Structural VAR identification in asset markets using short-run market inefficiencies

We impose a structure on the short-run market inefficiencies in the asset markets and use this structure to identify a structural vector autoregressive model. This novel identification method is based on more reasonable assumptions than the standard approaches and also gives estimates for inefficiency measures in the markets, which are important on their own. Applying our method on the major European stock markets, we find that while the UK shocks were dominant in Europe until 1999, German innovations have been more important since 1999. We also find that the pattern of inefficiencies are consistent with the rational inattention model of Sims (2003).Structural VAR; Overreaction and Underreaction; Stock Market

Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners

Using a Factor Structural Vector Autoregressive (FSVAR) model and monthly GDP growth forecasts during 1995-2003, we find that Indian economy responds largely to domestic and Asian common shocks, and much less to shocks the from the West. However, when we exclude the Asian crisis period from our sample, the Western factor comes out as strong as the Asian factor contributing 16% each to the Indian real GDP growth, suggesting that the dynamics of transmission mechanism is time-varying. Our methodology on the use of forecast data can help policy makers of especially developing countries with frequent economic crises and data limitations to adjust their policy targets in real time.

How Far Ahead Can We Forecast? Evidence From Cross-country Surveys

Using monthly GDP forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc. for 18 developed countries reported over 24 different forecast horizons during 1989-2004, we find that the survey forecasts do not have much value when the horizon goes beyond 18 months. Using two alternative approaches to measure the flow of new information in fixed-target survey forecasts, we found that the biggest improvement in forecasting performance comes when the forecast horizon is around 14 months. The dynamics of information accumulation over forecast horizons can provide both the forecasters and their clients with an important clue in their selection of the timing and frequency in the use of forecasting services. The limits to forecasting that these private market forecasters exhibit are indicative of the current state of macroeconomic foresight.

How quickly do forecasters incorporate news? Evidence from cross-country surveys

Using forecasts from Consensus Economics Inc., we provide evidence on the efficiency of real GDP growth forecasts by testing whether forecast revisions are uncorrelated. As the forecast data used are multi-dimensional—18 countries, 24 monthly forecasts for the current and the following year and 16 target years—the panel estimation takes into account the complex structure of the variance–covariance matrix due to propagation of shocks across countries and economic linkages among them. Efficiency is rejected for all 18 countries: forecast revisions show a high degree of serial correlation. We then develop a framework for characterizing the nature of the inefficiency in forecasts. For a smaller set of countries, the G-7, we estimate a VAR model on forecast revisions. The degree of inefficiency, as mananifested in the serial correlation of forecast revisions, tends to be smaller in forecasts of the USA than in forecasts for European countries. Our framework also shows that one of the sources of the inefficiency in a country’s forecasts is resistance to utilizing foreign news. Thus the quality of forecasts for many of these countries can be significantly improved if forecasters pay more attention to news originating from outside their respective countries. This is particularly the case for Canadian and French forecasts, which would gain by paying greater attention than they do to news from the USA and Germany, respectively.Consensus economics; forecast inefficiency; GMM; VAR; panel data

Atypical Presentation of Periodic Paralysis: A Case Report

Hypokalemic periodic paralysis (HPP) is a kind of periodic paralysis, which is a heterogeneous group of muscle diseases. It is characterized by episodes of flaccid and sudden muscle weakness. Here, we present a case of HPP. The patient was referred to our department because of severe dizziness and fall. After a comprehensive evaluation, a markedly low potassium was detected. The patient’s symptoms resolved after replacement of potassium and he was discharged without deficits. Even though the literature reports an association with exercise, carbohydrate load, and stress, further workup in our patient revealed no association with these precipitants. A proper differential diagnosis should rule out other causes of weakness and paralysis, thus allowing a timely treatment

Towards a Green and Sustainable Software

International audienceInformation and Communication Technologies (ICTs) are responsible around 2% of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions [1]. On the other hand, the use of mobile devices (smartphone, tablet, etc.) is continually increasing. Due to the accessibility of the Internet and the cloud computing, users will use more and more software applications which will cause even an increasing effect on gas emission. Thus, an important research question is "how can we reduce or limit the energy consumption related to ICT and, in particular, related to software?" For a long time, proposed solutions focused only on the hardware design, however in recent years the software aspects have also become important. Our first objective is to compare the studies in the research area of energy efficient/green software. Relying on this survey, we will propose a methodology to measure the energy consumed by software at runtime

Radiology findings and non-invasive ventilation response

There is a considerable variation in NIV among hospitals, regions and countries although it is a simple and useful method. Thepatient should be monitored via subjective response (respiratory distress, consciousness, problems related to mask and airflow),physiological responses (respiration rate, respiratory effort, air leakage) and patient-ventilator compliance (gas exchange, pulseoximetry, arterial blood gases). Normalization in respiration rate within 1 or 2 hours after initiation of treatment is one of the mostimportant markers for recovery. The goal is to maintain respiration rate between 20 and 30 breaths/minute. Reduction in intercostaland supraclavicular retractions, paradoxical respiration and sympathetic activity indicate success of treatment. Arterial bloodgases are measured within first 2 hours in order to assess pH and CO2; and as needed thereafter. In general, NIV is assessed byarterial blood gases, hemodynamic parameters and several laboratory tests. There is limited number of studies in NIV. Here, weaimed to assess radiological implications of gas distribution within lung tissue during NIV therapy

STRATEGIC ELEMENT IN HEALTH, OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT: EXAMPLE OF SELCUK UNIVERSITY MEDICAL FACULTY HOSPITAL

Today, transferring resources to the health sector, distribution of transferred resources between health care services, use of resources and quality of provided services are very important in countries. When it became clear that the growing importance of strategic management and development of institutions are connected to provide improvements not only in a sub-unit but also in all sub-unit and in an integrated manner, researches carried out in hospitals reached holistic and administrative size. For a holistic assessment managers focused on the measurement of hospital performance. In this study, we made the operational and financial data analysis of the Hospital of Selcuk University Faculty of Medicine that was established in 2001 and started it’s activities in 2009. In this context, firstly some basic financial ratios were calculated by ratio analysis method based on the hospital's balance sheet. In the study second, medical statistics which described as operational data were analyzed. In addition some assessment and recommendations were made by comparing basic analysis results to overall Turkey. In this way, the hospital's current financial and operational performances have comparatively been evaluated

A Green approach to save energy consumed by software

International audienceThe availability of various services (i.e. eBank, eHospital) through the cloud has facilitated daily lives. It allows to make energy and money savings by preventing people from moving to accomplish a small task (for instance see his account at the bank). Furthermore, the availability of these services through mobile devices and their widely usage has a positive impact on energy saving. It is also worthwhile to consider technology addicts developing/using applications or software when estimating the growing impact of software on energy consumption