Bayesian Conditioning, the Reflection Principle, and Quantum Decoherence

The probabilities a Bayesian agent assigns to a set of events typically change with time, for instance when the agent updates them in the light of new data. In this paper we address the question of how an agent's probabilities at different times are constrained by Dutch-book coherence. We review and attempt to clarify the argument that, although an agent is not forced by coherence to use the usual Bayesian conditioning rule to update his probabilities, coherence does require the agent's probabilities to satisfy van Fraassen's [1984] reflection principle (which entails a related constraint pointed out by Goldstein [1983]). We then exhibit the specialized assumption needed to recover Bayesian conditioning from an analogous reflection-style consideration. Bringing the argument to the context of quantum measurement theory, we show that "quantum decoherence" can be understood in purely personalist terms---quantum decoherence (as supposed in a von Neumann chain) is not a physical process at all, but an application of the reflection principle. From this point of view, the decoherence theory of Zeh, Zurek, and others as a story of quantum measurement has the plot turned exactly backward.Comment: 14 pages, written in memory of Itamar Pitowsk

Challenges of Profile Likelihood Evaluation in Multi-Dimensional SUSY Scans

Statistical inference of the fundamental parameters of supersymmetric theories is a challenging and active endeavor. Several sophisticated algorithms have been employed to this end. While Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques are geared towards Bayesian inference, they have also been used to estimate frequentist confidence intervals based on the profile likelihood ratio. We investigate the performance and appropriate configuration of MultiNest, a nested sampling based algorithm, when used for profile likelihood-based analyses both on toy models and on the parameter space of the Constrained MSSM. We find that while the standard configuration is appropriate for an accurate reconstruction of the Bayesian posterior, the profile likelihood is poorly approximated. We identify a more appropriate MultiNest configuration for profile likelihood analyses, which gives an excellent exploration of the profile likelihood (albeit at a larger computational cost), including the identification of the global maximum likelihood value. We conclude that with the appropriate configuration MultiNest is a suitable tool for profile likelihood studies, indicating previous claims to the contrary are not well founded.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, 1 table; minor changes following referee report. Matches version accepted by JHE

Russian Artistic Gymnastics as a Sports Tourism Product: Some Observations and a Research Agenda

Tourism and its importance to the Russian Federation are very much in the headlines at present. Considering the huge investment made in facilities for the Winter Olympics, the building of new sports facilities for such mega events as the Football World Cup, and the status of St Petersburg as a candidate city for the 2028 Olympics, it is clear that Russia has long term plans to attract visitors to their sporting events. The purpose of this paper is to develop a research agenda to explore the potential of artistic gymnastics, a sport in which the Russian Federation has excelled for many years, as an agent of tourism development. The paper will take a case study approach, considering the nature of fandom and identifying features of artistic gymnastics as cultural heritage and sports tourism product. The national and international environment within which it is set are examined, prior to the development of a research agenda. A detailed review of literature on the historic, current and emerging trends in Russian artistic gymnastics; the place of artistic gymnastics in tourism development and sports tourism in Russia will be carried out. The paper’s findings will include considerations of: • The nature of gymnastics fandom, both in Russia and internationally • The nature of sports tourism development in the Russian Federation • The nature of gymnastics as a sport and its competition cycle • Artistic gymnastics as cultural heritage, and its potential as an autonomous means of promoting Russian national identity • The relationship between Russia’s sometimes fading gymnastics competition results, and its potential to leverage the sport for tourism interest • The potential for tourism product development linked to artistic gymnastics in the Russian Federation. The paper contributes to the literature on the nature of sports tourism as it relates to artistic gymnastics in the Russian Federation in particular

On the Spectrum of Direct Gaugino Mediation

In direct gauge mediation, the gaugino masses are anomalously small, giving rise to a split SUSY spectrum. Here we investigate the superpartner spectrum in a minimal version of "direct gaugino mediation." We find that the sfermion masses are comparable to those of the gauginos - even in the hybrid gaugino-gauge mediation regime - if the messenger scale is sufficiently small.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures; V2: refs. adde

