The Ultimate Source of Inflation: A Microfoundation of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

The paper explores a fundamental mechanism of inflation by explicitly including a governmentfs optimization problem into a general equilibrium model assuming a Leviathan government. The result is clear- cut and beautiful: inflation is caused by the difference of the time preference rates between a government and households. This is an inevitable consequence of heterogeneity in time preference rates between a government and households. The model can be seen as a unified model that explains various types of inflation, e.g. hyperinflation, chronic inflation, disinflation and deflation, by this single mechanism. The model shows that inflation has the intrinsic nature of persistence, i.e. inflation rates have a unit root.Inflation; Deflation; The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level; Demand for Money

The Optimal Quantity of Money Consistent with Positive Nominal Interest Rates

The Friedman rule is strongly immune to most model modifications although it has not actually been observed. The Friedman rule implicitly assumes that a government is perfectly under the control of the representative household. This paper shows that, if a government is not perfectly under the control of the representative household, but also pursues political objectives, the optimal quantity of money generally is accompanied by positive nominal interest and inflation rates through the simultaneous optimization of government and the representative household. The fact that nominal interest and inflation rates are usually positive conversely implies that a government usually pursues political objectives.The Optimal Quantity of Money; The Friedman rule; Inflation; The fiscal theory of the price level; Leviathan

The Cause of the Great Inflation: Interactions between the Government and the Monetary Policymakers

The paper offers a new explanation for the cause of the Great Inflation by constructing a model that explicitly separates the roles of government and monetary policymakers. A mechanism that inflation can accelerate even if an inflation target is low is uncovered. The model solves the puzzle of the observed high inflation target during the Great Inflation and indicates that the policy errors at the time were not solely attributed to the monetary policymakers but made in the process of interaction between the governments and the monetary policymakers. The model is consistent with the international aspect of the Great Inflation.The Great Inflation; Inflation; Persistence; Monetary policy

A Mechanism of Inflation Differentials and Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area

This paper examines the mechanism of persistent inflation differentials, current account imbalances, and fiscal deficits in the euro area by constructing a multi-country model in which the optimization behaviors of governments as well as those of households, firms, and the European Central Bank are explicitly incorporated. The model indicates that governments can temporarily adhere to their own intrinsic preferences because fiscal policies are not unified in the euro area. This behavior generates problems, such as inflation differentials, and the stability and growth pact does not appear to be sufficiently effective in preventing such deviations. The results in this paper imply that the balance between national sovereignty and economic stability should be shifted more to the side of stability and that the euro area has to become more politically unified. In addition, the inflation differentials provide clear evidence that inflation acceleration is not caused by monetary policies but by government behavior because monetary policies are unified in the euro area whereas fiscal policies are not.The euro; Monetary union; Inflation; Inflation differential; Current account imbalance; Fiscal deficit; Time preference; The European Central Bank; The stability and growth pact

Endogenous Growth Models in Open Economies: A Possibility of Permanent Current Account Deficits

The paper explores the impacts of heterogeneity in degree of relative risk aversion on the balance on current account in a two-country endogenous growth model. It concludes that, like the heterogeneity of demographic changes, the heterogeneity in degree of relative risk aversion generates persisting current account deficits. The deficit continues permanently, but its ratio to output stabilizes. With evidence that the degree of relative risk aversion in Japan is relatively higher than that in the U.S., there is a possibility that the persisting bilateral trade deficit of the U.S. with Japan is partially generated by this mechanism.Current account; Trade deficits; Capital flows; Endogenous growth; Risk aversion

A More Realistic Endogenous Time Preference Model and the Slump in Japan

This paper presents a more realistic endogenous time preference model, incorporating the property that impatience decreases as consumption increases. The model overcomes a serious drawback of the existing model, which needs the assumption of increasing impatience. The new model is applied to the Japanese economy, which has been mired in a persistent slump since the early 1990s, and the hypothesis that a time preference rate shift is the main cause of the slump is explored. The estimated time preference rate clearly shows that an upward time preference shift of about 2% occurred in Japan.Time preference, Uncertainty, Japanese economy, Business fluctuations

The Bad Government: A Source of Uncertainty and Business Fluctuations

Uncertainty represented by volatilities in equity markets has been observed to be time-variable and lead output fluctuations. In the rational expectation framework, uncertainty with this nature needs exogenous variables with time-varying volatilities, but technology, tastes and fiscal and monetary policies do not seem suitable for such variables. The paper contends that supervisions and law enforcement that reduce cheatings in contracts is one of the ultimate sources of uncertainty. The cheating plays an important role for uncertainty since it is the origin of noisy price observations that makes an economy uncertain in the framework of rational expectation approximate equilibria.Uncertainty, Rational expectation approximate equilibria, Imperfect commitment, Supervision, Business fluctuations

A Model of Total Factor Productivity Built on Hayek’s View of Knowledge: What Really Went Wrong with Socialist Planned Economies?

Because Hayek’s view goes beyond the Walrasian framework, his descriptive arguments on socialist planned economies are prone to be misunderstood. This paper clarifies Hayek’s arguments by using them as a basis to construct a model of total factor productivity. The model shows that productivity depends substantially on the intelligence of ordinary workers. The model indicates that the essential reason for the reduced productivity of a socialist economy is that, even though human beings are imperfect and do not know everything about the universe, they are able to utilize their intelligence to innovate. Decentralized market economies are far more productive than socialist economies because they intrinsically can fully utilize human beings’ intelligence, but socialist planned economies cannot, in large part because of the imagined perfect central planning bureau that does not exist.Hayek; Market economy; Socialist planned economy; Total factor productivity; Innovation; Experience curve effect; China

A New Asymptotically Non-Scale Endogenous Growth Model

The paper explores an endogenous growth model in which scale effects asymptotically vanish and an economy grows without population growth. The key mechanism behind these features is substitution between investing in capital and in knowledge when firms face growing uncompensated knowledge spillovers. The model shows that firms invest more in capital than in knowledge and thus scale effects asymptotically evaporate as the number of population and thus uncompensated knowledge spillovers increase, and an economy grows without population growth.Endogenous growth; Scale effects; Non scale model; Uncompensated knowledge spillover

An Estimate of the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution in a Production Economy

The elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) at the macro level has been estimated mostly based on endowment economy models and these estimates are very sensitive to the choice of interest rates that are used for estimation. Estimates based on production economy models do not need information on interest rates but require endogenous growth models that are free from both scale effects and the strong influence of population growth. Such a model is constructed and EIS is estimated without information on interest rates. The result indicates that EIS at the macro level is as low as 0.09.The elasticity of intertemporal substitution; The degree of relative risk aversion; Production economy; Endogenous growth model