NO EVIDENCE THAT REASONED ANALYSIS IMPAIRS THE ACCURACY OF (OR CONFIDENCE IN) SPORTS FORECASTS

When making decisions, people can either rely on a gut feeling or engage in reasoned analysis to make a choice. Past research has made competing claims on whether relying on gut feelings or reasoned analysis leads to better decisions. However, these competing claims may be due to the types of decisions being made. Relying on gut feelings has been demonstrated to be superior in judgments about attitudes and leads to greater post-decision satisfaction. However, prior research demonstrating the benefits of gut feelings has used subjective and mostly unverifiable criteria for which to judge the quality of a decision. On the other hand, reasoned analysis has largely been found to be beneficial in other tasks that have an objective, verifiable outcome or criterion for which to judge the quality of a decision. Here, we explore a potential exception to this, sports forecasting. Prior research has demonstrated that relying on gut feelings leads people to make more accurate forecasts about the outcome of sporting events. The first aim of the current research was to replicate this result. However, across the 5 experiments reported here, we see no evidence that relying on a gut feeling increases the accuracy of sports forecasts. The second aim of the current work was to extend prior research to examine how confidently people hold sports forecasts made based on gut feelings and reasoned analysis. We further extend prior work by examining how individual differences affect and interact with the experimental manipulation of how people make decisions. In these additional lines of inquiry, we first saw no evidence supporting the hypothesis that relying on gut feelings increases peoples’ confidence in their choices. Second, we observed that individual differences did not predict the accuracy of peoples’ forecasts or how confident they were about their forecasts. We conclude that relying on a gut feeling or reasoned analysis is unlikely to affect sports forecasting. Therefore, sports forecasts may be a boundary condition for which gut feelings and reasoned analysis arrive at the same decision and the benefits of relying on gut feelings may be restricted to subjective judgments and individual post-decision evaluations

Privacy-Preserving Image Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks

The process of image classification using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) often relies on access to large, annotated datasets and the use of cluster or cloud-based computing resources. However, many classification applications such as those in healthcare or defense introduce privacy concerns that prevent the collection of such data and the use of pre-existing large scale computing systems. Although many solutions to privacy preserving machine learning have previously been explored, the added computational complexity incurred with training on encrypted values inhibits these systems from executing in real-time. One of the most promising solutions that facilitates secure machine learning is secure multi-party computation (MPC), which relies on segmenting data across multiple devices such that the original data cannot be reconstructed without recombining each of the data segments. This thesis explores the efficacy of training CNNs on encrypted data using MPC techniques and utilizes several optimization techniques to lessen the computational and communication overheads incurred from doing so. The goals are to create a privacy-preserving CNN framework that achieves testing accuracy similar to a non-secure model while introducing the least amount of computational overhead. To this end, a multi-party encryption scheme was used to encrypt all floating point values used in training, and federated learning was incorporated to reduce the effects of the computational overhead by parallelizing the training of the network. The developed secure CNN was able to achieve validation accuracy within 1.1-2.8% of a baseline CNN on the MNIST dataset and 9.9-19.4% on the CIFAR-10 dataset. This decreased accuracy is caused by rounding errors incurred by performing multiple continuous arithmetic computations in the secure domain during training, however the accuracy results of the secure CNN indicate that training can be performed on encrypted values. The cost of performing training on encrypted values was found to range from between 8 - 21x more computation time in comparison to a non-secure baseline implementation due to the added computational complexity and communication overhead required to perform training on secure values. This additional training time, however, was shown to be able to be mitigated through the use of federated averaging by performing training on multiple devices in parallel

Workers Head Protection Preferences in Construction

Head injuries are one of the most common ways workers are injured on a construction site, but head protection has not evolved over the last few decades. A new style of head protection, a safety helmet is being introduced to better protect workers, but the new style has not been widely adopted. A survey was conducted to determine workers preferences when choosing head protection and 31 responses were collected. 68% of the respondents currently wear a safety helmet, but 60% of the respondents would choose a traditional helmet if given the choice. 73% workers with more than 5 years of experience preferred a traditional helmet, while 50% of the workers with less than 5 years of experience preferred a safety helmet. The respondents made it clear that comfort was the most important feature to them when they choose head protection. The appearance of head protection was not the most important factor to the more experienced workers, but some respondents voiced that they do not understand why the design needs to change. Helmets are still very new to construction workers on the west coast, but with more companies introducing the helmets on jobsites, workers will gain a wider acceptance for them

Brecht, Bertolt. Más de cien poemas.

