Causal Inference in Disease Spread across a Heterogeneous Social System

Diffusion processes are governed by external triggers and internal dynamics in complex systems. Timely and cost-effective control of infectious disease spread critically relies on uncovering the underlying diffusion mechanisms, which is challenging due to invisible causality between events and their time-evolving intensity. We infer causal relationships between infections and quantify the reflexivity of a meta-population, the level of feedback on event occurrences by its internal dynamics (likelihood of a regional outbreak triggered by previous cases). These are enabled by our new proposed model, the Latent Influence Point Process (LIPP) which models disease spread by incorporating macro-level internal dynamics of meta-populations based on human mobility. We analyse 15-year dengue cases in Queensland, Australia. From our causal inference, outbreaks are more likely driven by statewide global diffusion over time, leading to complex behavior of disease spread. In terms of reflexivity, precursory growth and symmetric decline in populous regions is attributed to slow but persistent feedback on preceding outbreaks via inter-group dynamics, while abrupt growth but sharp decline in peripheral areas is led by rapid but inconstant feedback via intra-group dynamics. Our proposed model reveals probabilistic causal relationships between discrete events based on intra- and inter-group dynamics and also covers direct and indirect diffusion processes (contact-based and vector-borne disease transmissions).Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1711.0635

Kinetika Adsorpsi Ion Besi (II) Oleh Biomassa Chaetoceros sp.

This research was done to study the adsorption kinetic of ferrous ionic by Chaetoceros sp. Many variables influenced the adsorption capacity of absorbent on ferrous ionic including interaction time, ferrous ionic concentration and pH. Two absorbens were used in this study i.e. pure culture and natural spoiled product called Diatomite/ Diatomae earth / Diatomaceous earth / Diatomooze of Chaetoceros sp. biomass. The adsorption capacity by biomass was measured by atomic absorption spectrophotometry method (AAS). The result showed that the adsorption process of two absorbents happened very fast. The time needed to get maximal adsorption were 10 and 15 minutes respectively. Adsorption pattern of two biomass can be interpreted by Langmuir and Freundlich isoterm showing monolayer. The adsorption capacity of Diatomite was five times higher than that of the pure culture biomass because it was influenced by surface group charge and wide surface area of porous. Acidity degree (pH) of solution determined surface active group charge and solubility of iron (II). The increased pH value, the biomass adsorption capacity was added because surface active group had negative charge. The adsorption of biomass was maximal around pH 5 while for pH higher than 5, it wasn’t significantly increased because the iron (II) formed insoluble hydroxide compound

DETERMINATION OF ANTIOXIDANT CAPACITY IN PLUCHEA INDICA LESS LEAVES EXTRACT AND ITS FRACTIONS

Objective: This study was conducted to determine the DPPH free radical scavenging activity of pluchea extract (PE) and its fraction (ethyl acetate (EAF), n-butanol (BF) and aqueous (AF)) and comparing with the its activity of control antioxidant, such as green tea (GE) and rosemary extracts (RE), α-tocopherol succinate (ATS) and BHT.Methods: The antioxidant activity was evaluated by the decrease in absorbance as the result of DPPH˙ color change from purple to yellow at 517 nm by using a stopped-flow spectrometer UV-Vis. AE (antiradical efficiency) was a parameter more exactly used to measure the antioxidant power than EC50 (efficient concentration to reduce 50% of DPPH concentration). This parameter was determined by EC50 and TEC50 (the time needed to reach the steady state).Results: PE and its fraction had free radical-scavenging activity compared with control antioxidant. Based on EC50, the orders of ability to scavenging DPPH radicals was determined as the EAF~ GE>PE ~ ATS ~ RE ~ AF>BHT ~ BF. The results were not exactly because BHT and ATS were potentially as a synthetic antioxidant. Therefore AE parameter was used to determine scavenging activity. The classification order of scavenging activity based on AE was BHT>GE ~ ATS>EAF>RE~ BF~ PE~ AF.Conclusion: The PE and its fractions had DPPH free radical scavenging activity. Based on EC50 and AE parameters, the EAF showed the strongest DPPH free radical scavenging activity compared with PE and the other fractions

Introduction: Tides of Innovation in Oceania

The polysemic nature of valuing emerge as a common feature of different societies in Oceania as a resut of the interactions between societies and between humans, objects, and places.At the core of the three intersecting dymensions - value, materiality, place - is the committiment to the notionof agnecy

