A Natural Law of Succession

Consider the problem of multinomial estimation. You are given an alphabet of k distinct symbols and are told that the i-th symbol occurred exactly n_i times in the past. On the basis of this information alone, you must now estimate the conditional probability that the next symbol will be i. In this report, we present a new solution to this fundamental problem in statistics and demonstrate that our solution outperforms standard approaches, both in theory and in practice.Comment: 23 page

Nonuniform Markov models

A statistical language model assigns probability to strings of arbitrary length. Unfortunately, it is not possible to gather reliable statistics on strings of arbitrary length from a finite corpus. Therefore, a statistical language model must decide that each symbol in a string depends on at most a small, finite number of other symbols in the string. In this report we propose a new way to model conditional independence in Markov models. The central feature of our nonuniform Markov model is that it makes predictions of varying lengths using contexts of varying lengths. Experiments on the Wall Street Journal reveal that the nonuniform model performs slightly better than the classic interpolated Markov model. This result is somewhat remarkable because both models contain identical numbers of parameters whose values are estimated in a similar manner. The only difference between the two models is how they combine the statistics of longer and shorter strings. Keywords: nonuniform Markov model, interpolated Markov model, conditional independence, statistical language model, discrete time series.Comment: 17 page

Learning Stochastic Tree Edit Distance

pages 42-53International audienceTrees provide a suited structural representation to deal with complex tasks such as web information extraction, RNA secondary structure prediction, or conversion of tree structured documents. In this context, many applications require the calculation of similarities between tree pairs. The most studied distance is likely the tree edit distance for which improvements in terms of complexity have been achieved during the last decade. However, this classic edit distance usually uses a priori fixed edit costs which are often difficult to tune, that leaves little room for tackling complex problems. In this paper, we focus on the learning of a stochastic tree edit distance. We use an adaptation of the expectation-maximization algorithm for learning the primitive edit costs. We carried out several series of experiments that confirm the interest to learn a tree edit distance rather than a priori imposing edit costs