Evaluating uncertain CO2 abatement over the very long term

Climate change research with the economic methodology of cost–benefit analysis is challenging because of valuation and ethical issues associated with the long delays between CO2 emissions and much of their potential damages, typically of several centuries. The large uncertainties with which climate change impacts are known today and the possibly temporary nature of some envisaged CO2 abatement options exacerbate this challenge. For example, potential leakage of CO2 from geological reservoirs, after this greenhouse gas has been stored artificially underground for climate control reasons, requires an analysis in which the uncertain climatic consequences of leakage are valued over many centuries. We here present a discussion of some of the relevant questions in this context and provide calculations with the top–down energy-environment-economy model DEMETER. Given the long-term features of the climate change conundrum as well as of technologies that can contribute to its solution, we considered it necessary extending DEMETER to cover a period from today until the year 3000, a time span so far hardly investigated with integrated assessment models of climate change

Exploring the causes of adverse events in hospitals and potential prevention strategies

Objectives To examine the causes of adverse events (AEs) and potential prevention strategies to minimise the occurrence of AEs in hospitalised patients. Methods For the 744 AEs identified in the patient record review study in 21 Dutch hospitals, trained reviewers were asked to select all causal factors that contributed to the AE. The results were analysed together with data on preventability and consequences of AEs. In addition, the reviewers selected one or more prevention strategies for each preventable AE. The recommended prevention strategies were analysed together with four general causal categories: technical, human, organisational and patient-related factors. Results Human causes were predominantly involved in the causation of AEs (in 61% of the AEs), 61% of those being preventable and 13% leading to permanent disability. In 39% of the AEs, patient-related factors were involved, in 14% organisational factors and in 4% technical factors. Organisational causes contributed relatively often to preventable AEs (93%) and AEs resulting in permanent disability (20%). Recommended strategies to prevent AEs were quality assurance/peer review, evaluation of safety behaviour, training and procedures. For the AEs with human and patient-related causes, reviewers predominantly recommended quality assurance/peer review. AEs caused by organisational factors were considered preventable by improving procedures. Discussion Healthcare interventions directed at human causes are recommended because these play a large role in AE causation. In addition, it seems worthwhile to direct interventions on organisational causes because the AEs they cause are nearly always believed to be preventable. Organisational factors are thus relatively easy to tackle. Future research designs should allow researchers to interview healthcare providers that were involved in the event, as an additional source of information on contributing factors.

A Structural and Dynamical Study of Late-Type, Edge-On Galaxies: I. Sample Selection and Imaging Data

We present optical (B & R) and infrared (K_s) images and photometry for a sample of 49 extremely late-type, edge-on disk galaxies selected from the Flat Galaxy Catalog of Karenchentsev et al. (1993). Our sample was selected to include galaxies with particularly large axial ratios, increading the likelihood that the galaxies in the sample are truly edge-on. We have also concentrated the sample on galaxies with low apparent surface brightness, in order to increase the representation of intrinisically low surface brightness galaxies. Finally, the sample was chosen to have no apprarent bulges or optical warps so that the galaxies represent undisturbed, ``pure disk'' systems. The resulting sample forms the basis for a much larger spectroscopic study designed to place constraints on the physical quantities and processes which shape disk galaxies. The imaging data presented in this paper has been painstakingly reduced and calibrated to allow accurate surface photometry of features as faint as 30 mag/sqr-arcsec in B and 29 mag/sqr-arcsec in R on scales larger than 10 arcsec. Due to limitations in sky subtraction and flat fielding, the infrared data can reach only to 22.5 mag/sqr-arcsec in K_s on comparable scales. As part of this work, we have developed a new method for quantifying the reliability of surface photometry, which provides useful diagnostics for the presence of scattered light, optical emission from infrared cirrus, and other sources of non-uniform sky backgrounds.Comment: scheduled to appear in the Astronomical Journal, LaTeX, 36 pages including 7 pages of figures (fig 1-2,4). A low resolution version of Figure 3 is included in JPEG format; contours are seriously degraded. A full resolution Postscript version of Figure 3 (10.6Mb,gzipped) is available through anonymous ftp at ftp://ftp.astro.washington.edu/pub/users/jd/FGC/dalcanton.f3.ps.g

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: a multi-model analysis

AbstractMexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country

A Nuclear Solution to Climate Change?

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous changes in climate. An ambitious target would be stabilization at an equivalent doubling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration. To achieve this, fossil-fuel carbon emissions in 2050 should not exceed their current level, despite an expected doubling or tripling in world demand for energy. Lacking a crystal ball that tells us the future, we simply select one possible scenario that achieves the emissions target. We assume that by 2050, world population and average per-capita energy consumption each rise by 50%, with annual world primary energy consumption reaching 900 EJ (exajoules, 1018 joules). A roughly equal contribution of 300 EJ each is assumed for conventional fossil fuels, for renewable and "decarbonized" fossil fuel sources, and for nuclear fission. This is a challenging scenario, especially because restraining the increase in average per-capita energy consumption in the face of the economic aspirations of developing countries will require substantial improvements in energy efficiency

Energy Technology Roll-Out for Climate Change Mitigation: A Multi-Model Study for Latin America

AbstractIn this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be cost-optimal in the energy sector to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison study and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from different models as well as different types of models (general versus partial equilibrium). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they play a large role in energy supply in all scenarios we inspect. This is especially true for stringent climate policy scenarios, for instance because the use of biomass in power plants in combination with CCS can yield negative CO2 emissions. We find that hydropower, which today contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in Latin America, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, typically by about 50%, but potentially by as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two- to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050. We find that in our climate policy scenarios renewable energy overall expands typically at double-digit growth rates annually, but there is substantial spread in model results for specific options such as wind and solar power: the climate policies that we simulate raise wind power in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, depending on which model is used. Also for CCS we observe large diversity in model outcomes, which reflects the uncertainties with regard to its future implementation potential as a result of the challenges this CO2 abatement technology experiences. The extent to which different mitigation options can be used in practice varies greatly between countries within Latin America, depending on factors such as resource potentials, economic performance, environmental impacts, and availability of technical expertise. We provide concise assessments of possible deployment opportunities for some low-carbon energy options, for the region at large and with occasional country-level detail in specific cases