Forecasting OPEC oil price: a comparison of parametric stochastic models

Most academic papers on oil price forecasting have frequently focused on the use of WTI and European Brent oil price series with little focus on other equally important international oil price benchmarks such as the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB). The ORB is a weighted average of 11-member countries crude streams weighted according to production and exports to the main markets. This paper compares the forecasting accuracy of four stochastic processes and four univariate random walk models using daily data of OPEC Reference Basket series. The study finds that the random walk univariate model outperforms the other stochastic processes. An element of uncertainty was introduced into the point estimates by deriving probability distribution that describes the possible price paths on a given day and their likelihood of occurrence. This will help decision makers, traders and analysts to have a better understanding of the possible daily prices that could occur. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil Price Forecasting, Probability Distributions, and Forecast Evaluation Statistics, Brownian Motion with Mean Reversion process, GARCH Model

Simulation and hedging oil price with geometric Brownian Motion and single-step binomial price model

This paper[1] uses the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) to model the behaviour of crude oil price in a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The performance of the GBM method is compared with the naïve strategy using different forecast evaluation techniques. The results from the forecasting accuracy statistics suggest that the GBM outperforms the naïve model and can act as a proxy for modelling movement of oil prices. We also test the empirical viability of using a call option contract to hedge oil price declines. The results from the simulations reveal that the single-step binomial price model can be effective in hedging oil price volatility. The findings from this paper will be of interest to the government of Nigeria that views the price of oil as one of the key variables in the national budget. JEL Classification Numbers: E64; C22; Q30 Keywords: Oil price volatility; Geometric Brownian Motion; Monte Carlo Simulation; Single-Step Binomial Price Model [1] Acknowledgement: We wish to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and kind considerations. Memos to: Azeez Abiola Oyedele, School of Business and Enterprise, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley Campus, Paisley PA1 2BE, Scotland, Email: [email protected]

Integrated geotechnical and geophysical investigation of a proposed construction site at Mowe, Southwestern Nigeria

The subsurface of a proposed site for building development in Mowe, Nigeria, using Standard Penetration Test (SPT), Cone Penetrometer Test (CPT) and Horizontal Electrical Profiling (HEP), was investigated with the aim of evaluating the suitability of the strata for foundation materials. Four SPT and CPT were conducted using 2.5 tonnes hammer. HEP utilizing Wenner array were performed with inter-electrode spacing of 10 – 60 m along four traverses coincident with each of the SPT and CPT. The HEP data were processed using DIPRO software and textural filtering of the resulting resistivity sections was implemented to enable delineation of hidden layers. Sandy lateritic clay, silty lateritic clay, clay, clayey sand and sand horizons were delineated. The SPT “N” value defined very soft to soft sandy lateritic (<4), stiff silty lateritic clay (7 – 12), very stiff silty clay (12 - 15), clayey sand (15- 20) and sand (27 – 37). Sandy lateritic clay (5-40 kg/cm2) and silty lateritic clay (25 - 65 kg/cm2) were defined from the CPT response. Sandy lateritic clay (220-750 Ωm), clay (< 50 Ωm) and sand (415-5359 Ωm) were delineated from the resistivity sections with two thin layers of silty lateritic clay and clayey sand defined in the texturally filtered resistivity sections. Incompetent clayey materials that are unsuitable for the foundation of the proposed structure underlain the study area to a depth of about 18m. Deep foundation involving piling through the incompetent shallow layers to the competent sand at 20 m depth was recommended

Physicochemical status of water samples from hand-dug wells in Ajebamidele area of Ado-Ekiti, Southwest, Nigeria

Physicochemical analysis of water samples from hand-dug wells in Ajebamidele area of Ado-Ekiti, Southwest, Nigeria were carried out in order to assess the quality of water from these sources. Samples were taken from 24 evenly distributed wells and 20 parameters were determined. The results showed variations in physicochemical quality of water from the hand-dug wells. A synthesis of the data indicates that most of the well waters are potable since the concentrations of ions in majority of the samples are below the maximum permissible level indicated in the World Health Organization (WHO) standards. Complimentary pre-use treatments would enhance the quality status of the well water as desirable.© 2009 International Formulae Group. All rights reservedKeywords: Regolith, pollution, potability, wells, parameters

Structural Integrity of Functionally Graded Composite Structure using Mindlin-Type Finite Elements.

