History suggests that Norway is in line for a change of government in September’s elections.

Norway is due to hold parliamentary elections in September. Sveinung Arnesen looks ahead to the elections, arguing that the cost of ruling is taking its toll on the governing centre-left coalition. Despite the country’s oil-rich economy, evidence suggests that the incumbent government is still likely to lose support. He concludes that the stage is set for a centre-right government to come into power in September, unless they stumble like they did in the last elections four years ago

Following Monday’s elections, Norway has taken a firm step to the right

On Monday, Norway held parliamentary elections, with the Conservative Party’s Erna Solberg winning enough support to take over as the country’s next Prime Minister. Sveinung Arnesen assesses the results of the election, noting that the new centre/right coalition that emerges from negotiations will be far more diverse than previous governments. The main challenge for the new government will be keeping this coalition together over the next four years

The problem of feedback loops: do opinion polls reinforce popular views?

Opinion polls are a vital tool for understanding what the public wants from its political representatives, but is there a danger that poll results can influence the views of citizens? As Sveinung Arnesen writes, one of the potential issues with polling is that people may change their attitudes after learning what others think. A disconcerting possibility is that opinion polls create feedback loops, wherein the majority opinion becomes increasingly larger over time. Drawing on a new study of attitudes toward Syrian refugees and mandatory measles vaccination, he illustrates that this concern may be unwarranted

Election reaction: Norway's government secures a fragile second term

Norway's government, led by Erna Solberg, is set to remain in power following the country's parliamentary election on 11 September. Although the Norwegian Labour Party emerged with the largest number of seats, it lost support in the latter stages of the campaign and fell short of the mark required to regain control of the government. Sveinung Arnesen reacts to the result, noting that the main consequence of the election is that power has shifted from the executive to the legislature, with the Conservative Party and Progress Party aiming for four more years without solid majority support in parliament

How to be Gracious about Political Loss—The Importance of Good Loser Messages in Policy Controversies

Accepting defeat in political decision-making is crucial for the health of democracies. At the same time, being a good loser is challenging. How can citizens be motivated to be gracious about various types of political loss? In this paper, we study whether political leaders can play an important role in boosting the perceived quality of decision-making processes among losers in policy conflicts. We propose and test the impact of a simple intervention post-decision: good loser messages delivered by co-partisan leaders that remind citizens about the rules of the game. Three survey experiments on probability samples of the Norwegian and Swedish population (total n = 4700) show that good loser messages can indeed boost the process evaluations of policy losers. These findings emphasize the potential of procedural messaging to build loser’s consent between elections.publishedVersio

How to be Gracious about Political Loss - The Importance of Good Loser Messages in Policy Controversies

Accepting defeat in political decision-making is crucial for the health of democracies. At the same time, being a good loser is challenging. How can citizens be motivated to be gracious about various types of political loss? In this paper, we study whether political leaders can play an important role in boosting the perceived quality of decision-making processes among losers in policy conflicts. We propose and test the impact of a simple intervention post-decision: good loser messages delivered by co-partisan leaders that remind citizens about the rules of the game. Three survey experiments on probability samples of the Norwegian and Swedish population (total n = 4700) show that good loser messages can indeed boost the process evaluations of policy losers. These findings emphasize the potential of procedural messaging to build loser’s consent between elections

Do Polls Influence Opinions? Investigating Poll Feedback Loops Using the Novel Dynamic Response Feedback Experimental Procedure

Opinion polls may inadvertently affect public opinion, as people may change their attitudes after learning what others think. A disconcerting possibility is that opinion polls have the ability to create information cascades, wherein the majority opinion becomes increasingly larger over time. Testing poll influence on attitudes toward Syrian refugees and mandatory measles vaccination, we field survey experiments on a probability-based online survey panel. Through a novel automated procedure labeled the dynamic response feedback, we measure whether the answers from early poll respondents can influence the opinions of subsequent respondents who learn the answers of the previous respondents. Using this procedure, no feedback loops are identified.publishedVersio

Do citizens make inferences from political candidate characteristics when aiming for substantive representation?

We elicit citizens' preferences over hypothetical candidates by applying conjoint survey experiments within a probability-based online panel of the Norwegian electorate. Our experimental treatments differ in whether citizens receive information about candidates' social characteristics only, candidates' issue positions only, or both. From this, we identify whether citizens are able to infer substantive policy positions from the descriptive characteristics of potential representatives and use that information to make candidate choices that achieve substantive representation. We find that candidate choice is driven more by knowledge about candidates' issue positions than by knowledge about their social characteristics and that citizens value substantive representation more robustly than descriptive representation. Importantly, while the direct experimental test of whether voters use the information they obtain from descriptive markers to choose a candidate that gives them substantive representation is inconclusive, we find that voters form beliefs about candidates' issue positions based solely on candidates’ social characteristics

Beyond the myth of legality? Framing effects and public reactions to high court decisions in Europe

How do people respond to different decision-making processes in high courts? One long-standing view suggests that citizens expect courts to be neutral arbiters of legal controversies. Although the relevance of such “myth of legality” has been challenged, we know very little about the relationship between the portrayals of the motives of courts and justices and public attitudes in civil law countries. We explore this question in a pair of experiments in Norway and Portugal where we isolate the effects of different institutional frames from outcome favorability. We find that while partisan frames are detrimental to fairness perceptions and acceptance of decisions, depictions of judicial decision-making that emphasize policy goals do not adversely affect citizens’ responses in comparison with legalistic frames. The results suggest that, even in civil law systems, preserving the myth of legality may not be a necessary condition to elicit public support for judicial decisions

Hvordan gjennomføre borgerpanel

Med denne håndboken ønsker vi å øke oppmerksomheten om borgerpaneler og være til inspirasjon for lesere som vurderer å gjennomføre et borgerpanel selv. Den er også sluttproduktet til forskningsprosjektet «Demokratisk innovasjon i praksis: Forskning på medvirkning og legitimitet i kommunale beslutningsprosesser (DEMOVATE)». Prosjektet har blitt ledet av Bergen kommune, mens forskningsinstituttet NORCE har hatt den faglige ledelsen. Håndboken baserer seg på erfaringer gjort i DEMOVATE og i forskningsaktiviteter knyttet til demokratisk innovasjon ved Universitetet i Bergen, Stanford University og NORCE. Håndbokens målgruppe er alle som er interessert i det norske demokratiet. Vi håper den kan komme til nytte for politikere, byråkrater, personer som engasjerer seg i sivilsamfunnet, og alle andre som er nysgjerrige på borgerpaneler, og som kanskje går med tanker om å sette i stand et selv. Boken er strukturert i tre deler. Den første delen tar et overordnet blikk på borgerpaneler, hva som definerer dem, og hvordan de blir brukt inn i den demokratiske beslutningsprosessen. Den andre delen løfter frem praktiske problemstillinger man må ta hensyn til under planlegging av borgerpaneler. Rådene baserer seg på tre borgerpaneler som artikkelforfatterne selv har gjennomført. Den tredje og siste delen bringer inn flere erfaringer fra andre kommuner. Vi får også innblikk i hvordan borgerpaneler og medvirkning generelt oppfattes av en ansatt i kommuneadministrasjonen