Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops

We extend the sudden stops literature by allowing crisis episodes to be caused by either the retreat of global investors, as is assumed but not shown in the extant literature, or the sudden flight of local investors. We find that almost half of the previously defined sudden stops are actually episodes of sudden flight. Compared to sudden flight, true sudden stops are bunched and are associated with greater slowdowns in economic activity and sharper currency depreciations. We show that the empirical regularities of sudden flight and true sudden stops are consistent with theoretical models that incorporate gross capital flows and information asymmetries.international capital flows, capital flight, emerging market crises

Reforming Policies for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Indonesia

Including micro firms, SMEs are responsible for more than 97 percent of total employment in Indonesia and represent 99 percent of all firms. The Indonesian government has tried to assist SMEs through programmes, such as subsidised credit, one-stop shops to lower business registration costs and government-sponsored trade fairs. However, there is little evidence on how effective these programmes are or on ways to improve government policies aimed at helping SMEs. We conducted structured interviews with 192 firms across five provinces in Indonesia to investigate the constraints that firms face and how existing programmes do – or do not – help reduce these constraints. We conclude the report with policy recommendations targeted at the Indonesian government and other stakeholders, focusing on the importance of credit and on the need to remove information barriers

The SPectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN): an instrument to investigate ice nucleation

The SPectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN) is a commercially available ice nucleating particle (INP) counter manufactured by Droplet Measurement Technologies in Boulder, CO. The SPIN is a continuous flow diffusion chamber with parallel plate geometry based on the Zurich Ice Nucleation Chamber and the Portable Ice Nucleation Chamber. This study presents a standard description for using the SPIN instrument and also highlights methods to analyze measurements in more advanced ways. It characterizes and describes the behavior of the SPIN chamber, reports data from laboratory measurements, and quantifies uncertainties associated with the measurements. Experiments with ammonium sulfate are used to investigate homogeneous freezing of deliquesced haze droplets and droplet breakthrough. Experiments with kaolinite, NX illite, and silver iodide are used to investigate heterogeneous ice nucleation. SPIN nucleation results are compared to those from the literature. A machine learning approach for analyzing depolarization data from the SPIN optical particle counter is also presented (as an advanced use). Overall, we report that the SPIN is able to reproduce previous INP counter measurements

Stochastic Cytokine Expression Induces Mixed T Helper Cell States

During eukaryotic development, the induction of a lineage-specific transcription factor typically drives differentiation of multipotent progenitor cells, while repressing that of alternative lineages. This process is often mediated by some extracellular signaling molecules, such as cytokines that can bind to cell surface receptors, leading to activation and/or repression of transcription factors. We explored the early differentiation of naive CD4 T helper (Th) cells into Th1 versus Th2 states by counting single transcripts and quantifying immunofluorescence in individual cells. Contrary to mutually exclusive expression of antagonistic transcription factors, we observed their ubiquitous co-expression in individual cells at high levels that are distinct from basal-level co-expression during lineage priming. We observed that cytokines are expressed only in a small subpopulation of cells, independent from the expression of transcription factors in these single cells. This cell-to-cell variation in the cytokine expression during the early phase of T helper cell differentiation is significantly larger than in the fully differentiated state. Upon inhibition of cytokine signaling, we observed the classic mutual exclusion of antagonistic transcription factors, thus revealing a weak intracellular network otherwise overruled by the strong signals that emanate from extracellular cytokines. These results suggest that during the early differentiation process CD4 T cells acquire a mixed Th1/Th2 state, instructed by extracellular cytokines. The interplay between extracellular and intracellular signaling components unveiled in Th1/Th2 differentiation may be a common strategy for mammalian cells to buffer against noisy cytokine expression.National Cancer Institute (U.S.). Physical Sciences-Oncology Center (U54CA143874)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Pioneer Award)National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant R01-GM068957

Twin and family studies reveal strong environmental and weaker genetic cues explaining heritability of eosinophilic esophagitis

Eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is a chronic antigen-driven allergic inflammatory disease, likely involving the interplay of genetic and environmental factors, yet their respective contributions to heritability are unknown

