RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN BOLIVIA: AN ESCAPE BOAT?

This paper studies rural-urban migration in Bolivia. Domestic migration usually works as an equalization mechanism, in which regions with fewer economic opportunities send migrants to more dynamic regions. We model the migration decision and take into account the possibility of self-selection for computing the returns to migration. We present selectivity corrected quantile regression models for earnings of both migrants and non-migrants in urban and metropolitan areas. We find that migrants receive a premium at low and median quantiles of the urban/metro conditional earnings distribution. This premium is somewhat diminished by a negative selectivity correction for migrants with lower probabilities of migration.

USE OF SURVEY DESIGN FOR THE EVALUATION OF SOCIAL PROGRAMS: THE PNAD AND PETI

The structure of some household surveys allows the evaluation of social programs which are implemented gradually by municipality and whose objectives are measurable by survey variables. Such evaluations do not require over sampling of areas in which the program was implemented, nor the application of additional questionnaires, while providing baseline data and non-experimental comparison groups. We use the PNAD survey to evaluate the impact of the Program for the Eradication of Child Labor on child labor, schooling, and income for municipalities which entered the program from 1997-1999. We present results both from a reflexive comparison and from matching municipalities to form a comparison group and measuring the difference in differences (D in D). Only the reduction of child labor is robust to the D in D analysis, while the reflexive results also demonstrate a significant increase in school attendance. We find the program to be more effective in smaller municipalities as suggested by Rocha (1999).

Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in the Brazilian Market for Bank Reserves

We estimate an identified VAR (SVAR) with contemporaneous restrictions derived from a model of the market for bank reserves, which allows us to disentangle monetary policy shocks from demand shocks for reserves in Brazil. The main results are: i) the Central Bank of Brazil acts in order to smooth the bank reserve market interest rate (Selic); ii) the spread between the Selic rate and the discount rate provides information to estimate the demand curve for borrowed reserves; iii) overidentifying restrictions show that we cannot reject, for any period or model, the interest rate operational target hypothesis, even during the fixed exchange rate regime; iv) the impulse response functions show that shocks to the demand for reserves and to borrowed reserves generate statistically significant responses in real output and the inflation rate; v) all models display the liquidity effect and a small inflation rate puzzle.

Explaining Bank Failures in Brazil: Micro, Macro and Contagion Effects (1994-1998)

We apply duration (survival) models with exponential hazard and exponential piecewise-constant hazard functions to study the determinants of bank failure over the period 1994 to 1998 in Brazil. The models deal empirically with left censoring in the data. We control for macroeconomic conditions and contagion effects, besides bank-specific factors. Our results indicate that foreign banks have distinct empirical survival functions relatively to other banks. For Brazil, macroeconomic and bank-level covariates explain the likelihood and timing of bank failure. Our indicator of system-wide financial fragility (IFF) suggests that the banking industry faced increased fragility after November 1995. We find evidence that the Program of Incentives to the Restructuring and Strengthening of the National Financial System (Proer) was able to distinguish solvent from insolvent banks.

The Legal Efforts on Marine Culture Development in Pacitan, 1999-2015

Beach is one of the most famous tourism areas in Pacitan. Beaches in Pacitan have special features compared to other beaches. The beautiful nature is able to attract tourists to come, visit and enjoy it. Therefore, the beaches in Pacitan have a lot of possibilities to be a tourism area of marine culture.This article is a historical research. The method used in this study was a historical research method, consisting of four steps, heuristics, criticism, interpretation and historiography. The results of this study indicate that the beaches in the Pacitan region have special attraction for tourists to visit.Thus, to be a tourism area of marine culture, Pacitan requires a better management. Based on research conducted so far, the beaches in Pacitan have not been managed optimally, due to a lack of facilities, and low human resources as managers. In short, it is the responsibility of communities, private parties and local governments to maximize the quality of management of coastal tourism around Pacitan, and their cooperation is need. Therefore, the beaches can be a tourist area of marine culture that can grow rapidly in Pacitan region

Metodologia e resultados da avaliação do programa de erradicação do trabalho infantil

A estrutura de algumas pesquisas domiciliares permite a avaliação do impacto de programas sociais cuja implementação é gradual e de município a município cujos objetivos são adequadamente medidos usando as variáveis da dita pesquisa. Neste trabalho, usa-se a Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) para estimar o impacto do Programa de Erradicação do Trabalho Infantil (Peti) sobre o trabalho de crianças, freqüência à escola e renda para os municípios cuja inclusão no programa se deu entre 1997 e 1999. Os resultados apresentados foram obtidos mediante a técnica de matching de Heckman, que consiste em encontrar, para cada município no programa, um município de comparação similar mas que não participa. Com este grupo de controle pode-se usar diferenças em diferenças para medir o impacto do programa. Os resultados mostram impactos positivos apenas sobre o trabalho infantil, que é o objetivo principal do programa. ________________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACTThe structure of some household surveys allows the evaluation of social programs which are implemented gradually by municipality and whose objectives are measurable by survey variables. We use the PNAD survey to evaluate the impact of the Program for the Eradication of Child Labor (Peti) on child labor, schooling, and income for municipalities which entered the program from 1997-1999. We present bare results and results obtained from “matching” municipalities to form a control group (differences in differences). Only the child labor impact is robust to the differences in differences analysis, which is the primary objective of the program

Pacitan dalam Pembangunan Masa Bupati Sutjipto Tahun 1998 – 2000: Suatu Tinjauan Historis Peraturan Daerah

This study aims to determine the history of government and bureaucracy after the fall of President Soeharto's government which was arranged during the crisis. The history of the government in question is the government in Pacitan Regency which at that time coincided with the reign of the Sitjipto Regent. At that time, almost all regions throughout the archipelago felt the impact, especially in the field of development. The research uses the historical method by reconstructing the past through a process of critical testing and analysis of the records and relics of the past. Broadly speaking, historical research includes four steps, starting from heuristics (collection of sources), criticism (verification), interpretation (imagination based on facts), and historiography (arranging facts chronologically). During the reign of Regent Sutjipto, in the period 1998-2000 he carried out a five-year development plan which was approved by the previous government through Perda no. 1 1994 concerning Basic Patterns of Pacitan Level II Regional Development 1994/1995 – 1998/1999. With a focus on the development of human and economic resources. Even with the crisis situation, Pacitan was able to adapt and the results werebased on the Susenas survey with several indicators, Pacitan experienced an increase in population and population growth, sex ratio, number of households, and population density