Success Factors of European Syndromic Surveillance Systems: A Worked Example of Applying Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Introduction: Syndromic surveillance aims at augmenting traditional public health surveillance with timely information. To gain a head start, it mainly analyses existing data such as from web searches or patient records. Despite the setup of many syndromic surveillance systems, there is still much doubt about the benefit of the approach. There are diverse interactions between performance indicators such as timeliness and various system characteristics. This makes the performance assessment of syndromic surveillance systems a complex endeavour. We assessed if the comparison of several syndromic surveillance systems through Qualitative Comparative Analysis helps to evaluate performance and identify key success factors. Materials and Methods: We compiled case-based, mixed data on performance and characteristics of 19 syndromic surveillance systems in Europe from scientific and grey literature and from site visits. We identified success factors by applying crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis. We focused on two main areas of syndromic surveillance application: seasonal influenza surveillance and situational awareness during different types of potentially health threatening events. Results: We found that syndromic surveillance systems might detect the onset or peak of seasonal influenza earlier if they analyse non-clinical data sources. Timely situational awareness during different types of events is supported by an automated syndromic surveillance system capable of analysing multiple syndromes. To our surprise, the analysis of multiple data sources was no key success factor for situational awareness. Conclusions: We suggest to consider these key success factors when designing or further developing syndromic surveillance systems. Qualitative Comparative Analysis helped interpreting complex, mixed data on small-N cases and resulted in concrete and practically relevant findings

Strings on Semisymmetric Superspaces

Several string backgrounds which arise in the AdS/CFT correspondence are described by integrable sigma-models. Their target space is always a Z(4) supercoset (a semi-symmetric superspace). Here we list all semi-symmetric cosets which have zero beta function and central charge c<=26 at one loop in perturbation theory.Comment: 25 pages, 1 figur

Habitat structure: a fundamental concept and framework for urban soil ecology

Habitat structure is defined as the composition and arrangement of physical matter at a location. Although habitat structure is the physical template underlying ecological patterns and processes, the concept is relatively unappreciated and underdeveloped in ecology. However, it provides a fundamental concept for urban ecology because human activities in urban ecosystems are often targeted toward management of habitat structure. In addition, the concept emphasizes the fine-scale, on-the-ground perspective needed in the study of urban soil ecology. To illustrate this, urban soil ecology research is summarized from the perspective of habitat structure effects. Among the key conclusions emerging from the literature review are: (1) habitat structure provides a unifying theme for multivariate research about urban soil ecology; (2) heterogeneous urban habitat structures influence soil ecological variables in different ways; (3) more research is needed to understand relationships among sociological variables, habitat structure patterns and urban soil ecology. To stimulate urban soil ecology research, a conceptual framework is presented to show the direct and indirect relationships among habitat structure and ecological variables. Because habitat structure serves as a physical link between sociocultural and ecological systems, it can be used as a focus for interdisciplinary and applied research (e.g., pest management) about the multiple, interactive effects of urbanization on the ecology of soils

Effect of Harmonicity on the Detection of a Signal in a Complex Masker and on Spatial Release from Masking

The amount of masking of sounds from one source (signals) by sounds from a competing source (maskers) heavily depends on the sound characteristics of the masker and the signal and on their relative spatial location. Numerous studies investigated the ability to detect a signal in a speech or a noise masker or the effect of spatial separation of signal and masker on the amount of masking, but there is a lack of studies investigating the combined effects of many cues on the masking as is typical for natural listening situations. The current study using free-field listening systematically evaluates the combined effects of harmonicity and inharmonicity cues in multi-tone maskers and cues resulting from spatial separation of target signal and masker on the detection of a pure tone in a multi-tone or a noise masker. A linear binaural processing model was implemented to predict the masked thresholds in order to estimate whether the observed thresholds can be accounted for by energetic masking in the auditory periphery or whether other effects are involved. Thresholds were determined for combinations of two target frequencies (1 and 8 kHz), two spatial configurations (masker and target either co-located or spatially separated by 90 degrees azimuth), and five different masker types (four complex multi-tone stimuli, one noise masker). A spatial separation of target and masker resulted in a release from masking for all masker types. The amount of masking significantly depended on the masker type and frequency range. The various harmonic and inharmonic relations between target and masker or between components of the masker resulted in a complex pattern of increased or decreased masked thresholds in comparison to the predicted energetic masking. The results indicate that harmonicity cues affect the detectability of a tonal target in a complex masker

From DNA sequence to application: possibilities and complications

The development of sophisticated genetic tools during the past 15 years have facilitated a tremendous increase of fundamental and application-oriented knowledge of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) and their bacteriophages. This knowledge relates both to the assignments of open reading frames (ORF’s) and the function of non-coding DNA sequences. Comparison of the complete nucleotide sequences of several LAB bacteriophages has revealed that their chromosomes have a fixed, modular structure, each module having a set of genes involved in a specific phase of the bacteriophage life cycle. LAB bacteriophage genes and DNA sequences have been used for the construction of temperature-inducible gene expression systems, gene-integration systems, and bacteriophage defence systems. The function of several LAB open reading frames and transcriptional units have been identified and characterized in detail. Many of these could find practical applications, such as induced lysis of LAB to enhance cheese ripening and re-routing of carbon fluxes for the production of a specific amino acid enantiomer. More knowledge has also become available concerning the function and structure of non-coding DNA positioned at or in the vicinity of promoters. In several cases the mRNA produced from this DNA contains a transcriptional terminator-antiterminator pair, in which the antiterminator can be stabilized either by uncharged tRNA or by interaction with a regulatory protein, thus preventing formation of the terminator so that mRNA elongation can proceed. Evidence has accumulated showing that also in LAB carbon catabolite repression in LAB is mediated by specific DNA elements in the vicinity of promoters governing the transcription of catabolic operons. Although some biological barriers have yet to be solved, the vast body of scientific information presently available allows the construction of tailor-made genetically modified LAB. Today, it appears that societal constraints rather than biological hurdles impede the use of genetically modified LAB.

Relationships among neurocognition, symptoms and functioning in patients with schizophrenia: a path-analytic approach for associations at baseline and following 24 weeks of antipsychotic drug therapy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Neurocognitive impairment and psychiatric symptoms have been associated with deficits in psychosocial and occupational functioning in patients with schizophrenia. This post-hoc analysis evaluates the relationships among cognition, psychopathology, and psychosocial functioning in patients with schizophrenia at baseline and following sustained treatment with antipsychotic drugs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were obtained from a clinical trial assessing the cognitive effects of selected antipsychotic drugs in patients with schizophrenia. Patients were randomly assigned to 24 weeks of treatment with olanzapine (n = 159), risperidone (n = 158), or haloperidol (n = 97). Psychosocial functioning was assessed with the Heinrichs-Carpenter Quality of Life Scale [QLS], cognition with a standard battery of neurocognitive tests; and psychiatric symptoms with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale [PANSS]. A path-analytic approach was used to evaluate the effects of changes in cognitive functioning on subdomains of quality of life, and to determine whether such effects were direct or mediated via changes in psychiatric symptoms.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At baseline, processing speed affected functioning mainly indirectly via negative symptoms. Positive symptoms also affected functioning at baseline although independent of cognition. At 24 weeks, changes in processing speed affected changes in functioning both directly and indirectly via PANSS negative subscale scores. Positive symptoms no longer contributed to the path-analytic models. Although a consistent relationship was observed between processing speed and the 3 functional domains, variation existed as to whether the paths were direct and/or indirect. Working memory and verbal memory did not significantly contribute to any of the path-analytic models studied.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Processing speed demonstrated direct and indirect effects via negative symptoms on three domains of functioning as measured by the QLS at baseline and following 24 weeks of antipsychotic treatment.</p