The seeds of divergence: the economy of French North America, 1688 to 1760

Generally, Canada has been ignored in the literature on the colonial origins of divergence with most of the attention going to the United States. Late nineteenth century estimates of income per capita show that Canada was relatively poorer than the United States and that within Canada, the French and Catholic population of Quebec was considerably poorer. Was this gap long standing? Some evidence has been advanced for earlier periods, but it is quite limited and not well-suited for comparison with other societies. This thesis aims to contribute both to Canadian economic history and to comparative work on inequality across nations during the early modern period. With the use of novel prices and wages from Quebec—which was then the largest settlement in Canada and under French rule—a price index, a series of real wages and a measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are constructed. They are used to shed light both on the course of economic development until the French were defeated by the British in 1760 and on standards of living in that colony relative to the mother country, France, as well as the American colonies. The work is divided into three components. The first component relates to the construction of a price index. The absence of such an index has been a thorn in the side of Canadian historians as it has limited the ability of historians to obtain real values of wages, output and living standards. This index shows that prices did not follow any trend and remained at a stable level. However, there were episodes of wide swings—mostly due to wars and the monetary experiment of playing card money. The creation of this index lays the foundation of the next component. The second component constructs a standardized real wage series in the form of welfare ratios (a consumption basket divided by nominal wage rate multiplied by length of work year) to compare Canada with France, England and Colonial America. Two measures are derived. The first relies on a “bare bones” definition of consumption with a large share of land-intensive goods. This measure indicates that Canada was poorer than England and Colonial America and not appreciably richer than France. However, this measure overestimates the relative position of Canada to the Old World because of the strong presence of land-intensive goods. A second measure is created using a “respectable” definition of consumption in which the basket includes a larger share of manufactured goods and capital-intensive goods. This second basket better reflects differences in living standards since the abundance of land in Canada (and Colonial America) made it easy to achieve bare subsistence, but the scarcity of capital and skilled labor made the consumption of luxuries and manufactured goods (clothing, lighting, imported goods) highly expensive. With this measure, the advantage of New France over France evaporates and turns slightly negative. In comparison with Britain and Colonial America, the gap widens appreciably. This element is the most important for future research. By showing a reversal because of a shift to a different type of basket, it shows that Old World and New World comparisons are very sensitive to how we measure the cost of living. Furthermore, there are no sustained improvements in living standards over the period regardless of the measure used. Gaps in living standards observed later in the nineteenth century existed as far back as the seventeenth century. In a wider American perspective that includes the Spanish colonies, Canada fares better. The third component computes a new series for Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is to avoid problems associated with using real wages in the form of welfare ratios which assume a constant labor supply. This assumption is hard to defend in the case of Colonial Canada as there were many signs of increasing industriousness during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. The GDP series suggest no long-run trend in living standards (from 1688 to circa 1765). The long peace era of 1713 to 1740 was marked by modest economic growth which offset a steady decline that had started in 1688, but by 1760 (as a result of constant warfare) living standards had sunk below their 1688 levels. These developments are accompanied by observations that suggest that other indicators of living standard declined. The flat-lining of incomes is accompanied by substantial increases in the amount of time worked, rising mortality and rising infant mortality. In addition, comparisons of incomes with the American colonies confirm the results obtained with wages— Canada was considerably poorer. At the end, a long conclusion is provides an exploratory discussion of why Canada would have diverged early on. In structural terms, it is argued that the French colony was plagued by the problem of a small population which prohibited the existence of scale effects. In combination with the fact that it was dispersed throughout the territory, the small population of New France limited the scope for specialization and economies of scale. However, this problem was in part created, and in part aggravated, by institutional factors like seigneurial tenure. The colonial origins of French America’s divergence from the rest of North America are thus partly institutional

Skill Transferability, Migration, and Development: Evidence From Population Resettlement in Indonesia

We use a natural experiment in Indonesia to provide causal evidence on the role of location-specific human capital and skill transferability in shaping the spatial distribution of productivity. From 1979–1988, the Transmigration Program relocated two million migrants from rural Java and Bali to new rural settlements in the Outer Islands. Villages assigned migrants from regions with more similar agroclimatic endowments exhibit higher rice productivity and nighttime light intensity one to two decades later. We find some evidence of migrants’ adaptation to agroclimatic change. Overall, our results suggest that regional productivity differences may overstate the potential gains from migration. (JEL J24, J43, J61, O13, O15, Q13, R23

Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries

This paper examines the current thinking on exchange-rate pass-through to both import prices and consumer prices and estimates the extent to which they have fallen in the G-7 countries since the late 1970s and 1980s. For import-price pass-through we find that all countries experience a numerical decline in the responsiveness of import prices to exchange-rate movements; for nearly half of these countries the decline between 1975-1989 and 1990-2004 is statistically significant. We estimate that while a 10 percent depreciation in the local currency would have increased import prices by nearly 7 percent on average across these countries in the late 1970s and 1980s, it would have only increased import prices by 4 percent in the last 15 years. The responsiveness of consumer prices to exchange-rate movements declines for nearly every country, with the decline being statistically significant for two countries. Specifically, while a 10 percent depreciation in the local currency would have increased consumer prices by almost 2 percent on average in the late 1970s and 1980s, it would have had a neutral effect on consumer prices in the last 15 years.Foreign exchange rates ; Pricing ; Group of Seven countries