Quarterly Economic Commentary, December 1997

For the fourth successive year, the Irish economy has performed extremely well in 1997. Real GDP is estimated to have increased by about 10½ per cent and real GNP by 9 per cent, above even the average growth rate of the previous three years. The growth has remained well balanced between exports and domestic demand, with the result that the current account of the balance of payments is estimated to have risen to 2¾ per cent of GNP while annual average employment is estimated to have increased by about 57,000 or over 4¼ per cent. Unemployment, including long term unemployment, has declined significantly, and the standardised unemployment rate for 1997 is likely to have been less than 10 per cent when final revisions are made. The public finances have been exceptionally strong, with a general government surplus having been achieved, and consumer price inflation has averaged 1½ per cent. Economic growth will continue to be rapid by historical or international standards in 1998, but considerable uncertainty surrounds the actual rate of growth that can be expected. The impact of the Asian financial crisis, and of countervailing measures by major western economies, on world output and trade cannot yet be assessed with accuracy. While currency volatility on a world basis appears set to continue, its precise evolution cannot be foreseen, and, more specifically, it is still too early for a final decision to be made on the bilateral exchange rates of the Irish pound within EMU. Making what we hope are balanced assumptions regarding such uncertainties, we forecast that real GNP will grow by about 6 per cent in 1988, implying a significant slowing of expansion in the course of the year. Total employment is projected to increase by 42,000 on an annual average basis, and the unemployment rate to decline to an average of 9¼ per cent. The public finances should remain strong, with a further general government surplus, but a major improvement over the Budget targets seems unlikely in 1998. With export growth projected to slacken and a deterioration likely in the terms of trade, the current account is forecast to fall quite sharply, although remaining in comfortable surplus. Price inflation will almost certainly accelerate, and on our assumptions the annual increase in the consumer price index seems likely to be in the region of 2¼ per cent. If the depreciation in the trade-weighted value of the Irish pound is larger and comes sooner than we have assumed, the annual average increase in prices will be greater, and could well exceed 3 per cent. This would have relatively little effect on the forecast rate of growth of real GNP in 1998, although it could alter its composition. Given the unavoidable uncertainties concerning economic prospects in 1998 and beyond, it would be most unfortunate if euphoria generated by the economic performance of the past four years were to undermine the self-discipline which was an essential contributing factor in that success. To realise the potential for sustained high growth in the coming years it is necessary that prudence and realism continue to be exercised by government, interest groups, institutions and individuals. Favourable long-term factors could be negated by short-term impatience and unrealistic expectations

Quarterly Economic Commentary, July 1997

The rapid growth of the Irish economy is continuing. It now seems likely that real GNP in 1997 will increase by about 7 per cent, compared with the annual average rise of 7Yz per cent shown in official estimates for the past three years. Annual average employment is forecast to rise by just over 50,000, and a further substantial improvement in the public finances is certain, with the EBR perhaps falling to about £100 million or 0.2 per cent of GNP. Some slight acceleration in the rate of consumer price inflation seems likely in the second half of the year, leading to an annual average increase of about 1% per cent. However, the achievement of the authorities in maintaining the Irish pound as one of the most stable currencies in Europe, on a trade-weighted basis, over the past twelve months should preclude a more rapid rise in prices in 1997

Quarterly Economic Commentary, October 1997

It now seems likely that real GNP will increase by about 7% per cent in 1997, marginally above the average growth rate of the pas.t three years. Growth will again be balanced, with both exports and domestic demand contributing strongly. As a consequence employment will also rise rapidly, with a net increase of over 50,000 in the annual average number at work. Despite the prolonged boom, inflation remains subdued, with the annual average increase in the consumer price index forecast at under 1% per cent, and average pay rises still generally conforming to the moderate terms of Partnership 2000. Improved collection, allied to the rapid growth of domestic demand, is leading to a massive rise in tax receipts, and a General Government Surplus in 1997 seems assured

Dependence of the Electroluminescence on the Spacer Layer Growth Temperature of Multilayer Quantum-Dot Laser Structures

Electroluminescence (EL) measurements have been performed on a set of In(Ga)As-GaAs quantum-dot (QD) structures with varying spacer layer growth temperature. At room temperature and low injection current, a superlinear dependence of the integrated EL intensity (IEL) on the injection current is observed. This superlinearity decreases as the spacer layer growth temperature increases and is attributed to a reduction in the amount of nonradiative recombination. Temperature-dependent IEL measurements show a reduction of the IEL with increasing temperature. Two thermally activated quenching processes, with activation energies of ˜ 157 meV and ˜ 320 meV, are deduced and these are attributed to the loss of electrons and holes from the QD ground state to the GaAs barriers. Our results demonstrate that growing the GaAs barriers at higher temperatures improves their quality, thereby increasing the radiative efficiency of the QD emission

