The Growth-Interest Rate Cycle in the United States and its Consequences for Emerging Markets

At the time of writing there were widespread concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. There is conclusive evidence that the pace of growth has slowed, which has prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on two occasions (a total of 100 basis points thus far). As usual, when faced with this kind of turning point, analysts and policy makers alike wonder whether the United States will achieve a “soft landing” or whether the downturn is more serious and protracted—in the worst scenario, the new weakness could signal the end of the new economy. Furthermore, recent inflation surprises have not been encouraging, as higher-thanexpected inflation numbers may curtail the Federal Reserve’s desire and ability to act countercyclically. In this paper, we do not attempt to provide any insights into what lies ahead for the U.S. economy. Our focus is on gaining a better understanding of how the U.S. business cycle, its associated monetary policy cycle, and their interaction affect developing countries. The question of North-South linkages is hardly a new one; the role of trade and primary commodity markets in linking developed and developing countries has a long history (see, for instance, Prebisch, 1950 and Singer, 1950). The links between debtor and creditor nations are also not new (see Diaz- Alejandro, 1984, Dornbusch, 1985, and Calvo, Leiderman, and Reinhart, 1993). Indeed, what is “new” is that some links that had been thought to be extinct have revived in recent years while some “old” links have weakened. As Bordo and Eichengreen (1998) observe, the decade of the 1990s shares some of the features of an earlier age of globalization and high capital mobility prior to World War I; namely, portfolio capital flows to emerging markets have re-emerged as an important link between northern lenders and southern borrowers. This revival is particularly pronounced in the larger Latin American countries. Some of the traditional links, however, may have weakened, as many countries in Asia and Latin America have successfully diversified their exports away from primary commodities. Hence, terms-of-trade shocks may (in some cases) play a smaller role today than in the past. Both of these observations would suggest that, in general, trade/commodity price links may have weakened while financial links may have become stronger. However, one must be cautious in interpretation owing to the large variation across countries in the degree of trade and capital market integration. While the share of primarycommodities in Mexico’s exports has declined dramatically in the past 30 years, the importance of U.S. markets, owing to NAFTA, has soared, which suggests that the trade channel is quantitatively important in the Mexican case.2 These are the questions we analyze. Our focus is on how developments in the United States affect capital flows and growth in emerging market countries across various regions and country groups.

Thermal analysis as a microstructure prediction tool for A356 aluminium parts solidified under various cooling conditions

Thermal analysis technique has been used for a long time, in both ferrous and nonferrous industries for evaluating the metallurgical quality of the liquid metal before casting. However, obtaining a proper microstructure in a standard cup does not ensure that the microstructure is correct in real parts which may solidify at very different cooling rates. For this study, alloy A356 with different metal quality in terms of modification and grain refinement was tested. Different cooling rates were obtained by using cylindrical test samples with various diameters cast in sand and metallic moulds. The correlation between microstructure features such as grain size, modification rate and secondary dendrite arm spacing (SDAS) measured in the standard thermal analysis cup with those obtained in the cylindrical test parts has been investigated. Thus, knowing the thermal modulus and the mould type it is possible to establish the required grain size and modification rate in the standard cup in order to get a desired structure in a real part. Corrective actions can then be taken in order to improve the metallurgical quality before casting the part

Preventing Internal COVID-19 Outbreaks within Businesses and Institutions: A Methodology Based on Social Networks Analysis for Supporting Occupational Health and Safety Services Decision Making

This study aims at developing and demonstrating in a real case study a methodology for supporting Occupational Health and Safety Services in the design and assessment of preventive measures to reduce the risks of COVID-19 outbreaks within their entities. The proposed methodology applies the concepts from Social Network Analysis (SNA) to the current challenge of preventing risks of contagion of viruses like SARS-COV-2 among employees. For this purpose, the authors consider a network of employees whose interaction is caused by triggers, which are defined as common circumstances between two workers that may result in contagion, like sharing an office or participating in the same management board. The network cohesion is then evaluated, and those core nodes, which are the most significant contributors to its integration, are identified to be addressed in the design of the preventive measures. The impact of the designed preventive measures on the networks’ cohesion is assessed for its prioritization and further deployment. The methodology has been demonstrated in a real case, a Spanish Research Center, providing promising results in a quick and easy manner. The objective insights provided by its application were demonstrated as very valuable for the Occupational Health and Safety Services in the design and evaluation of the set of preventing measures to be implemented before the return of the employees to the facilities after the Spanish confinement period. The current COVID-19 outbreak brings the need to develop tools and methods to support businesses and institutions in the use of SNA for preventing outbreaks among their employees. Although some literature does exist in the field of SNA application in epidemiology, its adaptation for extensive use by the Occupational and Health Services is still a challenge

Thermal analysis applied to estimation of solidification kinetics of Al–Si aluminium alloys

