western Kenyan highlands the larvivorous fish <it>Oreochromis niloticus </it>L. (Perciformes: Cichlidae) (formerly <it>Tilapia nilotica</it>) is commonly farmed and eaten but has not been previously tested in the field for malaria mosquito control.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This fish was introduced into abandoned fishponds at an altitude of 1,880 m and the effect measured over six months on the numbers of mosquito immatures. For comparison an untreated control pond was used. During this time, all ponds were regularly cleared of emergent vegetation and fish re-stocking was not needed. Significant autocorrelation was removed from the time series data, and t-tests were used to investigate within a pond and within a mosquito type any differences before and after the introduction of <it>O. niloticus</it>. Mulla's formula was also used on the raw data to calculate the percentage reduction of the mosquito larvae.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After <it>O. niloticus </it>introduction, mosquito densities immediately dropped in the treated ponds but increased in the control pond. This increase was apparently due to climatic factors. Mulla's formula was applied which corrects for that natural tendency to increase. The results showed that after 15 weeks the fish caused a more than 94% reduction in both <it>Anopheles gambiae s.l</it>. and <it>Anopheles funestus </it>(Diptera: Culicidae) in the treated ponds, and more than 75% reduction in culicine mosquitoes. There was a highly significantly reduction in <it>A. gambiae s.l</it>. numbers when compared to pre-treatment levels.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study reports the first field trial data on <it>O. niloticus </it>for malaria mosquito control and shows that this species, already a popular food fish in western Kenya, is an apparently sustainable mosquito control tool which also offers a source of protein and income to people in rural areas. There should be no problem with acceptance of this malaria control method since the local communities already farm this fish species.</p

The fitness for the Ageing Brain Study II (FABS II): protocol for a randomized controlled clinical trial evaluating the effect of physical activity on cognitive function in patients with Alzheimer's disease

Background: Observational studies have documented a potential protective effect of physical exercise in older adults who are at risk for developing Alzheimer's disease. The Fitness for the Ageing Brain II (FABS II) study is a multicentre randomized controlled clinical trial (RCT) aiming to determine whether physical activity reduces the rate of cognitive decline among individuals with Alzheimer's disease. This paper describes the background, objectives of the study, and an overview of the protocol including design, organization and data collection methods

Population Dynamics of Aedes aegypti and Dengue as Influenced by Weather and Human Behavior in San Juan, Puerto Rico

Previous studies on the influence of weather on Aedes aegypti dynamics in Puerto Rico suggested that rainfall was a significant driver of immature mosquito populations and dengue incidence, but mostly in the drier areas of the island. We conducted a longitudinal study of Ae. aegypti in two neighborhoods of the metropolitan area of San Juan city, Puerto Rico where rainfall is more uniformly distributed throughout the year. We assessed the impacts of rainfall, temperature, and human activities on the temporal dynamics of adult Ae. aegypti and oviposition. Changes in adult mosquitoes were monitored with BG-Sentinel traps and oviposition activity with CDC enhanced ovitraps. Pupal surveys were conducted during the drier and wetter parts of the year in both neighborhoods to determine the contribution of humans and rains to mosquito production. Mosquito dynamics in each neighborhood was compared with dengue incidence in their respective municipalities during the study. Our results showed that: 1. Most pupae were produced in containers managed by people, which explains the prevalence of adult mosquitoes at times when rainfall was scant; 2. Water meters were documented for the first time as productive habitats for Ae. aegypti; 3. Even though Puerto Rico has a reliable supply of tap water and an active tire recycling program, water storage containers and discarded tires were important mosquito producers; 4. Peaks in mosquito density preceded maximum dengue incidence; and 5. Ae. aegypti dynamics were driven by weather and human activity and oviposition was significantly correlated with dengue incidence

Temperature, Viral Genetics, and the Transmission of West Nile Virus by Culex pipiens Mosquitoes

The distribution and intensity of transmission of vector-borne pathogens can be strongly influenced by the competence of vectors. Vector competence, in turn, can be influenced by temperature and viral genetics. West Nile virus (WNV) was introduced into the United States of America in 1999 and subsequently spread throughout much of the Americas. Previously, we have shown that a novel genotype of WNV, WN02, first detected in 2001, spread across the US and was more efficient than the introduced genotype, NY99, at infecting, disseminating, and being transmitted by Culex mosquitoes. In the current study, we determined the relationship between temperature and time since feeding on the probability of transmitting each genotype of WNV. We found that the advantage of the WN02 genotype increases with the product of time and temperature. Thus, warmer temperatures would have facilitated the invasion of the WN02 genotype. In addition, we found that transmission of WNV accelerated sharply with increasing temperature, T, (best fit by a function of T4) showing that traditional degree-day models underestimate the impact of temperature on WNV transmission. This laboratory study suggests that both viral evolution and temperature help shape the distribution and intensity of transmission of WNV, and provides a model for predicting the impact of temperature and global warming on WNV transmission