Sin resume

Witte, Bernd (ed.), Goethe-Handbuch.

Sin resume

Friedrich II. von Preussens De la littérature allemande. Zum historischen Standort des Aufsatzes und zu seiner Übersetzung im Spanischen. Literarische und kulturhistorische Aspekte

Se reexamina el concepto de literatura que está en la base del ensayo sobre la literatura alemana (1780) de Federico II, que es un concepto tradicional y mucho más amplio que el que ahora utilizamos, pues se refiere a las letras en general y no a la literatura como ‘bellas letras’: se propone como posible instigador del ensayo a F. M. von Grimm que había publicado en 1750 dos Cartas sobre la literatura alemana en París. Ello conduce a concluir que las susceptibilidades que el ensayo generó entre los autores alemanes de la época y que repercute todavía en las discusiones del siglo XX se basa en un malentendido de las intenciones del autor. Este malentendido no se extiende a España, donde la sólida fama del monarca por un lado y el interés iluminista por el otro llevó a que se privilegiaran los aspectos pedagógicos y las intenciones formativas del breve libro. Se discute también la fecha de una reseña editada en 1781 en el Correo Literario y su incidencia en la traducción, publicada bajo siglas hasta ahora no comprendidas en 1787.The concept of literature used by Frederick II, King of Prussia, in his essay on German Literature is reexamined in this paper. We propose as one of the instigators for writing the original essay Friedrich Melchior von Grimm, who wrote two articles on German Literature in 1750, years before his famous Correspondence Littéraire. The concept of literature as used in the essay is a traditional concept, much broader than we use it nowadays, for it refers to all written products, not to literature as “belles lettres”. This means that some suspicacies which came about among the German authors of the time and which have still been discussed during the XXth Century are based on a faulty understanding of the author’s meaning. This misunderstanding does not extend to Spain, since the Prussian monarchs solid fame abroad and the illuminist interests in Spain led to reception, in the first instance, of the essays pedagogical aspects and formative intentions. W discuss also a review which was published in the Correo Literario in 1781 and its incidence in the Spanish translation, which was published anonymously in 1787

Colaboradores de Brecht.

Sin resume

Movilización de información en el Ordenamiento Territorial de Bosques Nativos de Argentina.: La heterogeneidad de los mapeos provinciales y la institucionalización de la problemática ambiental

In this paper we propose a geographical analysis highlighting the social and political role of environmental information in the implementation of complex legal systems aimed at regulating the advance of the agricultural frontier in South America; we present a case-study focusing on the Argentine Law on Forests ("Ley de Bosques") of 2007. In order to curb deforestation, this law requires every Argentine province to draw a native forest land planning map ("OTBN") classifying forests according to their conservation priority and sets up a scheme of financial incentives for landowners, within the constitutional framework of "minimum common environmental standards" ("presupuestos mínimos de protección"). By exploring the heterogeneity of the mapping processes across provinces we try to shed some light on their political implications. A geographical description of the patterns followed by the classification of forests in the different provinces, of the kinds of information mobilized by the actors, and of the methods employed to draw the land planning maps reveals that very little ecological information was actually used, that no new information was created specifically for the OTBN, and that no explicit mapping methods were applied, which resulted in extremely different ways of producing the maps. These results show that the implementation of the Ley de Bosques is backed by a feeble information basis and is far from responding to scientific quality standards. This may be read, first, as a sign of the inability of the public powers to initiate a serious public discussion regarding the ecological aspects of land planning. Second, we argue that environmental information functions as an asset in the negotiations between the federal and provincial powers. Third, we suggest that, in spite of the weak capacities of state agencies we detected, the process shows an emerging capacity of the federal environmental authorities to place themselves as an arbiter of the management of natural resources in Argentina, in the face of an adverse context marked by strong opposition to the regulation of activities affecting these resources.En este artículo, proponemos un análisis geográfico del papel social y político que juega la información ambiental en la implementación de sistemas legales complejos de regulación de los avances de la frontera agropecuaria en América del Sur, tomando como caso de estudio la "Ley de Bosques" argentina (2007). En el marco de esta ley, cada provincia argentina tuvo que elaborar un mapa de Ordenamiento Territorial de Bosques Nativos (OTBN), tendiente a reducir la tasa de deforestación mediante una jerarquización de sus bosques, el establecimiento de mecanismos de incitación financiera destinados a los productores rurales, dentro del marco constitucional de las "normas de presupuestos mínimos de protección" ambiental. Este artículo explora la heterogeneidad de estos procesos de mapeo, con el objetivo de analizar su significado político. Mediante una descripción geográfica de las lógicas de clasificación de bosques en varias provincias, del tipo de información movilizada por los actores, y de los métodos de mapeo, se pone en evidencia que la escasez de información ecológica movilizada, la ausencia de creación de información específica para los OTBN, así como la ausencia de explicitación de métodos de mapeo habilitaron formas muy dispares de elaboración. Estos resultados demuestran que la implementación de la Ley de Bosques está respaldada en una información fragmentaria y muy lejos de responder a cánones de calidad científica. Esta situación puede ser interpretada primero como el signo de una incapacidad de los poderes públicos para dar espacio político a una discusión de fondo sobre la dimensión ecológica del ordenamiento territorial. Segundo, como el signo de que la información ambiental sirve como variable de negociación entre los poderes federales y las provincias. Tercero, y no obstante lo dicho anteriormente, demostraría una incipiente capacidad de instancias del Estado federal para ubicarse como árbitro en la gestión de recursos naturales en Argentina, a pesar de un contexto desfavorable de fuerte oposición a la regulación de las actividades que los afectan

