Application of Trend Impact Analysis for predicting future fruit consumption

Knowledge of those aspects that motivate consumers towards more fruit consumption is necessary in order to implement policies to stimulate fruit consumption. To predict future fruit consumption based on such knowledge from experts, and based on historic consumption data, the method of Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) was applied to four countries. From the historic data, a trend or baseline has been estimated. TIA combines this information with expert knowledge to forecast future consumption. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to handle uncertainty in the TIA model thus developed. Despite the disadvantages of TIA, the method is suitable to explain a trend by means of impact factors, and offers an opportunity to deal with uncertain prognoses by experts. TIA is a relatively unknown method and requires more research and experience to judge if it is widely applicable, and if it provides a good alternative to more traditional forecasting methods

Heterogeneity and option pricing

An economy with agents having constant yet heterogeneous degrees of relative risk aversion prices assets as though there were a single decreasing relative risk aversion pricing representative agent. The pricing kernel has fat tails and option prices do not conform to the Black-Scholes formula. Implied volatility exhibits a smile. Heterogeneous beliefs about distribution parameters also implies non-lognormal pricing kernels with fatter tails and over-pricing of out-of-the-money options. Heterogeneity as the source of non-stationary pricing fits Rubinstein’s (1994) interpretation of the over-pricing as an indication of crash-o-phobia. Rubinstein’s term suggests that those who hold out-of-the-money put options have relatively high risk aversion or relatively high subjective probability assessments of low market outcomes. The essence of this explanation is heterogeneity in investor attitudes towards risks and probability beliefs.

Risk management in organic coffee supply chains : testing the usefulness of critical risk models

This report documents the findings of the analysis of the supply chain of organic coffee from Uganda to the Netherlands using a Chain Risk Model (CRM). The CRM considers contamination of organic coffee with chemicals as a threat for the supply chain, and analyses the consequences of contamination in one stage of the supply chain for the subsequent stages. Next to this, CRM also analyses the effectiveness and efficiency of measures to avoid or detect contamination. In a subsequent phase of this research, the CRM can also be used to analyse the consequences of fraud (= mixing of organic coffee and non-organic coffee) and measures to tackle fraud

Chain Risk Model for quantifying cost effectiveness of phytosanitary measures

A Chain Risk Model (CRM) was developed for a cost effective assessment of phytosanitary measures. The CRM model can be applied to phytosanitary assessments of all agricultural product chains. In CRM, stages are connected by product volume flows with which pest infections can be spread from one stage to another. The arrangement of these stages can be varied. Experience with CRM was acquired through two cases: Clavibacter in Tomatoes and PSTVd (Potato Spindle Tuber Viroid) in potatoes. Employees from the Dutch Plant Protection Service (PD) will initially test CRM. Ten behoeve van een onderbouwde kosten effectieve afweging tussen fytosanitaire maatregelen is een Keten Risico Model ontwikkeld. Het KRM model is toepasbaar voor alle agrarische productketens. In het model zijn ketenschakels verbonden door product volume stromen, waarmee infecties kunnen worden verspreid. De rangschikking van de keten schakels kan door de gebruiker van het model worden gevarieerd. Met het model is ervaring opgedaan aan de hand van een tweetal cases: Clavibacter in tomaat en Potato Spindle Tuber Viroid (PSTVd) in aardappel. In eerste plaats wordt beoogd medewerkers van de PD te laten werken met KRM

The Faces of Fatness in Early Modern Europe

Since the beginning of Christianity the body, and lack of control over it, were perceived as a site of sin. St. Augustine, for example, struggled with the temptations of the senses, seeking control of his mind over the urges of his body. St. Thomas Aquinas viewed immoderate eating and drinking as gluttonous. This sinful perception of the body was clearly developed in artistic depictions. Gluttony was often represented by a fat figure. In early modern Europe, the negative appraisal of the fat body was further related to heathen customs, and to violation of the accepted social norms and hierarchy.This paper focuses on images from 15th and 16th century northern Europe, delineating the negative visual approach towards the fat body. From representations of the sin of Gluttony to the depiction of peasants around the time of the German peasant wars, this paper follows the negative portrayal of the fat body and its different religious, social and political meanings

Consumer acceptance of novel fruits and fruit products

The task of the Deliverable 1.3.7 Report on case studies of fruit innovations is to provide information on consumers' acceptance of innovative fruit and fruit products selected for case studies in Deliverable 1.3.2 List of selected fruit innovations, and to validate findings from previous stages of WP 1.3 research. The task of the Deliverable 1.3.9 List of characteristics for future fruit innovations is to provide a list of product characteristics and recommendations that can increase the success of fruit innovations in the future. This report presents results of case studies carried out in February and March, 2010, in four European countries: Greece, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain. It also presents product characteristics accepted by consumers and recommendations for development of future innovative fresh fruits and fruit products, as well as recommended strategies and policies, which were formulated on the basis of findings of case study and previous stages of WP1.3 research and their validation