337 research outputs found
SINGLE FACTOR STOCHASTIC MODELS WITH SEASONALITY APPLIED TO UNDERLYING WEATHER DERIVATIVES VARIABLES
This paper estimates single factor stochastic models describing daily air temperature behaviour. We modify classical financial models to reflect temperature seasonality and fit them to a time series representing temperatures in Spain. The estimated models are used in Montecarlo simulations to obtain heating and cooling degree-days, which are used as an underlying reference in weather derivatives. The final goal of this work is to obtain an insight into weather derivative valuation, and so making it easier to manage economic activity risks closely related to temperature (i.e. oil, gas and electricity prices and volumes). En este trabajo se estiman modelos estocĂĄsticos unifactoriales que describen elcomportamiento de la temperatura del aire de un Ăndice representativo de la Españapeninsular. Los modelos mĂĄs utilizados en finanzas se adaptan para incorporar elcomportamiento estacional de la variable temperatura. El objetivo de este trabajo es obtenerresultados que permitan avanzar en la valoraciĂłn de activos derivados sobre climatologĂa.Este tipo de derivados permiten gestionar riesgos de la actividad econĂłmica estrechamenterelacionados con la temperatura (por ejemplo, los riesgos de precio y volumen del gas y laelectricidad). Con los modelos estimados se realiza un ejercicio de simulaciĂłn de Montecarlopara obtener los grados dĂa frĂo y los grados dĂa calor que son las referencias subyacentes enlos contratos de meteorologĂa.Grados DĂa FrĂo, EnergĂa, Grados DĂa Calor, Estacionalidad, Modelos estocĂĄsticos y Derivados de la meteorologĂa. Cooling Degree-days, Energy, Heating Degree-days, Seasonality, Stochastic Models, Weather Derivatives.
On the efectiveness of several market integration measures: an empirical analysis
Many market integration measures are operationalized to compute their numerical values during a period characterized by the lack of stability ad market turmoil. The results of the tests give their degree of effectiveness, and reveal that the measures based on the principles of asset valuation, versus statistical measures, more clearly yield the level of integration of financial markets. Besides, cross market arbitrage-linked measures and equilibrium models-linked measures provide complementary information and reflect different properties, and consequently, both types of measures may be useful in practice
Has 1997 Asian Crisis increased Information Flows between International Markets?
The Asian crisis started on July 2, 1997 and caused turmoil in developed as well as emerging international stock markets. The objective of this paper is to analyse the movements and dynamic relationships among stock markets, together with their implications for information flows. We use the Morgan Stanley National and International Indexes (MSCI). These indexes refer to four geographic areas (Asia, Europe, North America and Latin America) for two homogeneous and non-overlapping time intervals. The econometric techniques used in this paper include the cointegration test, vector autoregression analysis, forecast error variance decomposition and impulse-response relationships. Our results show that: i) there are no multivariate cointegration relationships across markets, ii) the leadership role played by the U.S. became stronger after the crisis, iii) the response of Asian markets to external markets is more relevant than vice versa, especially after the crisis, iv) the degree of integration, in Phylaktis (1999) sense, between Asian and the rest of the international stock markets has increased after the crisis and, finally, v) the contagion effect determines significantly the dynamic relationships between international stock markets.Asian crisis, stock market, information flow, cointegration, VAR
Expectations and Forward Risk Premium in the Spanish Power Market
To analyse the forward risk premium in the Spanish electricity market, we adopt not only an ex post approach, but also an ex ante. We find that the sign of the ex post forward premium depends on the unexpected variation in demand and on the unexpected variation in the hydro-energy capacity, and that the ex ante forward premium varies with the expected demand in tight market conditions, showing that the participation of forward dealing agents in the Spanish market responds to risk considerations. Moreover, we find support for the implications derived from the Bessembinder & Lemmon (2002) equilibrium model.
La casa, un dibuix estereotipat des de la infĂ ncia
Treball Final de Grau en Mestre o Mestra d'EducaciĂł Infantil. Codi: MP1040. Curs: 2015/2016El present treball dâinvestigaciĂł tĂ© com a objectiu principal conĂšixer les causes de lâapariciĂł de
lâestereotĂpia en els dibuixos dâun grup concret de nens, mitjançant lâestudi de les possibles causes
i portant a la prĂ ctica una sĂšrie dâactivitats per tal de fer reflexionar a lâalumnat sobre les seues
prĂČpies creacions. Per a la investigaciĂł sâhan estudiat i contrastat les hipĂČtesis de diverses
personalitats amb la idea de centrar-se en una sola, la que envolta el context escolar. Les
activitats plantejades sâhan aplicat en un grup dâalumnes dâentre 4 i 5 anys i tenen lâobjectiu de ferlos
reflexionar i observar si es produeixen canvis en les seues creacions. Concretament la tasca
sâha centrat en el dibuix de la casa, entesa com a un estereotip concret i estĂšs entre la poblaciĂł.
Els resultats que sâhan obtingut desprĂšs de la prĂ ctica han demostrat que els alumnes sĂłn
capaços dâacostar-se a la realitat i eliminar els estereotips dels seus dibuixos, a mĂ©s de crear
obres molt realistes i amb detalls definits. En definitiva, es pot dir que els alumnes necessiten
diverses influĂšncies per a caure en els estereotips i si lâentorn escolar i concretament els
educadors sĂłn capaços de desenvolupar al mĂ xim les potencialitats de lâalumnat, aquest respon
favorablement coneixent a la perfecciĂł tant lâestereotip com la realitat
El valor educatiu del patrimoni histĂČric treballat per projectes (el cas del Palau-Castell de BetxĂ)
Treball final de Grau en Mestre o Mestra d'EducaciĂł PrimĂ ria. Codi: MP1040. Curs acadĂšmic 2014-2015La qĂŒestiĂł que planteja aquest treball es el valor educatiu que tĂ© el patrimoni histĂČric com a recurs didĂ ctic quan es treballa amb una metodologia per projectes. Sâha estudiat que aixĂČ Ă©s possible agafant com a exemple un monument histĂČric de la localitat de BetxĂ, en este cas, el Palau-Castell. Sâha analitzat el que aporta lâeducaciĂł patrimonial en lâalumnat, Ă©s a dir, els valors que adquireixen amb lâestudi del seu patrimoni en relaciĂł a lâĂ rea de les CiĂšncies Socials. Lâestudi del tema ens ha conduit a altres aspectes relacionats amb el patrimoni, com sĂłn la sensibilitzaciĂł, la diversitat cultural o els espais formals i no formals. TambĂ© sâha fet menciĂł a la metodologia per projectes que es du a terme per a que lâestudi del patrimoni siga significatiu per als alumnes, i sâha explicat perquĂš la proposta es dirigeix a lâalumnat de primer cicle de PrimĂ ria. A mĂ©s, sâhan establert diversos continguts que tenen relaciĂł amb lâestudi del patrimoni, el seu valor educatiu i el treball per projectes, al igual com els criteris dâavaluaciĂł i les competĂšncies bĂ siques.
Per observar lâefectivitat dâaquesta proposta, sâha seguit un procĂ©s dâobservaciĂł durant tota la duraciĂł de la seua aplicaciĂł didĂ ctica en lâaula dâuna escola en el primer curs de PrimĂ ria. Sâha utilitzat el mĂštode per projectes per a dur a terme lâestudi del monument de la localitat, el Palau-Castell de BetxĂ per comparar lâavaluaciĂł inicial i lâavaluaciĂł final i poder aixĂ, arribar a unes conclusions
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