In this paper, two new Mindlin-type plate bending elements have been derived for the modelling of functionally graded plate subjected to various loading conditions such as tensile loading, in-plane bending and out-of-plane bending. The properties of the first Mindlin-type element (i.e. Average Mindlin element) are computed by using an average fibre distribution technique which averages the macro-mechanical properties over each element. The properties of the second Mindlin-type element (i.e. Smooth Mindlin element) are computed by using a smooth fibre distribution technique, which directly uses the macro-mechanical properties at Gaussian quadrature points of each element. There were two types of non-linearity considered in the modelling of the plate, which include finite strain and material degradation. The composite plate considered in this paper is functionally graded in the longitudinal direction only, but the FE code developed is capable of analysing composite plates with functional gradation in transverse and radial direction as well. This study was able to show that the structural integrity enhancement and strength maximisation of composite structures are achievable through functional gradation of material properties over the structure

The impact of computer-assisted instruction on secondary school students' achievement in geography

A research on how ICT's have impacted positively to the Geography pass rates in rural Zimbabwe schools being the case study.This research, carried out in Manicaland Province in Zimbabwe, aimed to investigate the impact of computer-assisted instruction on students’ performance in Geography. The equivalent group research design which included a pre-test post-test control group design was used. Respondents to interviews and pre-test and post-test questionnaires were made up of forty Form 3 students and eight teachers randomly selectedfrom two secondary schools. The data obtained were analysed using t-test, chi-square and SPSS descriptive statistical techniques. The results showed that the computer-assisted instruction (CAI) gave a higher student performance rate in comparison to those who used expository (traditional) instructional strategy (EIS'). There was no significant difference on performance between male and female students exposed to computer-assisted instruction. Recommendations for a follow-up study are made

DRUG ABUSE AND ITS ACADEMIC IMPLICATIONS AMONG STUDENTS AT THREE SECONDARY SCHOOLS IN MUTASA CENTRAL AREA OF MUTASA DISTRICT

This project explored the occurrence of drug abuse and its academic implications to students at three secondary schools in Mutasa Central area in Mutasa District. The study used the mixed method research design which combines qualitative and quantitative approaches in one study to answer research questions. The study population for this research comprised 48 secondary school teachers, 3 school heads and 150 students. Random sampling was employed to select the sample for classes within each form. Simple random sampling was used to select 8 senior school prefects for focus group discussions. School heads were selected for the study through purposive sampling for interviews. The main findings were that teachers did not teach anything about drug use during lessons as they concentrated on their subject content. They had some experience in dealing with drug problems in the schools. The main reasons why students took drugs was influence of peer pressure and lack of models at home. The most common drugs taken by students were tobacco and beer obtained from friends and road side markets. Schools experienced conflicts between teachers and students and students performed poorly in examinations as a result of drug abuse in schools. The main recommendations were made were that the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education must formalize and support establishment of vibrant guidance and counselling system in schools and school administrators must establish vibrant guidance and counselling departments which effected individual and peer counselling. Teachers should incorporate drug education in the teaching-learning of other subjects and schools should invite guest speakers to address students on danger of drug abuse

Effect of Self-Generated Concept-Mapping Instructional Strategy on the Achievement of Students in Evolutionary Concept

A ZJER article assessing the impact of self-generated Concept-mapping instructional strategies amongst Zimbabwean secondary school pupils.This paper is a report of the outcome of a study that was carried out in Manicaland, Mashonaland and Matebeleland provinces in Zimbabwe, to assess the impact of self-generated Concept-mapping instructional strategies on the achievement of senior secondary school students in Biology instruction. The research design was quantitative and was of a quasi-experimental nature that included a pre-test, post-test and nonequivalent control group design. The respondents were one hundred and twenty senior secondary school Form 5 students selected randomly from six schools, instructional material and Evolution Test Items (ETI) were the research instruments used to gather the data. The data obtained were analysed using t-test and chi- square statistical techniques. The results showed that the Seif-generated Concept- Mapping instructional strategy (SGCMIS), significantly improves students' achievements than the Expository Instructional Strategy, EIS (Control group)

Practicum of Systems Integration in Engineering Education

This project asked engineering students to develop a multi-subsystem design that would produce electricity. Students over the duration of this project learned how to simulate and design systems theoretically using computer tools. Furthermore, students were expected to produce a prototype of their model, thereby self-analyzing the practicality levels and enhancing learning. With the technology available to students advancing, systems integration techniques become more efficient learning experiences to the students. The benefits of systems integration can also be expanded to the professional world these students will soon step into. Therefore, teaching these techniques now will give students a better further insight on real world experience in a classroom setting. When students make the expected leap into the job market, it is important for them to have a solid understanding of system integration and multi-system design. It is this understanding that will make students more desirable to top end employers and set them apart form their peers.Cockrell School of Engineerin