Application of Load/Unload Response Ratio Seismogenic Integral in Earthquake Prediction in Xinjiang

本文首先利用加卸载响应比孕震积分,对2001年以来新疆境内南天山西段和喀什—乌恰交汇区发生的4次M_S≥6.0地震,进行了震例检验。结果显示,孕震初期孕震积分在背景值附近波动,变化平缓。随着孕震程度的加剧,孕震积分不断增加至峰值点,快速回落过程中或恢复后发震。我们还将加卸载响应比孕震积分初步应用到南天山西段的部分定点形变资料中,对比分析了哈拉峻台、乌恰台钻孔倾斜以及乌什水管仪、伸缩仪和体应变趋势日均值与以台站为中心,250km为半径的加卸载响应比孕震积分时序图。结果表明,① 哈拉峻台和乌恰台区域内构造应力场应力处于不断加载的过程,引起了定点形变资料速率的大幅度、不稳定变化; ② 当构造应力场上的应力处于缓慢不断加载的过程时,会引起定点形变测项速率方向发生改变,表现形式为趋势异常;③ 目前,南天山西段构造应力场应力水平处于不断加载的过程

新疆地区2000~2012年加卸载响应比时空演化特征分析

对新疆地区进行了加卸载响应比的时空扫描计算,考察了研究区2000~2012年期间加卸载响应比异常区域的时空演化特征,利用孕震积分定量统计了新疆地区5级以上地震与LURR的时空关系;并用2011~2012年的扫描结果与次年实际发生的5级以上地震进行对比,发现绝大部分的中强地震都发生在前1年的预测区域内。基于加卸载响应比的时空扫描结果,分别对2011~2012年发生的4个6级地震进行了孕震积分时程曲线分析,结果显示,实际地震发生之前几个月孕震积分均会达到峰值,并在高值波动过程中或高值回落后发震

Test and Analysis of the Spatio-temporal Evolution of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before Moderate Earthquakes in Xinjiang

加卸载响应比是一种刻画震源区介质损伤程度的物理学参数,它通过随时间的变化来反映地震孕育的过程来进行地震预测。通过对1990-1999年新疆地区部分中强地震前加卸载响应比时空演化特征进行分析,并基于该理论得到孕震积分的概念应用于震例中。结果表明:中强震震前在震中附近可能存在多个高加卸载响应比值区,它们大致围成椭圆状或环状,地震通常发生在异常高值波动或减弱的过程中;异常峰值至发震时间比理论时间要短,这可能表明新疆地区构造活动剧烈,孕震周期较短

新疆喀什-乌恰交汇区潮汐触发地震活动的统计检验/A statistical analysis on tidal triggering of the earthquake in the Kashi-Wuqia intersection area, Xinjiang[J]

基于Schuster检验及Permutation检验方法,对喀什-乌恰交汇区地震活动受固体潮触发情况进行日尺度及月尺度检验.其中日尺度分别选取引潮力南北分量、东西分量及潮汐体应力作为潮汐曲线.研究结果显示,该地区地震活动均较多的发生于3种潮汐的最大值(相位0°)附近,优势发震相位分别为-5.86°、6.60°以及-15.52°,且发生地震的频次随潮汐力的增大而增加;利用3种潮汐曲线(引潮力日尺度南北分量、东西分量以及潮汐体应力)对所有地震进行Schuster检验所得Ps值分别为10.52％、2.40％以及2.06％,Permutation检验所得PP值分别为10.90％、2.40％以及2.06％,其中基于引潮力东西分量及潮汐体应力的Ps、Pp值均低于潮汐触发地震的阈值0.05.月尺度Schuster检验Ps值及Permutation检验Pp值结果均非常小(接近于0),远低于潮汐触发地震阈值0.05,优势发震相位φ为-1.91°,较为接近月尺度下的固体潮最大值0°(即农历朔、望).对潮汐触发地震的统计学检验结果即东西向潮汐触发效应大于南北向触发效应的原因进行了初步解释

JUNO Sensitivity on Proton Decay p→νˉK+p\to \bar\nu K^+ Searches

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this paper, the potential on searching for proton decay in $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated.The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits to suppress the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar\nu K^+$ is 36.9% with a background level of 0.2 events after 10 years of data taking. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel

JUNO sensitivity on proton decay p → ν K + searches*

The Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is a large liquid scintillator detector designed to explore many topics in fundamental physics. In this study, the potential of searching for proton decay in the $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ mode with JUNO is investigated. The kaon and its decay particles feature a clear three-fold coincidence signature that results in a high efficiency for identification. Moreover, the excellent energy resolution of JUNO permits suppression of the sizable background caused by other delayed signals. Based on these advantages, the detection efficiency for the proton decay via $p\to \bar{\nu} K^+$ is 36.9% ± 4.9% with a background level of $0.2\pm 0.05({\rm syst})\pm$$0.2({\rm stat})$ events after 10 years of data collection. The estimated sensitivity based on 200 kton-years of exposure is $9.6 \times 10^{33}$ years, which is competitive with the current best limits on the proton lifetime in this channel and complements the use of different detection technologies