Specification-Driven Predictive Business Process Monitoring

Predictive analysis in business process monitoring aims at forecasting the future information of a running business process. The prediction is typically made based on the model extracted from historical process execution logs (event logs). In practice, different business domains might require different kinds of predictions. Hence, it is important to have a means for properly specifying the desired prediction tasks, and a mechanism to deal with these various prediction tasks. Although there have been many studies in this area, they mostly focus on a specific prediction task. This work introduces a language for specifying the desired prediction tasks, and this language allows us to express various kinds of prediction tasks. This work also presents a mechanism for automatically creating the corresponding prediction model based on the given specification. Differently from previous studies, instead of focusing on a particular prediction task, we present an approach to deal with various prediction tasks based on the given specification of the desired prediction tasks. We also provide an implementation of the approach which is used to conduct experiments using real-life event logs.Comment: This article significantly extends the previous work in https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91704-7_7 which has a technical report in arXiv:1804.00617. This article and the previous work have a coauthor in commo

Cyclical Occupational Choice in a Model with Rational Wage Expectations and Perfect Occupational Mobility

In many professional labor markets the number of new workers follows a cyclical time path. This phenomenon is usually explained by means of a cobweb model that is based on the assumptions of myopic wage expectations and occupational immobility. Since both assumptions are questioned by the empirical literature, we develop an alternative model that is based on the assumptions of rational wage expectations and perfect occupational mobility. Depending on the production function, the model can generate cycles in the number of workers who enter a professional labor market.Occupational choice, Rational expectations, Occupational mobility, Linear dynamics

Towards Guidelines for Preventing Critical Requirements Engineering Problems

Context] Problems in Requirements Engineering (RE) can lead to serious consequences during the software development lifecycle. [Goal] The goal of this paper is to propose empirically-based guidelines that can be used by different types of organisations according to their size (small, medium or large) and process model (agile or plan-driven) to help them in preventing such problems. [Method] We analysed data from a survey on RE problems answered by 228 organisations in 10 different countries. [Results] We identified the most critical RE problems, their causes and mitigation actions, organizing this information by clusters of size and process model. Finally, we analysed the causes and mitigation actions of the critical problems of each cluster to get further insights into how to prevent them. [Conclusions] Based on our results, we suggest preliminary guidelines for preventing critical RE problems in response to context characteristics of the companies.Comment: Proceedings of the 42th Euromicro Conference on Software Engineering and Advanced Applications, 201

Warum unterscheiden sich die langfristigen Wachstums- und Produktivitätstrends Europas und der USA?

In den sechziger Jahren lag das reale Wachstum in Europa noch über dem der USA. Danach sanken in beiden Teilen der Welt tendenziell die Wachstumsraten. Anfang der Achtziger Jahre folgte allerdings in den USA eine Phase hohen Wirtschaftswachstums, so dass die Wachstumsraten und die Beschäftigungszunahme wesentlich höher als jene in Europa sind. Diese unterschiedliche Entwicklung wird nach Prof. Bernhard Felderer, Direktor des Instituts für Höhere Studien in Wien und Professor für Volkswirtschaftslehre an der Universität zu Köln, u.a. durch die weitaus größere Anwendung neuer Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien in den USA verursacht. Der Abstand zwischen Europa und den USA in diesem Bereich, der sich in der zweiten Hälfte der neunziger Jahre vergrößert hat, ist kein Zufall, sondern mit rationalem ökonomischen Kalkül erklärbar: Die Kosten des Einsatzes neuer IKT in den Unternehmen und die Kosten des Betriebs eines privaten PC waren in Europa in den neunziger Jahren mehrfach so hoch als in den USA. Auch aufgrund der hohen Regulierungsdichte blieb Europa in den Achtziger und neunziger Jahren in der Produktivitätsentwicklung hinter den USA zurück. Diese unterschiedlichen Entwicklungstrends zwischen den USA und Europa werden sich nicht kurzfristig beseitigen lassen und in den nächsten Jahren fortbestehen.Wirtschaftswachstum, Produktivität, Europa, Vereinigte Staaten