Epidemiologic Study on Mortality Due to Lung Cancer in Residents in Xiamen in 2005-2014

目的探讨厦门市居民肺癌死亡变化趋势,为厦门市肺癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2005-2014年厦门市居民肺癌死亡资料,计算死亡率等评价指标,用多因素Logistic回归分析肺癌死亡的影响因素。结果 2005-2014年,厦门市居民肺癌死亡率为28.58/10万,年均上升4.86%,男性是女性的2.90倍;死亡率随着年龄的增长逐渐升高,死亡年龄中位数为68岁。男性(OR=3.50,95%CI:3.29~3.73)、生活在城市(95%CI:1.12~1.26)和2010-2014年时间段(OR=1.23,95%CI:1.17~1.30)、年龄越大(OR=1.53,95%CI:1.52~1.55)可能是肺癌死亡的危险因素。结论厦门市居民肺癌死亡率呈上升趋势,应以城市、男性、老年人群作为重点关注对象,重视肺癌防治工作。Objective To explore the trend of mortality due to lung cancer in residents in Xiamen, to provide the basis data on preventing lung cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of lung cancer from 2005 to 2014 was collected. The multiple logistic regression was used to analyze the impact factors associating with the death due to lung cancer. Results From 2005 to 2014, the average mortality rate of lung cancer in residents in Xiamen was 28.58 per 100,000 persons., of which in male was2.90 times as many as that in female. The APC was 4.86%. The mortality rate rose as the age grew and the median age was 68 years old. Male(OR=3.50,95% CI:3.29~3.73),living in the city(95% CI:1.12~1.26) and time 2010-2014(OR =1.23,95% CI:1.17~1.30),age(OR =1.53,95% CI :1.52~1.55) may be the dead risk factors for lung cancer. Conclusion The mortality of lung cancer in Xiamen had a increasing trend. We should pay more attention on preventing and curing of lung cancer especially on the urban, male and elderly population.2014年福建省卫生计生委青年科研课题(2014-2-78

Tendency of death and life reduction from nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City

目的探讨厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡和减寿的变化趋势,为厦门市鼻咽癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2010-2014年厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2010-2014年,厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡率2.27/10万,男性死亡率是女性的2.83倍。鼻咽癌造成的AYLL为16.95年。厦门市鼻咽癌死亡率能拟合出GM(1,1)模型,预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.90%~8.32%间,无法拟合AYLL的预测模型。预测2015-2017年鼻咽癌死亡率略有下降。结论 GM(1,1)模型可用于厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡率的预测,鼻咽癌仍是造成厦门市居民早死的重要原因,不能放松鼻咽癌的预防控制工作。Objective To explore the changing trend of death and years of life loss due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City so as to provide evidence for its comprehensive prevention and control. Methods The data about residents dying of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen City during 2010-2014 were collected and cleared up to calculate the mortality rate,the average years of life loss( AYLL) and the average annual percentage change( APC) of mortality rate,etc. GM( 1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results The mortality rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City during 2010-2014 was 2.27 / 100,000,and the mortality rate of males was 2.83 times that of females. The AYLL due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma was 16.95 years. All mortality rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Xiamen City could fit out the GM( 1,1) model,but the AYLL could not. The mean absolute percent errors between the simulated values and the observed values were 2.90%-8.32%. The mortality rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from 2015 to 2017 were predicted to be decreased slightly.Conclusions The GM( 1,1) model can be used for forecasting the mortality rate due to nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is still an important cause of premature death among residents in Xiamen City; and hence,more attention should be paid to its prevention and control.福建省卫生厅青年科研课题(2014-2-78

Analysis and Forecasting of Population Mortality and Life Lost Trend due to Lung Cancer among Xiamen Residents