UPAYA PENINGKATAN KESADARAN MASYARAKAT DALAM PENANGGULANGAN PENYAKIT DIABETES MELLITUS MELALUI PENGENALAN KONSUMSI TEH BELUNTAS DAN PEMERIKSAAN KESEHATAN RUTIN

Diabetes mellitus (DM), terutama tipe-2 merupakan penyakit degeneratif akibat  perubahan pola hidup, ditandai dengan peningkatan gula darah (hiperglikemia) dan perubahan progresif terhadap struktur histopatologi sel beta langerhaens pankreas karena akumulasi radikal bebas dalam tubuh. Pengelolaan DM yang tidak tepat menyebabkan munculnya penyakit menahun lainnya, seperti jantung koroner dan gangguan mata. DM tipe-2 lebih mudah penanganannya, diantaranya diet pangan kaya polifenol, yang mempunyai aktivitas antioksidan serta antidiabetik,  salah satunya teh beluntas (Pluchea indica Less). Konsumsi teh beluntas diharapkan menurunkan gula darah dan resiko lanjut. Pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini bertujuan sebagai upaya penyadaran masyarakat dalam menanggulangi penyakit DM dengan memperkenalkan potensi teh beluntas, menyelenggarakan senam diabetes mellitus serta pemeriksaan kesehatan rutin, meliputi tekanan darah, berat badan, gula darah, total kolesterol serta hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) khusus bagi peserta DM di komunitas RS Gotong Royong, Surabaya. Kegiatan ini diikuti oleh 75 orang selama 3 bulan (Maret-Mei 2017) setiap hari Minggu mulai pukul 06.00-10.00 WIB (11 pertemuan).  Hasil evaluasi diperoleh sejumlah 46% peserta hadir > 8 kali mengikuti senam diabetes mellitus dan pemeriksaan kesehatan,  24% peserta menderita pre hipertensi, 34% menderita DM, 39% memiliki kadar total kolesterol pada kategori perbatasan dan 37% berada pada katerogi berbahaya. Pemeriksaan HbA1c pada pasien DM dengan kadar gula darah >140 mg/dl menunjukkan bahwa 19% pasien beresiko DM dan 81% pasien benar menderita DM. Konsumsi teh beluntas 2 cangkir per hari pagi dan sore (2g/100mL) selama 2 bulan menurunkan gula darah dan total kolesterol, menurunkan keluhan seperti hilangnya rasa kesemutan dan berkurangnya rasa lelah yang berimbas peningkatan semangat beraktivitas. Kata kunci : penanggulangan, diabetes mellitus tipe-2, teh beluntas, pemeriksaan kesehatan ABSTRACT Diabetes mellitus (DM), especially type 2 is a degenerative disease due to changes in lifestyle, characterized by increased blood sugar (hyperglycemia) and progressive changes in the histopathological structure of pancreatic beta langerhaens cells due to accumulation of free radicals in the body. Improper management of DM causes the emergence of other chronic diseases, such as coronary heart disease and eye disorders. Type 2 diabetes is easier to handle, including a diet rich in polyphenols, which have antioxidant and antidiabetic activity, one of which is beluntas tea (Pluchea indica Less). Consumption of beluntas tea is expected to reduce blood sugar and further risk. This community service was conducted as an effort to raise public awareness in tackling DM disease by introducing the potential of beluntas tea, organizing diabetes mellitus exercises and routine health checks, including blood pressure, weight, blood sugar, total cholesterol and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) specifically for DM participants. in the Community Hospital Gotong Royong, Surabaya. This activity was attended by 75 people for 3 months (March-May 2017) every Sunday starting at 06.00-10.00 WIB (11 meetings). The results of the evaluation showed that 46% of participants attended > 8 times diabetes mellitus exercise and health checks, 24% of participants suffered from pre-hypertension, 34% suffered from diabetes, 39% had total cholesterol levels in the border category and 37% were in dangerous categories. Examination of HbA1c in DM patients with blood sugar levels >140 mg/dl showed that 19% of patients were at risk of DM and 81% of patients had diabetes. Consumption of 2 cups of pluchea tea per day in the morning and evening (2g/100mL) for 2 months reduced blood sugar and total cholesterol, reduced complaints such as loss of tingling sensation and reduced fatigue which results in increased enthusiasm for activities. Keywords: management, type-2 diabetes mellitus, pluchea tea, health examinatio