Linearity Testing Against a Fuzzy Rule-based Model

In this paper, we introduce a linearity test for fuzzy rule-based models in the framework of time series modeling. To do so, we explore a family of statistical models, the regime switching autoregressive models, and the relations that link them to the fuzzy rule-based models. From these relations, we derive a Lagrange Multiplier linearity test and some properties of the maximum likelihood estimator needed for it. Finally, an empirical study of the goodness of the test is presented.fuzzy rule-based models, time series, linearity test, statistical inference

La salud tiene fronteras en la Unión Europea. Límites al reembolso de gastos médicos en los tratamientos programados

The right to receive health provisions in another member State of the European Union is based on a complex regulation, which has very heterogeneous possibilities. When the aim of the trip is to go under medical treatment previously planned, it is vital to offer the patient clear information about the responsibility for the pay of medical expenses. To answer this, and understand the significance and limits of transnational mobility for health reasons, it is necessary to carry out an integrated analysis of the diverse laws at a European and national level. The prevalence of the principle of financial balance of the national health systems justifies the restriction regarding the reimbursement of the medical expenses, which is limited to national regulation. Therefore it is relevant to analyse the main characteristics of the National Health System, the role of the main services portfolio and the complementary regional portfolios, and the issues that arise due to the health service territorial decentralisation regarding cohesion and coordination.El derecho a recibir prestaciones sanitarias en otro Estado miembro de la Unión Europea se articula en torno a una compleja normativa que alberga posibilidades muy heterogéneas. Cuando el objetivo del desplazamiento es someterse a un tratamiento médico planificado, resulta vital ofrecer al paciente información nítida sobre la responsabilidad en torno al pago de los gastos sanitarios que se generen. Para dar respuesta a este interrogante y comprender el alcance y límites de la movilidad transnacional por razones médicas, es preciso efectuar un análisis conjunto e integrado de las distintas normas comunitarias y nacionales que regulan este instituto jurídico. La prevalencia del principio de equilibrio financiero de los sistemas sanitarios nacionales justifica la restricción del reembolso de los gastos médicos únicamente a las prestaciones contempladas en las distintas legislaciones nacionales. De ahí la pertinencia del análisis de las características esenciales del Sistema Nacional de Salud, el papel de la cartera común de servicios y las carteras complementarias autonómicas y los problemas que la descentralización territorial sanitaria plantea en materia de cohesión y coordinación

Testing for Heteroskedasticity of the Residuals in Fuzzy Rule-Based Models

In this paper, we propose a new diagnostic checking tool for fuzzy rule-based modelling of time series. Through the study of the residuals in the Lagrange Multiplier testing framework we devise a hypothesis test which allows us to determine if the residual time series is homoscedastic or not, that is, if it has the same variance throughout time. This is another important step towards a statistically sound modelling strategy for fuzzy rule-based models.Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci´on (MICINN) under Project grants MICINN TIN2009- 14575 and CIT-460000-2009-4

Consideraciones éticas en torno al uso de tecnologías basadas en datos masivos en la UNED

This document draws up an ethical position about the use of massive data-based technologies is drawn, with a particular focus on the teaching and learning processes in UNED. We intend to raise awareness on the concrete risks associated with the potential advantages of using those technologies, and we set out some important questions and some possible answers to them, including nine essential cautions which can provide a sound basis for any projects requiring the use of massive data in UNED. In the first place, we explain what we understand by an ethics of care, in which the priority must be to take care of the students through the use of their data and, at the same time, to care about any data-based intervention being clean in its presumptions and bias-free. Then we consider a selection of previous works that have inspired ours, and we enumerate key questions over which any institution must ponder before starting to work with personal data. Finally, we state nine cautions that our institution adheres to and that every member of the University has been invited to deliberate upon.En este documento se dibuja una posición ética respecto al uso de tecnologías basadas en datos masivos, con atención particular al contexto de los procesos de enseñanza/aprendizaje en la UNED. Se aboga aquí por una toma de conciencia de los riesgos concretos que van aparejados con las ventajas esperables del uso de dichas tecnologías. Además, se esbozan algunas preguntas importantes y algunas respuestas posibles, incluyendo nueve cautelas esenciales, a fin de proporcionar unas bases sólidas a los proyectos que impliquen el uso de datos masivos en la UNED. Primero se expone lo que entendemos por una ética del cuidado, en la que la prioridad sea cuidar del alumnado a través del uso de datos y al mismo tiempo tener cuidado de que cualquier intervención basada en datos sea pulcra en sus presunciones y no introduzca sesgos. A continuación, se expone una selección de referentes y aproximaciones previas que han sido tenidas en cuenta y se enumeran las preguntas clave que deben guiar a cualquier institución que se plantee el trabajo con datos. Finalmente, se enuncian nueve cautelas esenciales que la institución se compromete a observar y que han sido propuestas a la comunidad universitaria para su deliberación

Tareas con tangram para favorecer el sentido espacial

El proceso de enseñanza-aprendizaje debe de estar cimentado sobre una planificación que recoja todas las decisiones que tengan relación con el desarrollo y evaluación de cada materia. Para la realización de este Trabajo Fin de Grado tendremos en cuenta las prescripciones normativas, los contenidos que deseamos trabajar, en nuestro caso los relacionados con el sentido espacial y la metodología de trabajo elegida. Así, con este trabajo se pretenden los siguientes objetivos:- Diseñar una colección de tareas que permitan la profundización en los contenidos relacionados con el sentido espacial en la Educación Primaria.- Desarrollar una propuesta de trabajo vertical en toda la etapa de Primaria.- Favorecer el uso de materiales manipulativos, en este caso TANGRAM, para el desarrollo de contenidos matemáticos.Universidad de Granada. Facultad de Ciencias de la Educación. Grado de Educación Primari