背景与目的近年来肺癌发病率和死亡率不断上升,已成为我国恶性肿瘤的首位死因。本研究旨在探讨厦门市居民肺癌死亡和减寿的变化趋势,以期为厦门市肺癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2005年-2014年厦门市居民肺癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(average potential life lost,AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2005年-2014年,厦门市居民肺癌死亡率28.58/10万,年均上升4.86%,男性死亡率是女性的2.90倍;AYLL为7.8年,存在下降趋势。GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.16%-8.83%,预测2015年-2019年肺癌死亡率和AYLL值均有所上升。结论厦门市肺癌死亡率逐年升高,未来肺癌死亡率和人均减寿数都有上升趋势,应重视肺癌的预防控制工作。Background and objective In recent years, the incidence and mortality of lung cancer is rising. It has become the leading cause of death of malignant tumors in China. The aim of this study is to explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to lung cancer in residents in Xiamen, so as to provide the basis data on preventing lung cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of lung cancer from 2005 to 2014 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost(AYLL), and the average percentage change(APC) of mortality rate. GM(1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results From 2005 to 2014, the average mortality rate of lung cancer in residents in Xiamen was 28.58 per 100,000 persons, of which in male was 2.90 times as that in female. The APC was 4.86%. The AYLL, which was 7.8 years, had decline trend from 2005 to 2014. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 2.16%-8.83%. The mortality rate and AYLL of lung cancer in residents in Xiamen would increase from 2015 to 2019. Conclusion The mortality of lung cancer increased year by year in Xiamen. There are both increasing trend of mortality and years of life lost in future. So we should pay more attentions on preventing and curing of lung cancer.福建省卫生厅青年科研课题(No.2014-2-78)资助~

Study on the trend of mortality and years of life lost related to lung cancer in Xiamen in ten years

目的掌握厦门市居民2004-2013年肺癌死亡趋势及寿命损失情况,为政府部门制定干预政策提供参考依据。方法从厦门市死因监测系统收集整理2004年1月1日-2013年12月31日厦门市居民肺癌死亡资料进行统计分析。结果2004-2013年间厦门市居民肺癌死亡率逐年增加(P<0.05),总死亡率27.32/10万;男性死亡率是女性的2.90倍;65岁开始死亡率急剧增高,在75~79岁年龄组达到高峰;2013年死亡率比2004年增长35.32%。10年肺癌造成的寿命损失年(PYLL)共52 970人年,寿命损失率(PYLLR)为3.06‰,平均减寿年数(APLL)为11.20年;男性PYLL值为38 605人年,比女性多24 240人年,但APLL男性比女性约少1年,分别为10.95年和11.91年。结论厦门市居民肺癌死亡率呈不断上升趋势,主要危及中老年人群,男性死亡率始终高于女性,应采取必要的干预措施。Objective To learn the trend of mortality and years of life lost related to lung cancer in Xiamen from 2004 to 2013 and to provide the basis for the government setting up intervention policies. Methods The death data related to lung cancer of residents in Xiamen from Jan 1,2004 to Dec 31,2013 were collected from "Xiamen Municipal Death Surveillance System" to be and they were counted and analyzed. Results The total mortality of lung cancer in Xiamen from 2004 to 2013 was 27.32 per 100,000,of which male was 2.90 times as female. The mortality rose sharply after 65 years old and peaked in the group of 75~79 years old.Over the last ten years,the total mortality rate of lung cancer in Xiamen rose year by year(P<0.05),increasing about 35.32% in 2013 than that in 2004. The potential years of life lost(PYLL),the rate of PYLL,and the average years of life lost(AYLL)due to lung cancer in Xiamen during the last ten years were 52 970 per person per year,3.06‰,and 11.20 years,respectively. The value of PYLL in male was 38 605 per person per year,24 240 per person per year more than that in female. However,the APLL in male was one year less than that in female,which were 10.95 years and 11.91 years,respectively. Conclusion The mortality of lung cancer in residents of Xiamen has increasing trend in the last ten years. It is more harm for group with middle and elderly age. The mortality in male is always higher than that in female. So it's necessary to adopt some effective intervening measures.福建省卫生厅青年课题项目(项目编号:2014-2-78

Epidemiologic study on the mortality associated with nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents in Xiamen City

