The Variation of Solar Fe 14 and Fe 10 Flux over 1.5 Solar Activity Cycles

A new source of data on the solar output, namely limb flux from the one- and two-million degree corona is presented. This parameter is derived from data obtained at the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak with the 40 cm coronagraph of the John W. Evans Solar Facility and the Emission Line Coronal Photometer. The limb flux is defined to be the latitude-averaged intensity in millionths of the brightness of disk center from an annulus of width 1.1 minutes centered at a height of 0.15 solar constant above the limb of emission from lines at 6374A (Fe X) or 5303A (Fe XIV). Fe XIV data have been obtained since 1973 and Fe X since 1984. Examination of the Fe XIV data shows that there is ambiguity in the definition of the last two solar activity minima, which can affect the determination of cycle rise times and lengths. There is an indication that a constant minimum or basal corona may exist at solar minimum. Cycle 22 has had a much faster onset than Cycle 21 and has now overtaken Cycle 21. The rise characteristics of the two cycles were very similar up until Jul. to Aug. 1989, at which time a long-term maximum occurred in Fe X and Fe XIV, which could possibly be the solar maximum. Another maximum is developing at the current time. Cycle 21 was characterized in Fe XIV by at least 4 major thrusts or bursts of activity, each lasting on the order of a year and all having similar maximum limb fluxes which indicates that coronal energy output is sustained over periods in which the sunspot number declines significantly. Dramatic increases in the limb fluxes occur from minimum to maximum, ranging from factors of 14 to 21 in the two lines. Two different techniques to predict the epoch of solar maximum have been applied to the Fe XIV data, resulting in estimates of April 1989 (plus or minus 1 mo) and May 1990 (plus or minus 2 mos)

Coronal Fe XIV Emission During the Whole Heliosphere Interval Campaign

Solar Cycle 24 is having a historically long and weak start. Observations of the Fe XIV corona from the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar Observatory show an abnormal pattern of emission compared to observations of Cycles 21, 22, and 23 from the same instrument. The previous three cycles have shown a strong, rapid "Rush to the Poles" (previously observed in polar crown prominences and earlier coronal observations) in the parameter N(t,l,dt) (average number of Fe XIV emission features per day over dt days at time t and latitude l). Cycle 24 displays a weak, intermittent, and slow "Rush" that is apparent only in the northern hemisphere. If the northern Rush persists at its current rate, evidence from the Rushes in previous cycles indicates that solar maximum will occur in early 2013 or late 2012, at least in the northern hemisphere. At lower latitudes, solar maximum previously occurred when the time maximum of N(t,l,365) reached approximately 20{\deg} latitude. Currently, this parameter is at or below 30{\deg}and decreasing in latitude. Unfortunately, it is difficult at this time to calculate the rate of decrease in N(t,l,365). However, the southern hemisphere could reach 20{\deg} in 2011. Nonetheless, considering the levels of activity so far, there is a possibility that the maximum could be indiscernibleComment: 8 pages, 4 figures; Solar Physics Online First, 2011 http://www.springerlink.com/content/b5kl4040k0626647

Modelling Correlations in Portfolio Credit Risk

The risk of a credit portfolio depends crucially on correlations between the probability of default (PD) in different economic sectors. Often, PD correlations have to be estimated from relatively short time series of default rates, and the resulting estimation error hinders the detection of a signal. We present statistical evidence that PD correlations are well described by a (one-)factorial model. We suggest a method of parameter estimation which avoids in a controlled way the underestimation of correlation risk. Empirical evidence is presented that, in the framework of the CreditRisk+ model with integrated correlations, this method leads to an increased reliability of the economic capital estimate.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Coronal transients in FE XIV 5303A: First two-dimensional photoelectric ground-based observations

An observational program was undertaken at Sacramento Peak Observatory to photoelectrically detect coronal transients. Continuous observations are made in the Fe XIV 5303A green line, utilizing the 40 cm coronagraph and the Photoelectric Coronal Photometer. Scans at three heights above the limb are combined to form a low resolution picture of the greenline corona every 20 to 30 minutes. Difference pictures, relative to an initial scan, are generated to search for sudden changes in the corona. The first few days of operation of this program have yielded three low-lying events ( 1.55 solar radii) following minor chromospheric activity (a surge and eruptive prominences), which propagated up through the corona with velocities on the order of 100 km/s

The mechanics of stochastic slowdown in evolutionary games

We study the stochastic dynamics of evolutionary games, and focus on the so-called `stochastic slowdown' effect, previously observed in (Altrock et. al, 2010) for simple evolutionary dynamics. Slowdown here refers to the fact that a beneficial mutation may take longer to fixate than a neutral one. More precisely, the fixation time conditioned on the mutant taking over can show a maximum at intermediate selection strength. We show that this phenomenon is present in the prisoner's dilemma, and also discuss counterintuitive slowdown and speedup in coexistence games. In order to establish the microscopic origins of these phenomena, we calculate the average sojourn times. This allows us to identify the transient states which contribute most to the slowdown effect, and enables us to provide an understanding of slowdown in the takeover of a small group of cooperators by defectors: Defection spreads quickly initially, but the final steps to takeover can be delayed substantially. The analysis of coexistence games reveals even more intricate behavior. In small populations, the conditional average fixation time can show multiple extrema as a function of the selection strength, e.g., slowdown, speedup, and slowdown again. We classify two-player games with respect to the possibility to observe non-monotonic behavior of the conditional average fixation time as a function of selection strength.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Journal of Theoretical Biology. Includes changes after peer revie

The Sonic Sacrament: An Emerging Sacramental Theology of Music in Contemporary Evangelical Churches

This essay contends that in contemporary liturgies, a sonic sacrament of Eucharist is emerging through the medium of contemporary worship music. After laying out a theology of worship, sacrament, and participation, the article examines three major churches in Los Angeles: Hillsong LA, Mosaic LA, and Reality LA, and analyzes their liturgical practice. Based on this analysis, the author contends that American churches are exchanging the traditional sacrament of Eucharist with Contemporary Worship Music. The remainder of the article considers the implications of this shift

The evolution of strategic timing in collective-risk dilemmas

In collective-risk dilemmas, a group needs to collaborate over time to avoid a catastrophic event. This gives rise to a coordination game with many equilibria, including equilibria where no one contributes, and thus no measures against the catastrophe are taken. In this game, the timing of contributions becomes a strategic variable that allows individuals to interact and influence one another. Herein, we use evolutionary game theory to study the impact of strategic timing on equilibrium selection. Depending on the risk of catastrophe, we identify three characteristic regimes. For low risks, defection is the only equilibrium, whereas high risks promote equilibria with sufficient contributions. Intermediate risks pose the biggest challenge for cooperation. In this risk regime, the option to interact over time is critical; if individuals can contribute over several rounds, then the group has a higher chance to succeed, and the expected welfare increases. This positive effect of timing is of particular importance in larger groups, where successful coordination becomes increasingly difficul

Aspiration Dynamics of Multi-player Games in Finite Populations

Studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their payoffs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long standing history in evolutionary game and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore a strategy favored under imitation dynamics can be disfavored under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics