Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

© The Authors, 2009. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License. The definitive version was published in Estuaries and Coasts 33 (2010): 15-29, doi:10.1007/s12237-009-9244-y.Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales.This study was supported by the US Geological Survey’s Priority Ecosystems Science program, CALFED Bay/ Delta Program, and the University of California Center for Water Resources

Dynamics of Wind Setdown at Suez and the Eastern Nile Delta

BACKGROUND: Wind setdown is the drop in water level caused by wind stress acting on the surface of a body of water for an extended period of time. As the wind blows, water recedes from the upwind shore and exposes terrain that was formerly underwater. Previous researchers have suggested wind setdown as a possible hydrodynamic explanation for Moses crossing the Red Sea, as described in Exodus 14. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This study analyzes the hydrodynamic mechanism proposed by earlier studies, focusing on the time needed to reach a steady-state solution. In addition, the authors investigate a site in the eastern Nile delta, where the ancient Pelusiac branch of the Nile once flowed into a coastal lagoon then known as the Lake of Tanis. We conduct a satellite and modeling survey to analyze this location, using geological evidence of the ancient bathymetry and a historical description of a strong wind event in 1882. A suite of model experiments are performed to demonstrate a new hydrodynamic mechanism that can cause an angular body of water to divide under wind stress, and to test the behavior of our study location and reconstructed topography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Under a uniform 28 m/s easterly wind forcing in the reconstructed model basin, the ocean model produces an area of exposed mud flats where the river mouth opens into the lake. This land bridge is 3-4 km long and 5 km wide, and it remains open for 4 hours. Model results indicate that navigation in shallow-water harbors can be significantly curtailed by wind setdown when strong winds blow offshore

Adaptive Significance of the Formation of Multi-Species Fish Spawning Aggregations near Submerged Capes

BACKGROUND: Many fishes are known to spawn at distinct geomorphological features such as submerged capes or "promontories," and the widespread use of these sites for spawning must imply some evolutionary advantage. Spawning at these capes is thought to result in rapid offshore transport of eggs, thereby reducing predation levels and facilitating dispersal to areas of suitable habitat. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To test this "off-reef transport" hypothesis, we use a hydrodynamic model and explore the effects of topography on currents at submerged capes where spawning occurs and at similar capes where spawning does not occur, along the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef. All capes modeled in this study produced eddy-shedding regimes, but specific eddy attributes differed between spawning and non-spawning sites. Eddies at spawning sites were significantly stronger than those at non-spawning sites, and upwelling and fronts were the products of the eddy formation process. Frontal zones, present particularly at the edges of eddies near the shelf, may serve to retain larvae and nutrients. Spawning site eddies were also more predictable in terms of diameter and longevity. Passive particles released at spawning and control sites were dispersed from the release site at similar rates, but particles from spawning sites were more highly aggregated in their distributions than those from control sites, and remained closer to shore at all times. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings contradict previous hypotheses that cape spawning leads to high egg dispersion due to offshore transport, and that they are attractive for spawning due to high, variable currents. Rather, we show that current regimes at spawning sites are more predictable, concentrate the eggs, and keep larvae closer to shore. These attributes would confer evolutionary advantages by maintaining relatively similar recruitment patterns year after year

Model-Derived Dispersal Pathways from Multiple Source Populations Explain Variability of Invertebrate Larval Supply

Background: Predicting the spatial and temporal patterns of marine larval dispersal and supply is a challenging task due to the small size of the larvae and the variability of oceanographic processes. Addressing this problem requires the use of novel approaches capable of capturing the inherent variability in the mechanisms involved. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this study we test whether dispersal and connectivity patterns generated from a biophysical model of larval dispersal of the crab Carcinus maenas, along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, can predict the highly variable daily pattern of wind-driven larval supply to an estuary observed during the peak reproductive season (March–June) in 2006 and 2007. Cross-correlations between observed and predicted supply were significant (p,0.05) and strong, ranging from 0.34 to 0.81 at time lags of 26 to+5 d. Importantly, the model correctly predicted observed cross-shelf distributions (Pearson r = 0.82, p,0.001, and r = 0.79, p,0.01, in 2006 and 2007) and indicated that all supply events were comprised of larvae that had been retained within the inner shelf; larvae transported to the outer shelf and beyond never recruited. Estimated average dispersal distances ranged from 57 to 198 km and were only marginally affected by mortality. Conclusions/Significance: The high degree of predicted demographic connectivity over relatively large geographic scales is consistent with the lack of genetic structuring in C. maenas along the Iberian Peninsula. These findings indicate that the dynamic nature of larval dispersal can be captured by mechanistic biophysical models, which can be used to provid