目的探讨厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡变化趋势,为厦门市鼻咽癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2005~2014年厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡资料,计算死亡率等评价指标,用多因素logistic回归分析鼻咽癌死亡的影响因素。结果 2005~2014年,厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡率2.31/10万,男性死亡率是女性的2.64倍;死亡率随着年龄的增加逐渐升高,死亡年龄中位数为57岁,10年间死亡率处于较平稳水平(P>0.05)。男性(OR=2.95,95%CI:2.38~3.67)和年龄(OR=1.32,95%CI:1.29~1.36)可能是鼻咽癌死亡的危险因素。结论厦门市居民鼻咽癌死亡率处于较平稳水平,未来应以男性、老年人群作为重点关注对象,重视鼻咽癌防治工作。Objective To investigate the mortality associated with nasopharyngeal carcinoma in residents living in Xiamen City for supplying basic data to control and prevent this entity. Methods The deaths associated with nasopharyngeal carcinoma were collected in population in Xiamen City from 2005 to 2014, and the death rate as well as influencing factors were analyzed with multiple logistic regression model. Results The average mortality for nasopharyngeal carcinoma was 2.13 per 100 000 population in Xiamen between 2005 and2014. The death rate in men was 2.64 times than that in women, and mortality was increased with age(median age: 57 years), yet maintained at stable level. Risk factors for death from nasopharyngeal carcinoma were involved in gender(male: OR=2.95; 95% CI: 2.38~3.67) and ages(OR=1.32; 95% CI: 1.29~1.36). Conclusion The mortality for nasopharyngeal carcinoma are kept in stable level in population in Xiamen City, and following prevention of this entity should be focused on men and the aged population.福建省卫生厅青年科研课题(项目编号:2014-2-78

Epidemiological study on the mortality associated with leukemia cancer in residents in Xiamen City

目的探讨厦门市居民白血病死亡变化趋势,为厦门市白血病综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2005~2014年厦门市居民白血病死亡资料,计算死亡率等评价指标,用多因素logistic回归分析白血病死亡的影响因素。结果 2005~2014年,厦门市居民白血病死亡率3.62/10万,男性死亡率是女性的1.38倍;0~4岁组白血病死亡率较高,之后在较低水平波动,55岁后随着年龄的升高死亡率迅速升高;死亡年龄中位数为54岁,10年间死亡率处于较平稳水平(P>0.05)。男性(OR=1.46,95%CI:1.25~1.71)和年龄(OR=1.18,95%CI:1.16~1.20)可能是白血病死亡的危险因素。结论厦门市居民白血病死亡率处于较平稳水平,未来应以男性、儿童和老年人群作为重点关注对象,重视白血病防治工作。Objective To investigate the trend of mortality associated with leukemia cancer in residents in Xiamen City for evidences in prevention and treatment of this disease. Methods The data of residents dying from leukemia cancer were collected in Xiamen from 2005 to 2014, and the death rate was calculated. Multiple logistic regression was used to analyze the factors affecting the death of leukemia cancer. Results The average mortality for leukemia cancer was 3.62 per 100 000 population between 2005 and 2014. The death rate in men was 1.38 times than that of women, and higher in population ranging from 0 to 4 years old. Although the mortality remained lower and fluctuated in ages between 5 and 54 years, yet was significantly higher after 55 years and tended to grow with ages. The median age of death was 54 years old, and the mortality remained stable in10 years of periods(P>0.05). The risks for death of leukemia cancer were associated with male(OR=1.46; 95%CI: 1.25-1.71) and age(OR=1.18; 95% CI:1.16-1.20). Conclusion The mortality for leukemia cancer appears relatively lower in population in Xiamen City in current stage. However, following prevention and treatment of this entity should be focused on men, young children and the aged.福建省卫生厅青年科研课题(项目编号:2014-2-78

Analysis on lung cancer mortality and years of life lost in urban and rural residents of Xiamen city

目的了解厦门市城乡居民肺癌死亡和减寿趋势变化,为厦门市肺癌预防控制工作提供依据。方法通过厦门市死因监测系统收集2003-2014年厦门市城乡居民肺癌死亡资料,采用SAS 9.1软件对死亡率、标化死亡率(SMR)、潜在寿命损失年(PYLL)、寿命损失率(PYLLR),标化寿命损失率(SPYLLR)、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等指标进行评价。结果 2003-2014年厦门市城市、农村居民肺癌死亡率分别为29.64/10万和25.40/10万,年均分别上升5.63%和4.98%;标化死亡率分别为32.78/10万和27.13/10万;无论城市、农村,肺癌标化死亡率男性均明显高于女性;死亡率均随着年龄的增长而升高,在70~79岁年龄组达到高峰。城市居民肺癌所致PYLL、PYLLR、SPYLLR、AYLL分别为27 944人年、2.11‰、2.41‰和7.12年,而农村分别为17 807人年、2.47‰、2.69‰和9.74年。结论厦门市城乡居民肺癌死亡呈上升趋势和老龄化趋势,应以男性、老年人群作为重点关注对象,重视肺癌防治工作。Objective To explore the trend of lung cancer mortality and years of life lost in urban and rural residents of Xiamen,and to provide the basis data for preventing lung cancer in Xiamen. Methods The lung cancer mortality data of urban and rural residents in Xiamen during 2003 to 2014 were collected. The SAS 9.1 software was used to assess the mortalities, the standard mortality rates(SMR), the potential years of life lost(PYLL), the rates of potential years of life lost(PYLLR), the standard rate of potential years of life lost(SPYLLR) the average potential life lost(AYLL) and the average percentage change(APC) of mortalities.Results During 2003 to 2014, the average lung cancer mortalities of urban and rural residents in Xiamen were 29.64/100 000 and25.40/100 000, respectively; the APCs were 5.63% and 4.98%, respectively; the SMRs were 32.78/100 000 and 27.13/100 000 persons, respectively; the lung cancer mortality in males was significantly higher than that in females, and the mortalities increased with age; the lung cancer mortality in 70-79 years old group was the highest. The PYLL, PYLLR, SPYLLR, and AYLL due to lung cancer in urban residents were 27 944 person years, 2.11‰, 2.41‰ and 7.12 years, respectively; and the PYLL, PYLLR, SPYLLR,and AYLL due to lung cancer in rural residents were 17 807 person years, 2.47‰, 2.69‰, and 9.74 years, respectively.Conclusion The lung cancer mortalities in urban and rural residents of Xiamen city had the increasing and aging trend. More attention should be paid to males and elders for preventing and treating of lung cancer.福建省卫生厅青年科研课题(2014-2-78

Prediction of Mortality and Years of Life Lost due to Liver Cancer in Residents in Xiamen

目的探讨厦门市居民肝癌死亡的变化趋势,为厦门市肝癌综合防治工作提供依据。方法收集整理2004-2013年厦门市居民肝癌死亡资料计算死亡率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)、死亡率年均变化百分比等评价指标,用GM(1,1)模型对死亡率和AYLL进行预测。结果 2004-2013年,厦门市居民因肝癌死亡率31.95/10万,年均下降2.0%,男性死亡率是女性的3.81倍;AYLL为16.74年,存在下降趋势。GM(1,1)模型预测值与实际值平均相对误差2.27%~3.71%,预测2014-2018年肝癌死亡率和AYLL值均有所下降。结论 GM(1,1)模型可用于厦门市居民肝癌死亡率和减寿趋势预测,未来肝癌死亡虽有下降趋势,但仍呈高位态势,仍要重视肝癌的预防控制工作。Objective To explore the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to liver cancer in residents in Xiamen,so as to provide the basis data on preventing liver cancer in Xiamen. Methods The data of residents in Xiamen dying of liver cancer from 2004 to 2013 was collected and cleared up to calculate the evaluation indexes including the mortality rate, the average potential life lost( AYLL), and the average percentage change( APC) of mortality rate. GM( 1,1) model was used to predict the future mortality and AYLL. Results From 2004 to 2013, the average mortality rate of liver cancer in residents in Xiamen was 31. 95 per 100000 persons.,of which in male was 3. 81 times as that in female. The APC was 2. 0%. The AYLL,which was16. 74 years,had decline trend from 2004 to 2013. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 2. 27%- 3. 71%. The mortality rate and AYLL of liver cancer in residents in Xiamen would decrease from 2014 to 2018.Conclusion GM( 1,1) model could be used to forecast the trend of mortality and years of life lost due to liver cancer in residents in Xiamen. Though there is descending trend of mortality and years of life lost in future, the value of mortality is still high.So we still have to pay more attentions on preventing and curing of liver cancer