Evaluation of solidification kinetics by thermal analysis is a useful tool for quality control of Al–Si melts before pouring provided it is rapid and highly reproducible. Series of thermal analysis records made with standard cups are presented that show good reproducibility. They are evaluated using a Newton’s like approach to get the instantaneous heat evolution and from it solidification kinetics. An alternative way of calculating the zero line is proposed which is validated by the fact that the latent heat of solidification thus evaluated is within 5% of the value calculated from thermodynamic data. Solidification kinetics was found highly reproducible provided appropriate experimental conditions were achieved: high enough casting temperature for the cup to heat up to the metal temperature well before solidification starts; and equal and homogeneous temperatures of the metal and of the cup at any time in the temperature range used for integration

Zircónia, Alternativa Estética ao Titânio em Implantes Dentários

Os implantes dentários foram usados desde muitos anos para substituir os dentes perdido ou comprometidos. Estos implantes são fabricados com materiais biocompatíveis com boa resistência mecânica e a corrosão. Sem dúvida o material mais usado para a fabricação de implantes dentários é o titânio. No entanto por problemas estéticos associados à cor metálica do titânio, nos últimos anos se tem sugerido implantes e pilares feitos de materiais cerâmicos tipo zircônia, com uma cor semelhante ao dos dentes naturais como material alternativo. Neste trabalho realiza-se uma revisão bibliográfica dos resultados das investigações según as quais a zircônia está a surgir como substituto dos implantes de titânio. Os resultados dos estudos in vitro e in vivo apontan a zircônia como material bioinerte, não reabsorvíbel, com excelente resistência à corrosão e ao desgaste, alta resistência à flexão e à fratura, baixa condutividade térmica, uma cor marfil semelhante à cor do dente natural. Além disso amostra uma baixa tasa de adesão microbiana promovendo uma menor probabilidade de infeções dentárias. Do ponto de vista biológico, a zircônia tem vido demonstrando pouco infiltrado inflamatorio e uma boa integração aos tecidos moles. A evidência para um veredicto final está incompleta e o campo esta-se a transformar em muitas maneiras. Porém em um mundo com uma demanda estética cada vez mais elevada, a cerâmica é mais progressivamente popular na industria dentária. Hoje em día, a zircônia é amplamente usada para restaurações em cerâmica sem metal, no entanto os trabalhos usados estão propondo a necessidade de estudos a tempos mais compridos após a restauração para medir a tasa de sucesso. Apesar de tudo, o uso de implantes de zircônia poderia ser uma alternativa ao titânio para uma solução de implante não metálic

Penalty functions over a cartesian product of lattices

In this work we present the concept of penalty function over a Cartesian product of lattices. To build these mappings, we make use of restricted dissimilarity functions and distances between fuzzy sets. We also present an algorithm that extends the weighted voting method for a fuzzy preference relation

Comparative study about the use of two and three-dimensional methods in surface finishing characterization

The increasing number of works related to the surface texture characterization based on 3D information, makes convenient rethinking traditional methods based on two-dimensional measurements from profiles. This work compares results between measurements obtained using two and three-dimensional methods. It uses three kinds of data sources: reference surfaces, randomly generated surfaces and measured. Preliminary results are presented. These results must be completed trying to cover a wider number of possibilities according to the manufacturing process and the measurement instrumentation since results can vary quite significantly between them

Study of the Effect of Cooling Rate on Eutectic Modification in A356 Aluminium Alloys

In this present work, an assessment of eutectic modification based on thermal analysis was performed on modified A356 alloy. The effect of various cooling rates which were achieved by means of casting samples with various moduli in sand and metallic moulds was investigated. Cooling curves recorded from thermocouples inserted in the centre of the samples showed characteristic undercooling and recalescence associated with (Al)-Si eutectic modification. The results showed that cooling rate has a role in observed modification level. Furthermore, differential thermal analysis was included to determine the eutectic melting temperature

Jasmonate and auxin perception : how plants keep F-boxes in check

Phytohormones regulate the plasticity of plant growth and development, and responses to biotic and abiotic stresses. Many hormone signal transduction cascades involve ubiquitination and subsequent degradation of proteins by the 26S proteasome. The conjugation of ubiquitin to a substrate is facilitated by the E1 activating, E2 conjugating, and the substrate-specifying E3 ligating enzymes. The most prevalent type of E3 ligase in plants is the Cullin-RING ligase (CRL)-type, with F-box proteins (FBPs) as the substrate recognition component. The activity of these SKP-Cullin-F-box (SCF) complexes needs to be tightly regulated in time and place. Here, we review the regulation of SCF function in plants on multiple levels, with a focus on the auxin and jasmonate SCF-type receptor complexes. We discuss in particular the relevance of protein-protein interactions and post-translational modifications as mechanisms to keep SCF functioning under control. Additionally, we highlight the unique property of SCFTIR1/AFB and SCFCOI1 to recognize substrates by forming co-receptor complexes. Finally, we explore how engineered selective agonists can be used to study and uncouple the outcomes of the complex auxin and jasmonate signaling networks that are governed by these FBPs