Social work practice and competing philosophies

Summary: Social work practice has often been subject to trends, something that could arguably be the case now. Postmodernism is on a march that threatens the long-standing modernist perspective on which social work has traditionally been practiced. However, postmodernism has important lessons to teach and may correctly be observed as an alternative practice approach with distinct theories and methods of application. Findings: The social work profession is under threat from creeping managerialism, bureaucracy and internally competing philosophies. Postmodernist perspectives have much to offer practitioners and the recipients of social work, but may be stifled because organisational structures, including academia, will have to embrace new practice methods in order for postmodernism to achieve widespread legitimacy. Traditional, modern social work practice with its empirically based frameworks and theories remains in the ascendancy for now

Second international comparative study of mortality tables for pension fund retirees

This paper contains an update to the study carried out by Verrall et al. (2006a,b). It examines the mortality assumptions used in the valuation of pension liabilities in a number of different countries. The results are considered in relation to the underlying population mortality rates, in order to isolate the strength of the mortality assumptions being applied. It is found that there is evidence of a lack of consistency between countries, and that this has not changed since the previous study

A generalized linear model with smoothing effects for claims reserving

In this paper, we continue the development of the ideas introduced in England & Verrall (2001) by suggesting the use of a reparameterized version of the generalized linear model (GLM) which is frequently used in stochastic claims reserving. This model enables us to smooth the origin, development and calendar year parameters in a similar way as is often done in practice, but still keep the GLM structure. Specifically, we use this model structure in order to obtain reserve estimates and to systemize the model selection procedure that arises in the smoothing process. Moreover, we provide a bootstrap procedure to achieve a full predictive distribution

Texas Forestry Paper No. 1

Log storage under water spray makes lumber more poroushttps://scholarworks.sfasu.edu/texas_forestry_papers/1028/thumbnail.jp

To the editor of The Psychological Review.

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Modelling water allocation increases using climate predictions

Water allocations in Australia often commence at the start of the year with less than 100% supply and rely on seasonal streamflows into dams throughout the year to meet demand. Therefore more than ever, water allocation models are used with forward planning in order to effectively manage water supply. This dissertation focuses on developing a water allocation model incorporating climate forecasts for Cressbrook Dam, a major water supplier for the regional town of Toowoomba. After determining the best climate index of ENSO, the methodology focussed on identifying a relationship between streamflow and SOI on a monthly and seasonal scale and the creation of the water balance model. To apply the findings of these results, the use of three water management scenarios were then run through the water balance model using an extended streamflow sequence. This analysis indicated that there was a significant correlation in the months of December to March which was further strengthened when looking at a seasonal scale. A consistently positive SOI observed in November suggested that there was a 100% chance that the dam level will substantially increase and this to develop alternative water management scenarios that raised restrictions when this SOI phase was observed. By raising restrictions early, these management scenarios achieved a reduction of around 280 days from level 5 water restrictions which would have relieved the residents of Toowoomba during a major drought period. However, the raising of restrictions also resulted in lowering the dam level to a critical low volume. This unexpected response in dam level storage was identified due to a short streamflow record available. The development of the water management scenarios were based off a limited range of historical climate variability, therefore recognising that a large streamflow record is crucial to developing water management strategies which incorporate decisions based off climate events on the past

Automatic, computer aided geometric design of free-knot, regression splines

A new algorithm for Computer Aided Geometric Design of least squares (LS) splines with variable knots, named GeDS, is presented. It is based on interpreting functional spline regression as a parametric B-spline curve, and on using the shape preserving property of its control polygon. The GeDS algorithm includes two major stages. For the first stage, an automatic adaptive, knot location algorithm is developed. By adding knots, one at a time, it sequentially "breaks" a straight line segment into pieces in order to construct a linear LS B-spline fit, which captures the "shape" of the data. A stopping rule is applied which avoids both over and under fitting and selects the number of knots for the second stage of GeDS, in which smoother, higher order (quadratic, cubic, etc.) fits are generated. The knots appropriate for the second stage are determined, according to a new knot location method, called the averaging method. It approximately preserves the linear precision property of B-spline curves and allows the attachment of smooth higher order LS B-spline fits to a control polygon, so that the shape of the linear polygon of stage one is followed. The GeDS method produces simultaneously linear, quadratic, cubic (and possibly higher order) spline fits with one and the same number of B-spline regression functions. The GeDS algorithm is very fast, since no deterministic or stochastic knot insertion/deletion and relocation search strategies are involved, neither in the first nor the second stage. Extensive numerical examples are provided, illustrating the performance of GeDS and the quality of the resulting LS spline fits. The GeDS procedure is compared with other existing variable knot spline methods and smoothing techniques, such as SARS, HAS, MDL, AGS methods and is shown to produce models with fewer parameters but with similar goodness of fit characteristics, and visual quality