Las parejas de hecho ante la pensión de viudedad: Una revisión crítica a la luz de la última reforma legislativa

The right of the survivors of common-law partners to be beneficiaries of the widow's or widower's pension was configured in 2007 in a restrictive manner, marking important differences in treatment with respect to married couples. In addition to the formal requirements aimed at proving stable and notorious cohabitation, there was also the need to prove economic dependence on the deceased. For more than a decade, the jurisprudential doctrine of the Spanish Constitutional Court has been affirming the suitability and proportionality of this difference in treatment, considering it to be in accordance with the principle of equality and non-discrimination. Law 21/2021, of December 28, on guaranteeing the purchasing power of pensions and other measures to reinforce the financial and social sustainability of the public pension system, has introduced significant innovations in relation to this matter, moving towards a real equality between marital unions and de facto unions, in a wise legal and political decision by the legislator.El derecho de los supervivientes de parejas de hecho a ser beneficiarios de la pensión de viudedad se configuró en 2007 de un modo restrictivo, marcando importantes diferencias de trato respecto a las parejas matrimoniales. A la exigencia de requisitos formales orientados a acreditar la convivencia estable y notoria, se sumó la necesidad de demostrar dependencia económica del sujeto causante. Durante más de una década, la doctrina jurisprudencial del Tribunal Constitucional ha venido afirmando la razonabilidad y proporcionalidad de esta diferencia de trato, considerándola acorde al principio de igualdad y no discriminación. La Ley 21/2021, de 28 de diciembre, de garantía del poder adquisitivo de las pensiones y de otras medidas de refuerzo de la sostenibilidad financiera y social del sistema público de pensiones, ha introducido novedades de calado en relación a esta materia, avanzando hacia una equiparación real entre uniones matrimoniales y uniones de hecho, en una acertada decisión político-jurídica por parte del legislador ordinario

Photovoltaic Forecasting: A state of the art

International audiencePhotovoltaic (PV) energy, together with other renewable energy sources, has been undergoing a rapid development in recent years. Integration of intermittent energy sources as PV or wind power is challenging in terms of power system management in large scale systems as well as in small grids. Indeed, PV energy is a variable resource that is difficult to predict due to meteorological uncertainty. To facilitate the penetration of PV energy, forecasting methods and techniques have been used. Being able to predict the future behavior of a PV plant is very important in order to schedule and manage the alternative supplies and the reserves. In this paper we presented an overview aiming at a classification attending to the different techniques of forecasting methods used for PV or solar prediction. Finally, recent new approaches that take into account the uncertainty of the estimation are introduced. First results of these kind of models are presented

A novel tree-based algorithm to discover seismic patterns in earthquake catalogs

A novel methodology is introduced in this research study to detect seismic precursors. Based on an existing approach, the new methodology searches for patterns in the historical data. Such patterns may contain statistical or soil dynamics information. It improves the original version in several aspects. First, new seismicity indicators have been used to characterize earthquakes. Second, a machine learning clustering algorithm has been applied in a very flexible way, thus allowing the discovery of new data groupings. Third, a novel search strategy is proposed in order to obtain non-overlapped patterns. And, fourth, arbitrary lengths of patterns are searched for, thus discovering long and short-term behaviors that may influence in the occurrence of medium-large earthquakes. The methodology has been applied to seven different datasets, from three different regions, namely the Iberian Peninsula, Chile and Japan. Reported results show a remarkable improvement with respect to the former version, in terms of all evaluated quality measures. In particular, the number of false positives has decreased and the positive predictive values increased, both of them in a very remarkable manner.Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología TIN2011-28956-C00Junta de Andalucía P12-TIC-1728Instituto Ramón y Cajal (RYC) RYC-2012-1198

Deep Sequential Models for Suicidal Ideation from Multiple Source Data

This paper presents a novel method for predicting suicidal ideation from electronic health records (EHR) and ecological momentary assessment (EMA) data using deep sequential models. Both EHR longitudinal data and EMA question forms are defined by asynchronous, variable length, randomly sampled data sequences. In our method, we model each of them with a recurrent neural network, and both sequences are aligned by concatenating the hidden state of each of them using temporal marks. Furthermore, we incorporate attention schemes to improve performance in long sequences and time-independent pre-trained schemes to cope with very short sequences. Using a database of 1023 patients, our experimental results show that the addition of EMA records boosts the system recall to predict the suicidal ideation diagnosis from 48.13% obtained exclusively from EHR-based state-of-the-art methods to 67.78%. Additionally, our method provides interpretability through the t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) representation of the latent space. Furthermore, the most relevant input features are identified and interpreted medically.This work was supported in part by the Spanish MINECO under Grants TEC2015-69868-C2-1-R, TEC2016-78434-C3-3-R, and TEC2017-92552-EXP, in part by Spanish MICINN under Grant RTI2018-099655-B-I00, in part by Comunidad de Madrid under Grants IND2017/TIC-7618, IND2018/TIC-9649, Y2018/TCS-4705, and B2017/BMD-3740 AGES-CM 2CM, in part by BBVA Foundation under Deep-DARWiN - FBBVA Grant for scientific research teams 2018, in part by ISCIII under Grant PI16/01852, and in part by AFSP under Grant LSRG-1-005-16