La ley de bosques y la construcción del federalismo ambiental en Argentina

En este trabajo exploro los desafíos que enfrenta la coordinación de las políticas ambientales en el contexto del federalismo argentino, tomando como caso de estudio la implementación de la ley 26.331 de Presupuestos Mínimos de Protección Ambiental de los Bosques Nativos (“Ley de Bosques”), a partir del análisis de instrumentos normativos (leyes, decretos, resoluciones del COFEMA) y otros documentos, y de entrevistas a funcionarios nacionales y provinciales. Según expongo, a lo largo del proceso de aplicación de la ley 26.331 emerge una modalidad de coordinación entre Nación y provincias en materia ambiental que se puede caracterizar como un federalismo cooperativo dinámico, y que implica una distribución negociada de funciones y competencias entre los niveles de gobierno. Esta modalidad reviste una originalidad considerable, ya que, como muestro en las secciones iniciales del trabajo, la coordinación entre Nación y provincias en materia ambiental anteriormente no había encontrado canales eficaces. En efecto, si bien existían dos mecanismos concurrentes de coordinación, uno habilitado por la Constitución de 1994 y el otro por la existencia del Consejo Federal del Medio Ambiente (COFEMA) como órgano interjurisdiccional de coordinación, solo con la implementación de la ley 26.331 estos dos mecanismos comienzan a interactuar de manera constructiva; previamente el COFEMA había buscado más bien bloquear la aplicación del mecanismo habilitado por la Constitución. En la implementación de la Ley de Bosques, en cambio, este órgano juega un rol clave para la elaboración de una política ambiental enmarcada en el mecanismo preconizado por la Constitución. A través de una distribución dinámica de tareas y funciones, se establece gradualmente una política ambiental coordinada de alcance nacional. Entiendo que la relativa ineficacia de la protección de los bosques nativos en términos de reducción de la deforestación no debe opacar la importancia de este logro institucional

Normas locales de uso del territorio en dos comunidades del norte santiagueño

In this paper I describe the local land use regulations in two peasant communities in northern Santiago del Estero (Argentina) and discuss their implications for forest policies. Based on data collected in the context of technical assistance work for the national program Bosques Nativos y Comunidad (Native Forests and Communites) I begin by describing the local norms of land use in both communities, an under studied topic in the literature. I also discuss how the norms and technical proposals regarding the use of forests in Argentina are inappropriate for these actors, who remain, thus, illegal.En este trabajo describo las normas locales de uso del territorio en dos comunidades campesinas del norte de Santiago del Estero y discuto sus implicaciones para las políticas forestales. A partir de datos recabados en el marco de trabajos de asistencia técnica para el proyecto nacional Bosques Nativos y Comunidades, comienzo describiendo las normas locales de uso en ambas comunidades, un tema poco estudiado en la literatura. Luego discuto cómo las normas y propuestas técnicas relativas al uso de los bosques en Argentina son inapropiadas para este tipo de actores, dejándolos en la ilegalidad