The Revival of Irish Indigenous Industry 1987-1997. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, April 1998

From the 1960s until the mid-1980s, most of the growth of employment, output and exports in manufacturing industry in Ireland occurred in foreignowned multinational companies, while the performance of native Irish-owned or indigenous industry was relatively poor. Consequently, foreign-owned firms came to account for a large proportion of manufacturing in Ireland by 1987, with 43 per cent of manufacturing employment, 52 per cent of manufacturing gross output and 74 per cent of exports of manufactured products. In the period since 1987, the foreign-owned multinational component of industry in Ireland has continued to contribute most to Irish industrial growth, with the result that by 1995 its share of total manufacturing employment increased to 47 per cent, its share of gross output increased to 65 per cent, and its share of exports increased to 82 per cent.1 Despite this continuing increase in the relative importance of foreign-owned industry, however, a major change since about 1987 has been the fact that there has been a substantial and sustained improvement in the growth performance of Irish indigenous industry. This article aims to show that, not only has the record of Irish indigenous industry been greatly improved by comparison with its own previous experience, but its growth performance over the past decade has also been stronger than that of industrial countries generally. Thus, since about 1987, the record of Irish indigenous industry has changed from one of relatively weak growth trends by international standards to one of relatively strong growth by international standards. This article brings together and analyses information from a variety of sources to document this improvement in indigenous industry, primarily by examining trends in employment, output and exports, but with reference to some other indicators as well. This involves making some estimations to fill a few important gaps in the existing data

The Naas Motorway Bypass - A Cost Benefit Analysis. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, January 1984

The paper examines the Naas Motorway Bypass which cost £16m at 1983 prices. Twelve thousand vehicles a day using the bypass save over 10 minutes between 8 am and 8 pm and 6 minutes at other times. Five thousand vehicles a day using the present route through Naas also benefit by saving 4 minutes due to reduced congestion in the town. In addition to time savings, the bypass reduces accidents and fuel costs. Ninety-one per cent of the benefits accrue in time savings. The internal rate of return on the project is estimated at 20.51 per cent, assuming 2 per cent annual traffic and income growth. The sensitivity tests of the results show that even with zero growth in incomes and traffic for twenty years, a high proportion of leisure time savings with zero value and no increase in the value of fuel savings the project would have an internal rate of return which meets the test discount rate used by the Department of Finance. The environmental aspects of the bypass are positive in terms of noise and smoke and lead pollution reduction. The impact on farm severence and natural amenities on the motorway route has been mitigated by several design features of the bypass

A molecular communication channel consisting of a single reversible chain of hydrogen bonds in a conformationally flexible oligomer

Communication of information through the global switching of conformation in synthetic molecules has hitherto entailed the inversion of chirality. Here, we report a class of oligomer through which information may be communicated through a global reversal of polarity. Ethylene-bridged oligoureas are constitutionally symmetrical, conformationally flexible molecules organized by a single chain of hydrogen bonds running the full length of the oligomer. NMR reveals that this hydrogen-bonded chain may undergo a coherent reversal of directionality. The directional uniformity of the hydrogen-bond chain allows it to act as a channel for the spatial communication of information on a molecular scale. A binding site at the terminus of an oligomer detects local information about changes in pH or anion concentration and transmits that information—in the form of a directionality switch in the hydrogen-bond chain—to a remote polarity-sensitive fluorophore. This propagation of polarity-encoded information provides a new mechanism for molecular communication

Tick-, Mosquito-, and Rodent-Bourne Parasite Sampling Designs for the National Ecological Observatory Network

Parasites and pathogens are increasingly recognized as significant drivers of ecological and evolutionary change in natural ecosystems. Concurrently, transmission of infectious agents among human, livestock, and wildlife populations represents a growing threat to veterinary and human health. In light of these trends and the scarcity of long-term time series data on infection rates among vectors and reservoirs, the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will collect measurements and samples of a suite of tick-, mosquito-, and rodent-borne parasites through a continental-scale surveillance program. Here, we describe the sampling designs for these efforts, highlighting sampling priorities, field and analytical methods, and the data as well as archived samples to be made available to the research community. Insights generated by this sampling will advance current understanding of and ability to predict changes in infection and disease dynamics in novel, interdisciplinary, and collaborative ways